Cnn
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The “big and beautiful bill” of President Donald Trump – whom he nicknamed on Thursday the “ultimate codification” of the Maga Agenda – is a paradox that shows how power works in a broken political system in which it is the greatest force.
While falling into the Senate, the bill – which extend large tax reductions,, Hikes Funding of border security And Includes historic cups in Medicaid – is perpetually on support for life while the songs continue to be reduced to adapt Chamber’s budgetary rules.
The growing number of republican legislators have forced to adopt the measure hates him.
The public does not want it – According to a Quinnipiac University Survey Released earlier this month, voters oppose the measure of 53% to 27%. The survey is not an aberrant value.
Who can really say what remains in the bill after days of struggle in the Senate? He is hardly recognizable by the one that the house has passed. This is a problem for President Mike Johnson, who is under high pressure To obtain everything the Senate produced through the room before the deadline of Trump’s July fourth.
While the Republicans rush to adopt the bill, those of the swing seats can vote that they cannot avoid, but that could cost them their jobs. It is possible that the measure can become one of these presidential vanity projects that lose the majority of the chamber, if the Democrats return the room in the mid-term elections next year.
But despite its many liabilities, you can bring it back to the bank: something will pass, even if certain priorities of the White House are written. And Trump will declare everything that will land on his office one of the most important laws in the history of the United States.
The measurement of the Maga Agenda has become imperative for the prestige of Trump. It’s too big and beautiful to fail. Trump is even more sensitive to such success markers than most presidents. And recent history suggests that its restraint on the basis of the GOP could lead to the end of most of the selected.
The president already has a vast political change with tight arms, using Expansive executive power In a Blitz which sparked several judicial disputes. But legislation is the means to make reforms stick. And its description of the bill as “codification” of the Maga project is almost correct.
The measure is essential to stimulate financing and labor for the mass of the president deportation plans. It also removes advantages for certain categories of migrants.
It includes one of Trump’s favorite campaign promises: tax exemption for overtime and advice. In another nod to the president’s populist origins, the White House argued that the bill supports rue Main above Wall Street, praising support for family farms, the affordability of housing and the new investment accounts of Trump for newborns. The administration says That the typical family of two children would have a wage increase between $ 7,600 and $ 10,900 and states that the bill would save or create around 7 million jobs.
But as is the case with most budgetary bills, all of this is based on creative mathematics, pink growth hypotheses and low inflation. And as Trump’s tax bill during his first mandate, this measure is a feint that reveals the limits of his populism because it rewards higher employees. And the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the version of the bill of the bill Stimulate the deficit of 2.4 billions of dollars.
Michigan Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin told Jake Tapper de CNN on Thursday that Trump was trying to hide a transfer of wealth to the rich with populist fulfillments. “He is thrown into a few small songs here and there that will be, I think, really important but, guy, he will prefer the very rich in this bill, and he tries to hide it by becoming the hero of the middle class. We must call him on it.”
Politically, the White House is considering a potential purple patch for the president. If he can add the measure to What he claims is the obliteration of the Iranian nuclear program and a Engage by NATO members To increase their defense expenses to 5% of GDP, this would create an undeniably complete inheritance for the president.
Trump organized a White House event on Thursday which was intended to put pressure on the criticism of the GOP of the legislation, but ended up looking more like a victory tour, punctuated by the characteristic digressions of Trump on his obsessions: former president Joe Biden, “twisted elections” and the participation of transgender women in sport.
Sometimes it was almost as if Trump thought that the bill had already been adopted: he praised “one of the most important laws in the history of our country and it is everyone who says that, almost everyone”. And he added: “The” Big, Beautiful Bill “to guarantee our borders, turbor our economy and bring back the American dream – he encountered enormous approval and reception.”
Celebration and anger at each end of Pennsylvania avenue
The atmosphere of celebration at the White House contrasts with growing acrimony on Capitol Hill while the Republicans ran up against Republicans. Democrats are helpless passers -by in the fight. But they are look and wait To explode the GOP for the limitation of Medicaid and make the wealthiest rich in the mid-term elections next year.
Trump’s request for a “big and beautiful bill” of the signature of the anniversary of America is now in danger. The calendar, which was already ambitious, took a blow with the last decision of the senior rules of the Senate that a tranche of several billion dollars of the measure was not authorized under reconciliation – The complex process used to adopt a bill with a simple majority, in this case with only the GOP support.
More bad news for the head of the majority of the GOP, John Thune: Thursday’s decision concerned one of the most politically explosive aspects of the bill – a change in taxes that states can impose to pay the coverage of Medicaid. This applies to the backdrop of bills Medicaid expenditure cuts hundreds of billions over a decade.
Several eminent GOP senators, including Josh Hawley of Missouri and Susan Collins of Maine, who face a difficult offer of re -election next year, warned that they would not vote for the bill if it contains these tax maneuvers. They say the measure could be devastating for rural hospitalsEspecially in many red states.
The latter obstacle left Thune Racing for a solution. But each change in the bill could potentially make it an even more bitter pill for house legislators, in particular conservative budgetary hawks, who say they are ready to challenge Trump.
“Everything is difficult, but they are all slowders,” Thune told journalists on Thursday. “We have emergency plans, Plan B and Plan C. We will continue to plead it,” he said.
In normal circumstances, it would not be too much a problem. It is a golden rule on the hill that the bills often seem to separate from the seams until they reach their final votes.
But Trump’s desire for a fourth celebration makes things much more difficult. Thune should withdraw the Senate bill by the weekend. Then Johnson should rally his tiny majority made to blur it, using the carrot to bring the legislators back home to children in time for fireworks.
The speaker could try to appease anger among its members on the changes of the Senate to the bill by entering a conference with the other chamber to negotiate. But it could take days or weeks, which means that Trump’s plans for a signature of invoice by the American 249th anniversary would be spoiled.
But some Republicans, who often speak of a good game on the president’s opposition but end up losing in the heat of Maga, say that the classic strategy of putting pressure on members with a bill that the president asks will not work this time.
Representative Eric Burlison of Missouri told Manu Raju de CNN that he was not responsible for leadership to agree on an agreement on closed doors, then to put him in voting. “This is what Washington is good, it is sort of the shock of the last minute people, giving you something that you did not have time to read, I did not have time to obtain a reflection or a contribution of your district,” he said, adding: “It is not ideal.”
“ We don’t need a sink.
The Republican Party of the Trump era has made a mark to break the rules of Washington – which is why it is so popular with the basic conservatives, whose president has exploited to his advantage.
Alabama senator Tommy Tuberville struck the current parliamentarian Elizabeth Macdonough for a series of decisions that have made the “big and beautiful bill” a bit Smaller this week, in an x post resonating with Maga applause lines
“The parliamentarian of the Senate Woke, who was appointed by Harry Reid and advised Al Gore, has just comforted a provision prohibiting illegals from flying Medicaid to American citizens. This is a perfect example of the reason why the Americans hate the marsh,” wrote Tuberville.
The president, on the other hand, has little patience for everything that slows down the bill – an amalgam of Maga priorities has made a massive potential law pass because of fear that the majority of the republican chamber is so fragile that it will only bear a limited number of critical votes.
“We don’t want to have unforeseen events,” he said on Thursday. “They do it in the gallery, that’s not all. No good people. They know who I’m talking about. I call them, but we don’t need stands. ”