After a masterful 4-0 victory against the Florida Panthers on Saturday, the Montreal Canadiens kept the momentum going in Tampa Bay on Sunday. The Habs, playing their best hockey of the season, outshot the Lightning 36-22 to earn a 5-2 victory.
Wild horses
The Canadiens had the worst second line in the league three weeks ago, and it wasn’t even close. They were so dominated in goal differential that almost all of the Canadiens’ -30 goal differential was on that line alone.
This weekend, we perhaps saw the emergence of a much more competitive and even respectful second line. Kirby Dach was -21 three weeks ago. It remains at that total, so this is a significant improvement – a stabilization rather than a further decline.
Throughout the season, the second trio had only scored nine goals before the arrival of Patrik Laine. Since then, they have more than doubled their total in the last 12 games. Wool gives a nice appearance to the whole line. Dach scored twice against the Panthers on Saturday and Alex Newhook had his first two assists of the season. Laine was instrumental in both goals.
Against Tampa, the line was solid again, opening the scoring. Laine is a dash to get the puck off the ground in the offensive zone and often calls on an extra defender to handle him. That led to Mike Matheson finding a wide-open Newhook who fired a one-timer into the top corner.
The acquisition of Alexandre Carrier also had a ripple effect. The arrival of Carrier allowed Kaiden Guhle to play on his left side where he is more comfortable. They are an exceptional couple with excellent chemistry. They teamed up on Montreal’s second goal, setting up Christian Dvorak.
With Carrier among the top four, David Savard was able to play his best defense of the season. Savard had easier matchups on the third pair. He also has less ice time, which he finds more manageable as he gets older. Often, a strong hockey team is simply about placing its players in the right roles.
Jake Evans is certainly enjoying his role as fourth-line center. He tears up his confrontations. In fact, the fourth highest-scoring line in the entire NHL is Evans, Emil Heineman and Joel Armia. Evans hit another into the top corner to score Montreal’s third goal.
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Evans has scored in five straight games. He has ten goals this season, which places him fourth at the club. Evans continues to make his case for a big contract and someone in the league will give it to him.
It was yet another goal from the fourth line that took over the game at the end of the third period. Heineman won a battle of strength to cause a two-on-one. He then sent a perfect pass to Armia who clocked a one-timer to take a 4-2 lead.
Right now, we have four lines rolling in the right spots, and the defense all seems comfortable with their ice time and matchups. This is a big improvement compared to a second line that collapses every game and defenders who are not comfortable with their partners and their confrontations.
Montreal is a completely different club than it was in October. In that first month, the Canadians were destroyed on an analytical basis. Every line and partnership had an expected goals number of 35% – there wasn’t a single flattering metric for the team.
This weekend, the Canadiens faced two of the strongest teams in the league on home soil, and they handled the situation fantastically. Montreal has had a 50-55 shooting share against strong teams during this impressive stretch over the last twelve games. Against poorer teams in December, Montreal has a 70-75 share.
This Christmas trip to Florida for the past three years has been that humiliating, not-so-festive season where Canadians realized they just weren’t good enough.
This year, Canadians discovered there was a lot to play for in 2025.
Wild goats
Juraj Slafkovsky is playing better hockey on the front line, but this giant young man still doesn’t realize how difficult it is to handle him physically. His choices are still often the result of a lack of confidence in his ability to win a battle.
There are many examples where he is one-on-one and his best choice is to take on a defender. Slafkovsky can use this giant frame to shield the left puck with his hands, lower his shoulder and direct his legs toward his defender. He will win these fights more times than he loses. Slafkovsky, on the contrary, mainly goes to the corner or moves out of danger zones.
He makes better passes and better choices overall, but there is so much more to do when he realizes his own potential. It is a matter of faith and experience.
Wilde Cards
No one should lead you astray. Get the truth now or get it later, but the truth will be revealed and it will matter. The truth for the Canadian is that the playoff math is extremely difficult. The hole is deep and the way out is a mountain to climb. However, bring the mountain because it is possible.
The goal for the Canadiens to qualify for the playoffs is 93 points. Montreal needs 60 points in its last 47 games. That’s a record 30 and 17 to end the season. It seems insurmountable, but look at it from a different perspective. Let’s allow recency bias to set in – instead consider the team as a new entity with Patrik Laine and Alexandre Carrier on the roster. They’re a much better team.
In his 11 games, Laine has eight goals and one assist. His arrival revitalized the power play. His arrival was transformative. Laine’s contribution was what the Canadiens management had in mind when they said the club could be in the race.
Carrier has only four games with the Canadiens, but it is evident that he has stabilized the right side to make the club considerably better defensively.
Also add Jakub Dobes to net, or in this case, subtract Cayden Primeau’s .835. Going from a .900 goalie to a .835 means the Canadiens can win a game with three goals instead of seven. Putting 15 games in the automatic loss column in the last 47 years was insurmountable. Now with Dobes, it looks like there’s a chance in these 15 games, if he’s as composed and strong as he was in his first effort.
These changes reflect a better Canadiens club in the latter half of the upcoming season. The Laine effect has produced a 7-4 record since his arrival. If the Canadiens can repeat that with three more wins than losses every 11 games, their record would be 30-17. That’s 93 points.
Taken in its massive context, 30-17 doesn’t seem possible, but 7-4 every eleven games is enough and they did it.
Look with hope, because indeed there is. And keep in mind a record of 7-4 through 11 games.
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