Canada is preparing for the American president Donald TrumpThe radical rates that should land later on Monday and that economists have warned will be the “most important commercial shock” since the 1930s.
Prices should hit the Canadian economy hard, with an economic warning that Canada could decrease in a period of recession.
Although the prices have been delayed once before, there is still no sign at this stage that will happen again.
On Sunday, Trump’s trade secretary said the price In Canada and Mexico, arriving again Tuesday, although their amount can be open to change.
Here is how the hours and days to come could take place.
The number – 25% or less?
February 1, Trump announced He struck Canada and Mexico with general prices and imposing an additional price on goods from China.
“I have implemented a 25% rate on imports from Mexico and Canada (10% on Canadian energy) and an additional 10% price on China,” Trump said in a statement.
While industrial groups clashed for the figure of 25%, some members of the Trump administration said that the actual number to strike Canada could be lower.
Trump’s trade secretary said the price In Canada and Mexico, it still happens Tuesday, although it seemed to suggest that there could be changes to the original plan of 25%.
Howard Libenick said in an interview on Fox News by Sunday Morning Futures That there would be rates on Canada and Mexico from the announced date of March 4, although Trump determines at what levels.
“There will be prices on Tuesday in Mexico and Canada,” he said. “Exactly what they are, we will leave this to make the president and his team negotiate.”
The original decree, signed on February 1, indicates that the prices come into force at 12:01 p.m. on Tuesday, February 4.
However, Canadian industry sigh of relief when Donald Trump agreed to suspend prices in Canada after a telephone call with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum.
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Although it is not clear what would be the revised moment of the prices, the United States has decided for a break of a month. This would imply that the prices come into force at 12 h 01 Eastern on Tuesday March. 4
However, the Trump administration did not communicate this in writing.
Can Canada avoid prices?
The Trump administration said this set of prices concerned fentanyl and migrants crossing Canada and Mexico in the United States.
According to Canadian federal data, less than one percent of fentanyl entering the United States from Canada.
Data from the American customs and border protection agency show that in January, fentanyl seizures on the Canada-American border have dropped to the lowest levels since 2023, with less than 14 grams seized during the month. About 19 kilograms of Canada fentanyl were apprehended during the last financial year.
Economists warn that radical prices of 25% would be the “Most important commercial choke” For Canada since the 1930s, the job losses expected in several sectors.
“There are many sectors that have a lot of jobs related directly and indirectly to trade with the United States,” said Erik Johnson, economist at BMO Capital Markets.
A recent report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce said that around 2.3 million Canadians tried to use American exports directly, while 1.4 million Americans occupy Canadian exports.
All of these jobs are said to be in danger of Trump prices, said the room.
According to the commercial trotter of Canada-US in the Chamber, nearly $ 229 million in goods have already crossed the border since the beginning of 2025, on February 25.
Canada’s automotive industry has also warned that the impact of Trump’s prices would be immediate.
Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association, said that the North American automotive industry could close “in the week” if Trump prices continue on March 4.
According to UniformThe Canada automotive industry directly employed 125,000 workers in 2022, including 37,000 in assembly, 17,000 in truck and trailers’ production and more than 71,000 in the manufacture of parts.
“Everyone agreed that we would close, so it would be immediate,” said Volpe.
When did Canada retaliate?
Trudeau said Canada would impose reprisal rates against a billion dollars in American goods if the American prices struck.
Trudeau said that this will include immediate prices over 30 billion dollars of goods on Tuesday, followed by new prices on $ 125 billion in American products in 21 days to “allow Canadian companies and supply chains to seek to find alternatives”.
Ottawa said they planned to respond with reprisal prices if Trump chooses to advance the prices. Experts said it could lead to a period of inflation in Canada.
“The impact could be immediate depending on the sector,” Global News Died Dienesch told Allianz Trade in Canada, a company specializing in the commercial insurance of the offer last month.
He added: “We fear that any price of oil and gas leads to a potential increase in petrol prices in the United States of $ 0.75 per gallon. Consequently, the transport costs of goods coming to Canada in the United States would be affected. Companies must carry out the increases, in particular for products with lower margin. »»
You Nguyen, an economist at RSM Canada, said that Canada’s reprisal prices may also have an impact on prices.
“The impact will vary considerably depending on several factors, including the goods included, that there are Canadian substitutes and the amount of prices transmitted to consumers. If Canada retaliates, prices for many American imports would increase, “she said.
Nguyen said that some grocery products will become more expensive much more quickly.
“The goods which do not have close Canadian substitutes and which are perishable would see the increases first. These include fruits and vegetables, which Canada imports a little during the winter months. Companies cannot get their supplies of perishable as they do with non-pepins, so the impact would be almost immediately, “she said.
A Recent RBC report Canada could avoid a full -fledged recession if the prices are in place for a few weeks.
“Prices deleted in a few weeks are likely to create a temporary stand for Canada. However, if they extend over a few months (for example 3 to 6 months), the risk of recession in Canada increases rapidly, “said the report.
Economists generally define a recession as two consecutive quarters of an economy that contracts.