CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. (WVIR) – An odd year usually means an election hiatus. But not in Virginia.
Virginia and New Jersey are the only states electing a new governor in 2025, meaning eyes are on the Commonwealth as the new year approaches.
Virginians will vote for a new governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general, among a few other positions.
“Partisanship being what it is, our election cycle will be driven, not entirely, but largely, by Donald Trump,” said Larry Sabato, director of the UVA Center for Politics.
Sabato says the gubernatorial race could hinge on how popular — or unpopular — President Donald Trump is with Virginians in the coming months.
In previous elections, the commonwealth has voted against the White House for governor, with the recent exception of Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s victory in 2013 under President Barack Obama.
“It was very difficult, but not impossible, for the incumbent president’s party to win the governorship of Virginia,” Sabato said.
The Republican nominee, he says, will have a hard time avoiding responsibility for his party’s mistakes in Washington, particularly now that his party holds majorities in the House and Senate.
With current Attorney General Jason Miyares up for re-election, Sabato says Lt. Gov. Winsome-Earle Sears is the front-runner for the Republican nomination. She will likely face 7th District Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who has been the clear favorite.
Although former 5th District Rep. Denver Riggleman has flirted with the prospect of running for governor or lieutenant governor as an independent, Sabato says he’s unlikely to make it very far.
“It’s not going to break the hyper partisanship that we have here today,” Sabato said.
Four Democrats and one Republican have announced their candidacy for lieutenant governor. While it’s possible to have a split office, Sabato says we’re almost certain to see a governor and lieutenant governor elected from the same party.
“People have chosen sides … and they just don’t stray from their party,” Sabato said. “They vote for their party, from the top to the bottom of the ticket.”
In the Legislature, slim Democratic majorities in the House of Delegates and the state Senate are also at stake next week in a couple of special elections. Two seats are open in Loudoun County’s blue districts and one in red districts. 10th Senate Districtwhich includes Fluvanna and most of Louisa County.
If Republicans win all three districts, Democrats will lose control of the House and Senate.
“This is a special election that will come quickly after the new year,” said Kyle Kondik of the UVA Center for Politics. “The participation rate can be quite low, it’s the kind of situation where you can’t rule out a surprise. But, again, it would be a huge upset.
As for Governor Glenn Youngkin, Sabato says he has his eyes on Washington.
“He clearly has the presidential bug,” Sabato said. “He had it throughout his entire term as governor, and even before. This is a difficult bug to eliminate.
One thing Sabato is confident of is that the gubernatorial race will be between two women, for the first time in state history.
“It’s Sears versus Spanberger,” Sabato said. “One of these two will be the next governor.”
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