Brett McGurk is a CNN World Affairs Analyst who held senior national security positions under the presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
Cnn
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While we are approaching day 10 of the Israel-Iran crisisThe emphasis is on the question of whether diplomacy can succeed and, if not, if President Donald Trump will make the decision to Use the American military force To destroy what remains of the Iranian nuclear infrastructure – in particular the Deeply buried enrichment installation known as Ford.
The situation from Saturday, two days after Trump gave two weeks To test diplomacy, he seemed to have reached a state of balance. This includes Israel’s control over the Iranian sky and the targeting targets at will, as well as Iran being able to launch missile dams, but in smaller numbers in Israel. Militarily, this equation ultimately promotes Israel, whose position is likely to strengthen this week.
But it is a tactical equation and does not lead to a clear end of strategic part, in particular with regard to the Iranian nuclear program. So where does this crisis are heading? I see four possible scenarios:
This remains the favorite result. But after this week Talks in Geneva Between Iran and European allies, it does not tend well. These talks did not go nowhere. Iran kept its positions before the crisis. The United States was not present. And the whole backdrop – the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva, where the Iranian nuclear agreement was negotiated 10 years ago – recalled another era.
There may be more direct commitments underway with the United States and Iran (probably by Qataris and Omanis), but unless this is the diplomatic track has no real traction. This is regrettable, because it is the best way to end the crisis – and all that Iran must do is report to Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, that he is ready to accept the proposal he presented to Iran about six weeks ago.
This proposal would be balanced, which allowed Iran to give up its enrichment program but over time and within the framework of an international consortium to provide nuclear fuel for a peaceful and supervised civil-nuclear program.
Iran’s refusal to engage directly on this proposal both before the crisis and especially now can be a fatal and fateful error. If there is only one ramp available, it is this.
The United States continues to Position military assets In the Middle East and will soon have three groups of strikes in the theater. This is a massive demonstration of force, and has not been seen since 2012, in particular to another point of diplomacy in neutral with Iran on its nuclear program and with Iran threatening to close the Hormuz Strait in response to American sanctions.
Trump has clearly given the order to position and prepare for a strike. This can help strengthen diplomacy as Iran must know it at the end of the two-week deadline, the United States is ready to use force to make the Fordow inoperable, and Iran has no chance of defending itself against such an operation. The more the United States seems to prepare for such an operation, the more Iran could be ready to conclude at the end to conclude an agreement that the United States can accept.
Like Anderson Cooper and I discussed Shortly after Trump declared a period of two weeks, “diplomacy with a deadline” can be effective and the accumulation of military forces serves the double aim of strengthening the diplomatic track while preparing for a strike if diplomacy fails. At the end of this period, Iran must understand that it will not have enrichment facilities – currently, 10 very advanced centrifugal waterfalls – in Fordow.
This can be done diplomatically (preferred) or militarily.
Although Trump has ordered the positioning of a strike, it is not clear if it could ultimately.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday that Israel could have means to withdraw Fordow without the United States on Friday. This could look like “working several ways”, which I have discussed Last week on “AC360”. The operation in many ways was an Israeli commando raid last September against an installation of Iranian missiles deeply buried in Syria.
The installation was almost the same depth as Fordwow and named the operation “Several ways” was a signal for Iran that Israel has exactly that when it comes to destroying deeply buried installations.
However, I doubt the feasibility of such an operation in Iran. It is a high risk and a great distance. A nuclear enrichment site is also very different from a missile installation. But undoubtedly, the Israelis consult all the options here and they do not want to finish the military campaign with the installation of Fordwow intact. So if the Americans stay on the sidelines, expect the Israelis to try something on their own on Fordow.
Following 2 or 3 above, I think ISRAEL could declare the end of the main operations. Iran would respond, but from the point of view of the Israelis and the United States, there would be an end point once Fordow is dismantled with the other nuclear installations of Natanz and Isfahan, which are already damaged.
Unless the three options arranged above, the most likely course is that the crisis continues. This would mean that Israel continues to control the airspace of Iran. He continues to hit targets. Iran continues to collect the dams sometimes, but its stock of missiles (and the launchers will run out).
This scenario is an inexpensive end with Iran always having massive enrichment capacities, but Israel hovers on Iran to ensure that they are never used, because emerging diplomacy continues in the background.
My evaluation: I think that in this stage, we are most likely to see option 2 or option 4, even by continuing to do everything possible to push option 1 – diplomatic resolution.
So, since the end of the favorite game is diplomacy, but with talks that do not take place anywhere, how could diplomacy be invigorated during the coming week?
First, the United States should clearly indicate that the two-week deadline is real and that if Iran refuses to make a constructive commitment, a strike will be the inevitable result of the own choices of Iran. This deadline and a credible offer to Iran – which has been on the table since before the crisis – remains the best chance for a diplomatic neckline.
Second, it is a more creative possibility. Sometimes, in a crisis, you want to enlarge the set of problems, and here – it means Gaza. The Gaza conflict is underway in the background of the Iranian crisis. There is now an agreement on the table supported by Israel for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for Hamas releasing half of the living hostages (10 out of 20). Hamas rejected this agreement, but it did it before the attack on Israel in Iran and the abolition of several of its Iranian donors, such as the leaders of the body of Islamic revolutionary guards.
According to my experience with Hamas, it can be much more flexible when its allies suffered defeats, as happened with the ceasefire agreement of Gaza earlier this year after the defeat of Hezbollah Israel in Lebanon and a cease-fire contract which followed in Lebanon.
Thus, an idea could be the 60-day ceasefire in Gaza with a 6-day freezing in Iran enrichment in order to find more permanent solutions at the end of this two-month period. Israel is in such a position of force that it might be susceptible of this and the United States could help negotiate it as a means of defusing wider crises of the Middle East and in a way that does not allow Iran or Hamas to regroup.
After all, the quickest way to end the horror in Gaza is that Hamas only publishes 10 hostages, and the fastest way to end the crisis with Iran is that Iran accepts the agreement Witkoff proposed earlier this year. There can be merit by trying them together, especially since Iran and Hamas have been in their weakest state for years.
Below, Trump bought time and space with his “two -week” deadline, as well as a preference for diplomatic resolution. But now, three days in this period of two weeks, there seems to be little momentum on the diplomatic track even if the American forces continue their massive accumulation in the region.