For more than a decade, the West faced it again in what was widely called a new cold war. But with President Trump in office, America gives the impression that it could change camps.
Even as an American and Russian negotiators sit together Tuesday for the first time since the fulfillment invasion of Moscow of Ukraine almost three years ago, Mr. Trump reported that he was willing to abandon the American allies to make a common cause with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.
Regarding Mr. Trump, Russia is not responsible for the war which devastated its neighbor. Instead, he suggests that Ukraine is to blame for the invasion of Russia. Listening to Mr. Trump talking on Tuesday with the journalists of the conflict was to hear a version of reality that would be unrecognizable on the ground in Ukraine and would certainly have never been heard other American presidents of one or the other Parties.
In Mr. Trump’s account, Ukrainian leaders were at fault for the war for not having agreed to give up a territory and, therefore, he suggested, they do not deserve a seat at the table for the peace talks he has just launched with Mr. Putin. “You should never have started,” said Trump, referring to Ukrainian leaders who, in fact, did not start it. “You could have concluded an agreement.”
Speaking in his field of Mar-A-Lago in Florida, he continued: “You have a leadership now which allowed a war to continue which should never have happened.” On the other hand, Mr. Trump did not give any reproach for Mr. Putin or for Russia, who invaded Ukraine in 2014 for the first 2022 aimed at taking over the country.
Trump is executing one of the most breathtaking pivots in American foreign policy in generations, a 180 -degree turn that will force friends and enemies to recalibrate in a fundamental way. Since the end of the Second World War, a long parade of American presidents has first seen the Soviet Union, then, after a brief and illusory interrelane, its successor to Russia as a force to be wary, at the very least . Mr. Trump gives each appearance to see him as a collaborator in future joint ventures.
He clearly indicates that the United States has finished isolating Mr. Putin for his assault not caused against a lower neighbor and the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of people. Instead, Mr. Trump, who has always had a Disputable throw for Mr. Putinwants to readmit Russia at the international club and make it one of the best American friends.
“It is a shameful reversal of 80 years of American foreign policy,” said Kori Schake, who is director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute and was the national security assistant to President George W. Bush.
“Throughout the Cold War, the United States refused to legitimize the Soviet conquest of the Baltic States, and that gave hearts to the people who fight for their freedom,” she continued. “Now we legitimize assault to create spheres of influence. Each American president of the last 80 years would oppose President Trump’s statement. »»
In Mr. Trump’s circle, the pivot is a necessary corrective for years of erroneous policy. He and his allies consider the cost of defense of Europe as too high, given other needs. Coming to a kind of accommodation with Moscow, from this point of view, would allow the United States to bring more troops home or move national security resources to China, which they consider to be “The biggest threat”, “ As Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last month.
The American reversal was certainly pronounced during last week. Only a few days after the vice-president JD Vance excorored European allies, saying that “the threat of the interior” was more worrying than Russia, Mr. Rubio met the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov , and spoke “The incredible opportunities that exist to associate with the Russians” If they could simply eliminate Ukraine war.
No Ukrainian leader was in the meeting room, held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, even fewer Europeans, although Mr. Rubio then called several foreign ministers to inform them. Instead, by all appearances, it was a meeting of two major powers dividing the areas of domination, a modern Congress in Vienna or the Yalta conference.
Mr. Trump has long seen Mr. Putin as a compatriot, strong and “Very wise” The player whose effort to intimidate Ukraine to make territorial concessions was nothing less than “genius”. Mr. Putin, in his eyes, is a person worthy of admiration and respect, unlike the leaders of traditional allies of the United States such as Germany, Canada or France, for whom he shows contempt.
Indeed, Mr. Trump spent the first month of his second mandate to stiffen the allies, not only leaving them out of emerging Ukrainian talks, but threatening prices against them, demanding that they increase their military spending and affirmed allegations on part of their territory. Its billionaire boss Elon Musk has publicly supported the extreme right alternative for the German party.
“For the moment, Europeans consider it to normalize Russia’s relations while treating its allies, Europeans, as unreliable,” said Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, an international consulting company. “Supporting AFD, which German leaders consider a neonazi party,” makes Trump look like the opponent of the greatest European economy. It is an extraordinary change.
