Welcome to the online version of Political officeAn evening newsletter that brings you the latest report and analysis of the NBC News Policy team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign campaign.
Happy Tuesday and welcome to the first big school day of the year, with a critical race of the Supreme Court of the State in the Wisconsin of the battlefield which caught national attention, and two special elections in Florida for the seats of the deep red house, one of which has made the Republicans sweat.
After Dive into this Florida race yesterdaySteve Kornacki breaks down two key areas to watch in Wisconsin. In addition, our Capitol Hill team examines how the Republicans are preparing for the price announcement of President Donald Trump.
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– Adam Wollner
Two very different parts of Wisconsin to monitor during the elections of the Supreme Court of the State
By Steve Kornacki
While the race for the Supreme Court of Wisconsin is officially non -supporter, the Democrats and the Republicans both chose parties and pour fortunes in their efforts. While the votes are counted this evening, the ability to claim the political momentum in the middle of the second term of President Donald Trump will be at stake.
What is tested, however, is not as long as the large number of voters changed their minds in the five months who followed the presidential election. Regarding Trump himself, Wisconsin is a particularly polarized state, with three consecutive presidential elections decided by less than one point. More likely, the result depends on the question of whether the pro-Trump side has engaged more in an election like this than so far.
It’s a clear advantage that Democrats have pruned In the Trump era. During the autonomous elections for offices with a lower profile, in which the participation rate is much lower than that of the races for the president or even the governor, they had more motivated voters. This was true in Wisconsin, where the candidate supported by the Democrat won the last elections of the Supreme Court in 2023 by 11 points. And this has been true nationally, where the Democrats have displayed a series of victories and outperformances in the room’s special elections in recent years.
Energy does not come from all corners of the democratic coalition. Instead, it is concentrated among a largely white set of voters with high levels of education, higher income and intense anti-Trump views.
They are found in most of the abundant in university cities and metropolitan areas, but even in places where they are few, they struck over their weight during drop-down elections.
On the other hand, Trump in his three campaigns has generated a participation rate and support for white and white voters, mainly in rural areas and small cities. Many of these voters had been on the political touch before Trump arrived, while others had voted democrat. They maintained a strong loyalty to Trump, but were not so interested in low profile competitions such as the races of the Supreme Court of the State.
Two private parts of the Wisconsin capture this dynamic clearly and will be looming on Tuesday evening.
Dane County is among the most female terrains for Democrats across the country. Hosting both the capital of the State and the University of Wisconsin -Madison, it has – by far – the highest concentration of adults educated in the college in the state. It is also the fifth richest county in the state, and with nearly 600,000 inhabitants, it is the second more populated. And in lower profile breeds like this, its levels of participation were the highest of all the counties.
Then there is what is known locally as the “area without drift”, a widely rural and small town that extends and inside the Mississippi river from the border of Iowa to the south of the suburbs of the twin city of the County of St. Croix. The name stems from a lack of glacial coverage there are tens of thousands of years, but politically, the area without drift is full of white and blue voters who emerged en masse when Trump ran for the White House in 2016. It is the cultural and political opposite of the County of Dane.
Consider now what happened during the 2023 Supreme Court elections. If we use the presidential race from last year as a reference, the participation rate in Dane County for the judicial race in 2023 was 66% higher. This is an astronomical sum given the office at stake. And the candidate aligned by Democrat won by 64 points, a much greater spread than candidates for the Democratic presidential election which generally enjoy.
On the other hand, the participation rate in the 14 counties that make up the area without drift was only 51% of the presidential level, which means that many of these voters who materialized for Trump simply did not participate. And without them, the candidate supported by Democrat in fact won the area without drift, a return to the pre-trump era.
This summarizes the challenge for the Republicans in Tuesday’s race: they found a way to reach pro-Trump voters in places like the region without drift and to convince them that it is a test of their loyalty to the president?
