The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s despotic regime in Syria this weekend highlights the interconnectedness of a growing number of global conflicts, revealing a harsh truth that most of us would prefer not to think too much about : World War III has already started.
Business leaders need to be aware of this and start planning accordingly.
An opposition fighter fires his AK-47 into the air to celebrate the opposition forces’ takeover. … (+)
I’m not the only one who believes this. Indeed, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co. says exactly the same thing a few weeks ago.
“World War III has already started. There are already battles on the ground that are coordinated in several countries,” he told an audience at the International Institute of Finance in late October. “The risk is extraordinary.”
The defeat of the Russian-backed regime in Syria underscores Dimon’s point. Assad would surely have been toppled by the popular uprising that began in 2011 without the direct intervention of Russian forces in 2015. Since then, the Russians, along with Iran and its proxies, have managed to maintain an otherwise untenable dictatorship, killing thousands of people. and thus displacing millions of civilians.
Until they couldn’t anymore.
The war in Ukraine sapped Russia’s strength and diminished its ability to maintain its defense of the Assad regime just as surely as Russia’s successful defense of Stalingrad strained Germany’s military might, contributing to its loss of North Africa in 1943. Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah and its allies. The attacks on Iran itself have made it difficult for Tehran to stay in the fight in Syria as well.
What we are beginning to see is an interdependence between conflicts as seemingly disparate as the war between Russia and Ukraine and the struggle between Israel and Hamas, the likes of which we have not seen since 1945. This trend is likely to continue and expand, attracting more people. countries and regions in the vortex.
This is why I say that World War III has already started – not because the United States is on the brink of war with Russia, or with China for that matter (although that may still happen) .
Although these conflicts may appear distinct at first glance, they share several characteristics that justify considering them as elements of a single, comprehensive global conflict. These include the involvement of great powers, directly or through proxies, the interweaving of political, economic and ideological objectives and the cascading impact of one conflict on others, creating a chain reaction of instability.
Much like the early stages of previous world wars, these interconnected crises are eroding the boundaries between local and global conflicts, drawing nations and alliances into a broader struggle for dominance and survival. This, more than isolated battles, is what defines a world war.
What does this mean for businesses?
Why should you care? Because this growing global conflict is going to have an ever-increasing impact on your business. This will have an impact on the global economy. This will impact your supply chain. This will have an impact on your customers.
This is already the case, directly or indirectly, and this impact will increase as the fighting spreads.
As Dimon warned: “(We) can’t take the chance that this will resolve itself. »
We must prepare, not tomorrow, but today.
Preparing for World War III means understanding the risks that global conflicts pose to your business. Once you understand these risks, you can modify your strategies to minimize these risks or develop contingency plans to mitigate them.
Preparing for World War III also means understanding the opportunities that global conflicts create for your business. Recognizing opportunities in this context does not necessarily mean exploiting conflicts for profit, but rather identifying ways in which your business can contribute positively while addressing these challenges.
Ethical opportunities may include supporting humanitarian aid efforts, investing in technologies that improve supply chain resilience, or providing resources for reconstruction and infrastructure development in affected regions. These actions not only align with corporate social responsibility, but also position your business as a trusted partner in recovery and resilience.
Business leaders must recognize that every crisis also creates opportunities, and that failing to identify and take advantage of them can be just as perilous as failing to identify and mitigate risks.
War and rumors of war
This conflict, although increasingly global in its nature and scope, will be very different from the world wars of the last century. As Clausewitz observed: “Each age had its own type of war, its own limiting conditions and its own preconceptions.”
This situation is likely to continue in fits and starts, at least in the short term. Trump may well force an end to the war in Ukraine, but I hope Russia uses this peace to rebuild and rearm before continuing its efforts to redraw the map of Europe. Before long, fighting will resume, either in Ukraine or elsewhere on NATO’s eastern front.
When that happens, the situation will be worse and the consequences bigger and broader. This is why a growing number of European leaders, from the French president Emmanuel Macron to the new chief of defense of the United Kingdom General Sir Roly Walker began warning that a full-scale war with Russia would be likely in the coming years.
As a business leader, you can’t let temporary pauses in fighting fool you into thinking the crisis is over. On the contrary, we must all prepare for a new era of global conflict.