Mr. Trump promised during the campaign he could end the Ukraine War in 24 hours, which he did not do, and in fact declared that he would bring peace to Ukraine even before Its inauguration, which he had not done either. After A phone call of almost 90 minutes with Mr. Putin Last week, Trump affected Mr. Rubio and two other advisers, Michael Waltz and Steve Witkoff, to continue negotiations.
The concessions according to which Mr. Trump and his team have floated resemble a list of wishes from the Kremlin: Russia can keep all the Ukrainian territory which it has illegally seized by force. The United States will not provide Ukraine security guarantees, even less so allow it to enter NATO. The sanctions will be lifted. The President even suggested that Russia be readjusted to the group of 7 major powers after his being expelled for its original 2014 incursion in Ukraine.
What should Mr. Putin abandon for an agreement? He should stop killing Ukrainians while he faces his victory. Mr. Trump did not highlight other concessions on which he would insist. Nor did he declare what Mr. Putin could trust to maintain an agreement given that he had violated a 1994 pact guaranteeing Ukrainian sovereignty and two cease-fire agreements negotiated in Minsk, Bélarus , in 2014 and 2015.
The obvious faith of Mr. Trump in his ability to conclude an agreement with Mr. Putin mystifies veterans of national security officials who have treated with Russia over the years.
“We should speak to them in the same way that we talked to Soviet leaders throughout the Cold War,” said Celeste A. Wallander, who dealt with the questions of Russia and Ukraine as a deputy secretary to the Defense under President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “which is that you do not trust them.
“When you make negotiations,” she continued, “you do them with the presumption they will violate them. You are trying to find overlapping interests, but recognize that our interests are fundamentally in conflicts and we try to manage a dangerous opponent, not to become the best friends. »»
Speaking with journalists on Tuesday, Trump learned as if he considered Russia as a friend – but not Ukraine. “Russia wants to do something,” he said. “They want to stop wild barbarism.”
Mr. Trump expressed his dismay on the murder and destruction formulated by what he called an “insane war”, comparing the scenes from the front to the battle of Gettysburg with “parts of the body all over the ground”. Ukraine, he said, “was destroyed” and war had to end. But he did not say who destroyed Ukraine, clearly leaving that he blamed his own leaders and reject their insistence to be part of any negotiation.
“I heard that they are upset not to have a seat,” said Trump. “Well, they have had a seat for three years. And long before that. It could have been adjusted very easily. Just a half -cooked negotiator could have settled years ago without, I think, without the loss of many land, very few land. Without loss of lives. And without the loss of cities that arise on their side. »»
He repeated his assertion that the invasion did not arrive if he had been president, ignoring the fact that the forces sponsored by Russia had waged war in Ukraine during the four years of his first mandate. “I could have concluded an agreement for Ukraine which would have given them almost all land,” he said without explaining why he did not try to negotiate peace when he was in office.
As he often does, Mr. Trump flavored his comments with several false claims. Among them, he said that the United States has contributed three times more help to Ukraine since the start of the war like Europe. In fact, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Europe allocated $ 138 billion, against $ 119 billion in the United States.
He also disparaged President Volodymyr Zelensky from Ukraine, claiming more than once that “is down 4% in terms of approval”. In fact, Mr. Zelensky approval rating fell from its formerly stratospheric heights, but only about 50% – not so different from that of Mr. Trump.
Trump also agreed with a Russian discussion subject that Ukraine should have new elections to play a role in negotiations. “Yeah, I would say that when they want a siege at the table, you could say that people have to do it – shouldn’t the people of Ukraine say, as you know, it’s been a long time since we don’t ‘ Haven’t had an election? “He said.” It is not a thing from Russia. It is something that comes from me and coming from many other countries too. “
What other countries he did not say. He said nothing about the need for elections in Russia, where any vote is controlled by the Kremlin and its allies.
Mr. Trump’s remarks were not scripted and came in response to journalists’ questions. But they reflected how he saw the situation and foreshadowed in the coming months. They also sent new shock waves across Europe, which approaches the fact that its main ally in the new Cold War is no longer seen in this way.
“Some of the most shameful comments pronounced by a president during my lifetime,” said Ian Bond, deputy director of the Center for European Reform in London, online. “Trump is the side of the attacker, blaming the victim. In the Kremlin, they must jump for joy. »»