Donald Trump’s notes continue to slide On most questions. Recent economist / Yougov polls in the United States, completed from May 9 to 12, shows that 51% think that the country is on the wrong track, while only 45% have a favorable impression of His work as president. On inflation and prices in stores, only 35% approves its management of this policy.
Trump seems to be marking particularly with young voters. About 62% of young people (18 to 29) have an unfavorable opinion on the president, compared to 53% of the over 65s.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration continues to program To close or chain, a large part of the media that he does not consider on his side.
The financing of the National Radio of the Radio of the Public Service and the PBS television, as well as for the service of World News, the voice of America, is threatened. Some national media are under investigation by the Federal Commission Commission (FCC) for their coverage.
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In a speech in March, Trump said the diffusers CNN and MSNBC, and certain newspapers, he did not name “writing literally 97.6% of bad about me”. He added: “He must stop. It must be illegal.”
The Trump team clearly considers the role of the media as important to establish and maintain support, and took measures to shake up the coverage of the White House – including by changing who can attend the White House press pool.
About seven out of ten members of The American public Suppose they follow the news for updates on the Trump administration. It is therefore interesting to consider the role of the media in the influence of Trump’s popularity, and ideas can be found in the American cooperative electoral study, conducted during the presidential competition last year.
This survey showed that 57% of Americans had watched television information in the previous 24 hours. Around 81% had used social media During the same period, but only 20% used it to comment on the policy.
There is a lot of attention to be given to false news On the Internet, which contributes to causing polarization in the United States. But with regard to politics news, television coverage is still very important for most Americans.
The survey interviewed the respondents on the television news channels they watched, and Fox News appeared with 47% of viewers. ABC arrived second with 37%, and CBS and CNN equaled 35%. Fox News is Trump’s favorite television station, with its right -wing populist program and regular production of news adapted to Trump.
Relationship between Trump voters and Fox News public in 2024 American presidential election:
Source: graphic of the author based on the cooperative electoral study 2024,, CC by
The cooperative electoral study had 60,000 respondents, who provides reasonable samples in each of the 50 states. The Trump vote varied a lot to the other on the other side of the states, with only 34% of the voters in Maryland support, compared to 72% in Wyoming. The electoral college officially decides the results of the presidential elections, and this is based on states – so watching the vote in this way can be quite revealing.
The link between watching Fox News and Trump’s voting share can be seen in the graph above. It varied by 21% which watched the Vermont chain 60% in Virginia-Western.
Vermont is represented at the Congress by Senator Bernie Sanders, a Self -proclaimed socialist Of a radical political tradition, and only 32% voted for Trump there. On the other hand, Virginia-Western is part of the rust belt of the depleted states affected by deindustrialisation and the decline of the coal operating industry, and 71% voted for Trump there.
We can use a regression (which examines the relationship between variables) to predict Trump’s support using key measures that stimulate the share of voting for Trump in each state. The model uses three variables to predict the results with 95%precision, which means that although it is not perfect, it gives a very precise prediction of Trump’s vote.
Unsurprisingly, partisanry – that is to say the percentage of republicans recorded in each state – is one of the key measures. In addition, the ideology – the percentage of respondents who say they are conservatives – is another.
Perhaps more surprising, the third important predictor is the audience of Fox News. The relationship between looking at the chain and voting for Trump is very strong at the state level. In addition, the more people spend time looking at the chain, the more they have voted for Trump.
Impact of key factors on Trump’s vote in the US elections in 2024:
Source: Author based on a cooperative electoral study ,, CC by
This graph calculates the relationship between watching Fox News and other factors and the strength of the support of a state in Trump in 2024. If a variable is a perfect predictor of Trump’s vote, it would mark 1.0 on the scale. If it is a perfect non-predictor, he would mark 0.
Thus, the most important predictor to be a Trump voter was the presence of preservatives in a state, followed by the percentage of registered republicans, and the third was watching Fox News. A score raised on the three meant greater support for Trump.
To illustrate this, 45% of Texans considered themselves conservatives, 33% were registered Republicans and 51% watched Fox News. By using these measures, the model predicts that 57% would vote for Trump. In fact, 56% voted for him in this state in 2024. So, although the prediction was not perfect, it was very close.
A similar predictive model can be used to provide for the voting actions of the former candidate for the Democratic presidential president Kamala Harris by the State. In his case, we need four variables to predict the results with 95% precision – the percentage of democrats, liberals and moderate recorded in a state, as well as the Fox News viewer.
Unsurprisingly in the case of Harris, the relationship between the vision and the voting of Fox News is strongly negative (correlation = -0.64). When the hearing was high, Harris’ vote was weak.
Years ago, the “Doctrine of equity” Used to force American broadcasters to fairly reflect different points of view on the controversial problems of their coverage. The candidates for the public service were entitled to an equality time.
But this rule was deleted by the FCC in 1987 and led to an era of certain broadcasters becoming much more partisan. The FCC’s decision followed a period of debate and challenges at the doctrine of equity. This led to his abolition under Ronald Reagan, the republican president who inspired 2025 project – The document which in turn seems to inspire the political program of the Trump government.
When the Trump era is over, outgoing democrats will have to repair the American institutions that this administration has damaged. If they want to do something for the polarization of American policy, they may also need to restore the doctrine of equity.
If he had not been deleted first, it is possible that Harris won the 2024 presidential election, because Fox News would not exist in his current form. Whatever happens, American media are likely to play an important role.