It is a political truism that it is bad to be the president in charge when the economy becomes sour.
This can be particularly bad for President Donald Trump – because, thanks to endless controversies during his decade in politics, the belief of voters in his economic know -how was his most coherent,
Now, this light point can have disappeared.
CNN had the SSRS survey company Ask the voters if they approve the management of the economy by Trump Since the start of his first mandate. They did it again last week – and Trump obtained positive results. Forty-four percent of respondents said they approved and 56% disapproved.
This makes a net disapproval of 12%, which is easily its worst ever in this particular survey, as shown in the graph below:
The reputation of Trump (old?) On the economy is an underestimated reason for its political force
There have been infinite explanations and theories offered to the rise and perseverance of Trump in politics. Some of them are stylistic (his desire to stoer racism or to say offensive things, his tweets), others are ideological (his challenge to the previous GOP elite consensus on immigration, free trade and foreign policy).
But another key reason for his ascent and his return is the belief among the many voters that Trump is a wise businessman and therefore manages the economy.
Trump, after all, played such a character for many years in his reality TV program, The apprenticeMake quick assessments of the competitors’ commercial prowess and dismiss those who have not cut. His name had long used in hip-hop music To symbolize flashy wealth and success. He published a book entitled The art of agreement.
For voters who are not dug in a particular ideological camp, the conviction that an apparently rich and prosperous businessman would be better to manage the economy than a typical politician seemed logical. And indeed, although Hillary Clinton directed Trump in polls for most of the 2016 campaign, the electorate thought he would handle The economy better than it would.
Trump’s file in the first three years of his first mandate seemed to justify this belief, because growth has remained strong and the markets increased more and more while unemployment, inflation and interest rates have remained low. The Covide-19 pandemic threw this for a loop in 2020, but even then, the voters did not completely turn against Trump on the economy.
The presidency of Biden subsequently presented the highest inflation for decades, followed by enormous increases in interest rates of the federal reserve to try to conquer this inflation. Voters Absolutely hated thatAnd the popularity of Joe Biden sang. All of this seemed to adapt to the idea that the Democrats are terrible in economic management and that, if Trump was back to power, he would bring the good old days of 2017-2019. Consequently, Trump solidly outdated Kamala Harris on the economy.
Since the start of his second term, Trump has been acting very differently from his first. It was much more aggressive by pushing its price and its trade war program, in a very visible way. The results have also been very visible because the markets have plunged in recent weeks.
In general, the second term Trump aimed to please Maga’s base. But if Trump cares about retaining his popularity among the least hardcore swing voters who helped him win in 2016 and 2024, it is a worrying sign. Of course, he may not care about it – he does not have to face another election. Republican candidates across the country will be those in electoral danger.