IT is beneficial to remember that the man who was to take control of Germany had no role in the government. Friedrich Merz, including Christian Democrats won a comfortable and unconvincing victory In Sunday electionsWill form a government at a time of tumult on several fronts.
He faces an economy under the breath According to a decade of underinvestment and to enter its third year of recession, a immigration crisis exacerbated by a series of only terrorist attacksand the constantly increasing popularity of the extreme right alternative for Germany (AFD). Above all, he is faced with the unprecedented collapse of relations with the United States, on which the Germans have relied for security since the end of the Second World War.
Find out more: Exclusive: Alice Weidel on the rise of her AFD party on the far right, the support of Elon Musk and the German elections
Merz would consider himself a classic conservative of the old school, somewhere between Ronald Reagan and George HW Bush, a believer of traditional social values and the established political and political architecture that linked the Germans to the transatlantic alliance.
When Donald Trump Was re -elected American president in November, Merz was convinced that he could do business with him – two fist pumping men who wanted to cut bureaucracy, reduce taxes and wage war on “awakening”. However, the conflictual approach to Trump’s lieutenants at the recent Munich security conference – in which they praised AFD praise – changed this.
Merz, 69 years old – A man who has interspersed with conference life policy as president of the German Branch of Blackrock, the investment house – is not to waste time. As he became clear during his victory speech“The world does not expect us.” Germany, he added, could not spend months haggling on the finest points of a coalition agreement while the fate of Ukraine is decided by Trump and the man who, according to They captured it, Vladimir Putin Russian.
Kaja Kallas, the main diplomat of the EU, reiterated This point, expressing the hope that a new government is formed “as quickly as possible, because we must really go with decisions at European level which requires German participation”.
With Emmanuel Macron in Washington todayAnd Keir Starmer continued Thursday, Europe is trying to persuade Trump to step back from its apparent approval from the Ukrainian position of Putin. French and British leaders coordinated their positions, stressing the need for quiet diplomacy. But a few hours after winning his electoral victory, Merz seemed to adopt a more conflicting approach to the White House.
“My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really reach the independence of the United States”, Merz said Sunday, even before the counting of the final elections.
Some have wondered if this could be another example of an imputation which is seen, even by its confidants, as a weak point of the character of Merz. Yet him double On his post the next morning: “Now more than ever, we have to put Ukraine in a position of force. For a fair peace, the attacked country must be part of the peace negotiations. »»
For this speech with a substance, Merz will have to show that he is ready to borrow more to increase the defense budget of Germany. A decade after NATO members agreed to devote at least 2% of GDP for military spending, Germany only reached this target in 2024. In order to increase it to 2.5%, not to mention a New target of 3%will cost tens of billions. For this, the incoming government will have to reform its so-called “debt brake“This places strict limits on public debt.
It seems that Merz is ready to do so, with the support of Center-Gauche Social Democrats. The outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz The SPD has undergone a humiliating result, falling third in a historic hollow. They should now play a junior role in a central right administration. However, part of the Merz agenda will be difficult for it to access, in particular the elements of its ensemble of economic reform such as social cuts and tax alternatives, and its plans to reprimand hard against illegal migration.
In one regard, the row with Trump makes the task of Merz more difficult; It is a warning to the dominant current on politicians on the left and right of what can follow if they fail to form a lasting coalition. Encouraged by its best result, with 20% of the votes, and stimulated by the noisy support Elon Musk and others In the Trump administration, AFD is waiting in the wings. He is preparing a second attack front when the new government faces its next crisis.
The extreme right in Germany is convinced that its moment will come, again.