CNN
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Donald Trump has spent weeks preparing for a shock and awe start to his second term.
But the new president will return to the Oval Office next week with a crisis linked to wildfires raging in Los Angeles threatening to distract from his big moment.
Trump’s team is determined to hit the ground running after learning lessons from its chaotic first term, especially since the Republican monopoly on power in Washington may last only two years. Rapid border reforms, huge tax cuts and new incentives for oil exploration are already on the way. And the new White House, which is also expected to unveil a series of first executive orders, has planned a signing ceremony in the Oval Office on Monday before Trump dons black tie for a trio of presidential balls.
But even if most of the flames are extinguished by Inauguration Day, the sudden prospect of finding billions of dollars in federal aid to rebuild miles of charred homes already threatens to complicate the task of passing Trump’s agenda with a small Republican majority in the House of Representatives determined to reduce federal spending. expenses.
Trump’s rush to blame Democrats and progressive environmental policies for the disaster indicates his antipathy to fighting for federal money for one of the most hopeful states in his first weeks in office.
But presidents cannot choose their crises.
So Trump is considering a visit to Los Angeles in the early days of his administration that would bring him face to face with two leaders he is already accused of starting the fire, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Angeles Karen Bass, sources told CNN on Monday.
Such a trip would allow Trump to try to establish a “restorative” persona to end what he claims is calamitous governance by progressives.
And the devastating spectacle of the damage could make the new president aware of the enormity of the situation facing tens of thousands of people who no longer have anywhere to live.
Trump told Newsmax on Monday that the destruction in Los Angeles was “much worse than what you see on TV.” But the prospect of a massive real estate project seems to appeal to the billionaire real estate mogul.
“We’re going to do things with Los Angeles. You know, I’m already putting my developer cap in place,” Trump said.
Presidential trips to disaster areas can provide comfort and unleash the power of government. An empathetic visit from the new president could create a strong impression and erase some negative perceptions of his first term among some Americans. But such photo ops also establish a marker of the commander in chief’s responsibility in a complex and expensive relief project.
“The president intends to travel to California at some point,” a Trump adviser told CNN on Monday, adding that the precise timing was “yet to be determined.” Nothing is finalized. »
The Los Angeles wildfire disaster will also serve as a personal test for Trump and his tolerance for acting as president for all Americans.
During his last stint in the White House, Trump at times suggested breaking with established practices and withholding disaster aid in order to create political leverage against Democratic jurisdictions. He seemed deeply unhappy about sending aid to U.S. citizens in Puerto Rico, for example, accusing “incompetent politicians” of using “ridiculously high amounts” to pay for other obligations.
The president-elect’s leadership was particularly exposed when there was a conflict between an emergency response and his own political interests. During the Covid-19 pandemic, his initial commitment to mitigation efforts collapsed when it became clear that the crisis and its impact on the economy could damage his 2020 re-election prospects.
Even before California’s latest wildfire crisis, Trump had warned that he would let the state burn unless Newsom agreed to his demands for changes in how it manages its water. “If he doesn’t sign these papers, we won’t give him any money to put out all his fires. And if we don’t give him the money to put out his fires, he’s going to be in trouble,” Trump said in California in September.
Trump supporters could see this as a legitimate use of presidential power to force California to change its environmental policies that the new administration sees as the key to the wildfires.
But trying to use the power of federal money to force policy changes in cities and states is a recipe for political tumult.
The president-elect could prove prescient if investigations show that local authorities failed to properly prepare for the scale of the fires. There are also likely to be lessons to be learned from building neighborhoods in high fire risk areas. But it is too early to say with certainty what caused this disaster. And Trump’s approach has been to cite conspiracy theories and misinformation in his angry social media posts, with the obvious aim of personal political gain.
Post-disaster investigations will also likely show that weeks of drought have dried out vegetation, combined with high winds, creating a tinderbox for a perfect firestorm. Such conditions are made more likely by human-caused warming of global temperatures – a phenomenon Trump denies. The president-elect, for example, republished on social networks on Monday a photo of a burning neighborhood taken by one of his subscribers which had the slogan: “It’s not climate change. It’s the Democrats.
And Trump’s claims that progressive attempts to preserve the environment and save a rare fish — the delta smelt — led to water shortages that hampered firefighters have been debunked by fact-checkers. Any decision to withhold aid to tens of thousands of people, many of whom have lost their homes, based on such lies would be controversial and could damage his appeal early in his presidency.
The president-elect’s unpredictable nature will force California officials, already under enormous political pressure, into a balancing act because they know personal conflicts with Trump could be counterproductive.
Newsom has had a rocky relationship with Trump — exacerbated by his own potential presidential ambitions and California’s status as a Democratic stronghold with the power to challenge the president-elect’s policies on everything from the environment to reproductive rights.
In a letter to Trump on Friday, Newsom recalled how they worked together to help victims of a previous wildfire. But he also warned: “We must not politicize the human tragedy or spread disinformation from the sidelines. Hundreds of thousands of Americans – displaced from their homes and worried about the future – deserve to see all of us working in their best interests to ensure rapid recovery and rebuilding.
While the fires still rage in Los Angeles, their political repercussions are now reaching Washington.
Adopting Trump’s agenda while increasing the government’s borrowing power was already certain to strain the House’s smallest majority in decades.
The idea of adding billions for California weighed on GOP leaders Monday.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has raised the possibility of using disaster aid to force change or impose sanctions on California’s Democratic leaders. He told CNN’s Manu Raju that “it seems to us that state leaders and local leaders have failed in their duties in many ways.”
“I think this aid should probably be subject to conditions. This is my personal point of view. We’ll see what the consensus is,” the Louisiana Republican said, adding that he has not yet had a chance to discuss the issue with any of his members. He also said there had been “some discussion” about tying California aid to raising the debt ceiling – a step that must be taken within months to avoid an economic crisis caused by a US default on debt. Such a move could be intended to force Democrats to vote in favor of increasing the government’s borrowing power, as many Republicans could deprive Johnson of the majority on the issue.
Still, withholding disaster aid is a tricky issue in Congress, because every lawmaker knows their district could suddenly find itself in need.
Democrats reacted angrily to Johnson’s remarks.
“It’s a mistake. If you start this, it will never end,” Florida Rep. Jared Moskowitz wrote on X. “When Democrats take back the House, they will condition aid on Florida and Texas. Disaster assistance must remain nonpartisan. I would fight the Democrats if they tried to do that. The President can find many other ways to hold people accountable,” he wrote.
New York Rep. Jerrold Nadler also provided insight into the political battle ahead, writing on X that such funds “should NEVER be packaged or used as bargaining chips – period.” He added: “Using this tragedy for political purposes and then making it harder for people to get federal aid? It’s shameful.