Find out more: What to watch Wisconsin and Florida organize the first major elections of Trump’s second termby Adam Edelman, Bridget Bowman, Ben Kamisar and Kailani Koenig
Live cover: Follow the live updates of tonight elections on our live blog
Some Republicans are looking for tariff exemptions and express their concern about Trump’s trade war
By Sahil Kapur, Melanie Zanona and Zoë Richards
Several Congress Republicans publicly express concerns about the potential of an prolonged trade war and its effects on American farmers while President Donald Trump is preparing to announce a new wave of prices.
Trump is expected to impose rights on Wednesday on imports from other countries in a decision that could strike the agricultural community particularly harshly. Several GOP legislators in Capitol Hill are looking for last -minute sculptures to blunt the impact of these prices.
Representative Glenn Thompson, R-PA., The president of the Chamber’s Agriculture Committee, told NBC News that he had asked the White House to exempt certain goods that are important for the American agricultural industry, such as fertilizers and peat foam.
“I have somewhat highlighted the things I hope” will be excluded, “he said. “I speak with anyone who will listen to me. … They were really good about the contribution.”
Thompson also said that he hoped that Congress will not need to bail out farmers with an emergency aid package, as he did During the first Trump administration. But, he said, “we will be ready to do this” again if necessary.
Senator Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said that exemptions for specific goods should be necessary.
“The only thing I can tell you right now is potash,” said Grassley when he was asked about Trump’s prices. Citing the dependence of the United States in Canada for much of its potash, Grassley said “we will have to ask” an exemption.
Representative Tom Cole, R-Okla., Chairman of the Credit Committee of the Chamber, said a gap between agricultural and non-agricultural communities.
Cole said that farmers by his state “export a lot”, so they have concerns about reprisals. People outside the agricultural community, however, are “mainly in favor” of the prices, which, according to him, encouraged him to adopt a “wait and see” approach.
What to know of the Trump presidency today
- Trump administration carried out mass layoffs In the Ministry of Health and Social Services, through the Ministry of Health and Social Services, aimed at writing around 10,000 full -time jobs of federal agencies long responsible for regulating food and drugs and the supervision of the country’s public health policies.
- At least six federal agencies are Offer workers A new opportunity to “deferred” in the Trump’s last attempt to reduce the size of the United States government.
- The US government accidentally expelled a man In El Salvador due to an “administrative error”, landing it in a notorious mega-cheaper and leaving it stuck in the legal limbo.
- Attorney General Pam Bondi Directed federal prosecutors To ask for the death penalty for Luigi Mangione, the man accused of having developed the CEO of Unitedhealthcare, Brian Thompson, in New York last year.
- Non -profit groups and democratic Legal challenges filed Against Trump’s new decree aimed at revising the federal elections.
- Democrats in 23 states and Washington, DC, continued the Trump administration During its decision to “suddenly and arbitrarily” to terminate $ 11 billion in federal funds for covid health projects and other public health projects.
- Administration finance To a multitude of research projects from Princeton University, marking the last institution of Ivy League to see its federal support reduced or revoked.
🗞️ The other best stories today
- 🤷 Haussa with the shoulders: Trump told the moderator of “meeting the press”, Kristen Welker, during the weekend, that he “does not like” about wanting to ask for a third term, which the Constitution prohibits. But the Republican legislators have minimized the president’s comments, with the leader of the majority of the Senate John Thune, Rs.d., telling journalists that Trump “disturbs you”. Learn more →
- 🥊 Proxy (vote) Fight: A bunch of republican legislators has dropped an effort by President Mike Johnson, R-La., To block a plan to allow remote voting for legislators who become new parents, a bitter dispute that has stopped the Chamber’s floor for the week. Learn more →
- 🎤 Take position (literally): Senator Cory Booker, DN.J., went to the Senate on Monday evening to protest against the recent actions of the Trump administration, saying that “our country is in crisis”. As we sent this newsletter, he was still talking. The longest speech in the Senate ever recorded is 24 hours and 18 minutes. Learn more →
It’s all of the political bureau for the moment. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner and Bridget Bowman.
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