If you were to summarize the electoral year of 2024, you could say: Grim for the holders, good for the extreme right. However, Mexico bordered the two trends. His ruling party, Morena, has not only kept the presidency, but – with his partners In the Sigamos Haciendo Historia Coalition – obtained a two -thirds supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower room, while the extreme right has not even made a candidate. The fact that a part of the left which is described could have such a success by fixing the chasmic inequality of Mexico drew the attention of progressives full of hope worldwide. But Morena’s program also has not so progressive elements. It is not necessarily another could – or would like – copy – in its entirety.
Morena won a historic result for the first time in 2018, when Andrés Manuel López Obrador, an old face of the left which presented itself to the presidency twice before founding the party, won a record of 55% of the votes during the general elections. The Constitution of Mexico limits the presidents to a single mandate. But this time, Claudia Sheinbaum, a close ally of López Obrador’s, won 60% voting. His victory recalled the peak of the “pink tide” of Latin America, when leftist leaders like Hugo Chávez and Evo Morales were re -elected for a second term with more votes than their first victories.
Meanwhile, the extreme right is not even on the ballot. Eduardo Verástegui, an actor who has become a activist who produced Sound of freedomThe Surprise box office struck about an American federal agent who put a ring of children’s trafficking in Colombia, sought to bring Trumpian politics to Mexico, but failed to perceive the necessary signatures to present himself as an independent. Rather than developing a Mexican brand of far -right politics, Verástegui tried to transplant a distinctly American flavor which was heavy with God, firearms and individualism. It didn’t take root.
The success of Morena in the construction of a left movement came from the accent put by the party on socio -economic justice. López Obrador has developed a simple and powerful populist story, arguing that the country had been captured by corrupt elites, including former political parties and their national and transnational business partners. This resonates for the inhabitants of Mexico, a palpably unequal country in which around 27% of income Accumulates the richest 1%.
López Obrador promised to change this. Its charisma and long history Mexico made him a convincing vehicle for the message, which he hammered at home during travel on every corner of the country and daily press conferences known as the name of Mañaneras. In these, he praised the achievements of his government and castigated his criticisms, shaping the media agenda. Morena’s message was amplified by the state and social media, creating a sort of personality worship around López Obrador.
And he delivered. The government of López Obrador has doubled the minimum wage in real terms, while expanding social programs and cash transfers for retirees and young people, among others. He tight on the practice of the outsourcing of workers to avoid paying services and legislating that union contracts are put to democratic votes. And he concentrated infrastructure projects on the Historically Marginalized South, the construction of trains and a new oil refinery. From 2018 to 2022, the percentage of the population living in poverty increased from around 42% to 36%.
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By putting inequalities at the center of his speech, López Obrador has created a base of committed supporters who were ready to neglect the gaps in his government. Although he came to power promising to improve corruption, insecurity and impunity, he did not realize anything. His government had his Corruption scandalsAnd Mexico’s homicide rate has remained high, with around 30,000 murders per year. In some respects, the situation has worsened: extortion is now secular. Despite this, large parts of the population have been more and more confident in democracy. By 2023, 61% of Mexicans said they had faith In their national government, against 29% when he took office.
But progressives elsewhere should not be too optimistic about the prospect of copying the Morena model. While doing all of the above,, López Obrador has also made timely movements to the right. He concluded agreements with large companies and has swerved on tax reform. He kept budgetary austerity, which means that strengthened social spending was funded with cuts elsewhere. He Catching on migrants linked to the United States For the political capital in Washington, and he refused to take a stand gay wedding Or abortionPresumably to avoid limiting the call of Morena. And him kissed the army of Mexicoa popular but opaque institution with a record for human rights violationsrelying on them for deliver your program. And although López Obrador has set up several commissions to investigate the historical abuses of the army, He later abandoned them.
The criticisms came from the political spectrum, but López Obrador pushed them back – and often insinuated, they came from players in jarret to the corrupt elites of his story. At the end of his government, he had lost the support of some feminists,, environmentalists And victims of violenceTo name only a few. However, its base continued to grow. He left power with approval ratings of around 70%.
Once it has become clear that Morena was up, politicians from all bands, including questionable characters, sought to join. Morena welcomed them, diluting the principle with pragmatism. This shortcut towards electoral success came to the price of internal tensions. However, Morena maintains a membership and basic activity that no other party can match. He has 2.3 million recorded members and wants to do this 10 million. Sheinbaum ordered Party activists to go out in all parts of the country. (This is an article of faith in the party that the success of López Obrador was born to visit each of the nearly 2,500 municipalities in Mexico.) All this undoubtedly helps Morena in local realities – unlike the far right.
Party link to local contexts limit How many progressives outside of Mexico can draw from the example of Morena. Mexico is marked by its colonial history and was under a regime to a single party for most of the 20th century before moving on to democracy in the 1990s. Today, organized crime exerts an immense influence by violence and corruption,, While Mexico’s economic dependence on the United States is extreme. This lively the feeling of injustice is a political feeling mobilizing.
It would be tempting to frame the political landscape of Mexico as a story on the left successfully resist the right. But The progressives elsewhere must ask themselves how much they would like to draw from Morena. The emphasis on socioeconomic justice, narrative control and party organization have been linked to certain utmost aspects of populism and a rapid adoption of right positions. It is difficult to say if the latter was necessary for the electoral success of Morena. But there is a dissent on the Mexican left, where some, having weighed the results against their values, are no longer on board the party.