The reader of Vox, Jo Ní Coinnigh, asks: why does American policy (in particular the presidential election) affect not only the United States, but the whole world?
At a certain level, the answer to this question is very simple: the United States is the most powerful country in the world. So what is happening in Washington counts in the world in the same way as decisions in Rome at the height of its imperial era imported to all those who lived near its borders.
But I worry about comparison with Rome in fact subselle The importance of America for the world. Because if the ancient world was more interconnected than most appreciate it, it was not compared to the world in which we live today.
Partly, of course, it is a question of technology – starting with the most dangerous weapons ever made by humanity.
The post-secret world war policy was largely defined by the specter of nuclear war, a conflict so devastating that it cannot be won. If the United States was at war with Russia or China – or even North Korea – any use of nuclear weapons would have consequences far beyond the targets. A complete nuclear exchange between the great nuclear powers could even undermine the foundations of life on earth itself.
But even if we are not talking about the worst case -and, frankly, improbable scenarios -the United States is always global hegemony, fixing the terms of political commitment for almost everyone on the planet.
It is the most powerful country of the NATO Alliance, which is the largest alliance system in world history. The American army has bases on each populated continent. THE Dollar is global reserve currencyThe most widely accepted form of financial exchange and therefore the backbone of the world economy. American diplomats play a role in sensitive negotiations in the world, even those that may not directly affect American interests.
How could the new Trump administration affect the rest of the world?
To see how the evolution of American policies could affect the world, consider a certain number of specific political questions directly raised by the new Trump administration:
- If the United States reduces its role in NATO or completely come out, how long does (Western) peace and European stability since the Second World War last? Will Germany reset and develop nuclear weapons? Will historical European animosities be re-moved?
- Likewise, if the United States’s commitment to East Asia alliances is starting to vacillate, will Japan rearm and nuclear? Would South Korea also become nuclear? And how would China react?
- If the United States, the largest economy in the world, abandon the interest in climate action, how many other countries will they follow? What will be the consequences to warm up around the planet?
- If the United States is starting to impose significant prices on other countries, other countries will certainly retaliate. However, a basic free trade level was essential for global prosperity – being a key reason why 2008 financial crisis did not end up looking like the great depression. Will the escalation of trade war be paid for world calamity?
- If the United States abandons its traditional support for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is the far-right government of Israel annexed the West Bank?
- If the United States is indeed leaving the World Health Organization and other international public health institutions, how much will the global surveillance of diseases and research cooperation suffer?
- The United States is the global technological power, American companies making decisions on everything, of moderation of the content of the platform in the manner of developing artificial intelligence in a responsible manner. What happens if the US government gives the free reign of Silicon Valley to do whatever it likes on these fronts?
- The United States has, since the Second World War, served as a guarantor of a very important global standard – that countries do not use coercion and military force to extend their territory. This led America to wage war at Iraq in 1991 and to support Ukraine in 2022. But what happens to this already silent world standard if America begins to put pressure on Denmark To abandon Greenland, or Panama to give in the Panama canal?
I am not saying that, in each of these cases, the worst case will affect. Individually, the chances of a global economic crisis, a new pandemic, warming up exceeding 4 centigrade degreesOr a third world war remains relatively low.
The fact is rather to illustrate how essential the United States is for all these problems. As the first military, economic, diplomatic, scientific and cultural power in the world, its political decisions invariably have implications for everyone on the planet. Even the problems that seem purely national, such as subsidies in green energy production, can have deep implications for the global market and (by extension) which technologies and companies are financially viable on a global scale.
Does a country compare itself in the United States in influence?
This may surprise you, given all the speeches of a growing China. But in fact, the Best research and evidence available suggests that China remains a bit behind the United States in global power – closer than any other country, but still solidly in second place.
Militarily, China is a threat to American positions in East Asia, but cannot compare to America elsewhere. On the economic level, the Chinese economy is stuck in an in -depth rut that its leaders do not seem to repair; President Xi Jinping recently announced a new economic program to try to revitalize it. Compensated, the Chinese population decreases rapidly while America continues to grow Thanks to immigration (Gulp). Politically, authoritarian Chinese style capitalism has only a tiny fraction of international legitimacy made by liberal American style democracy. Diplomatically, Washington commands a much larger and powerful alliance network than Beijing.
What we have seen in recent years is relative Decline – China becomes stronger as the United States weaken. But absolute still count. And in absolute terms, the United States remains well above China on almost all the significant metrics of world power. What is happening in Washington is simply more important than what is happening in Beijing, and will probably remain for a while – perhaps even indefinitely.
For better or for worse, America is always n ° 1 – and, as such, its policies have excessive meaning for everyone.