Welcome to the online version of From the political officean evening newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, we place Donald Trump’s repeatedly expressed desire to annex Canada into historical context. Plus, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki details which counties have seen the most dramatic political changes during the Trump era.
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Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal: Trump continues to talk about American expansion
During a freewheeling news conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort on Tuesday, President-elect Donald Trump suggested he would consider using military force to take control of the Panama Canal and Greenland and the “economic strength” to acquire Canada. Report by Katherine Doyle and Vaughn Hillyard.
A reporter asked Trump if he could assure the public that he would not use military coercion against Panama or Greenland, as he has done in recent weeks. “No, I can’t guarantee either of those two things, but I can say this: We need it for our economic security,” Trump said. He later declared that he would not use military force against Canada, but only “economic force.”
“That would really be something,” Trump said of the U.S. takeover of Canada.
“You get rid of that artificially drawn line and look at what it looks like. And it would also be much better for national security,” he added.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said later on: “There is no chance that Canada will be part of the United States.”
Historical context: As Scott Bland writesTrump’s sentiment – and his slight confidence in the ease and popularity of Canada joining the United States – are far from new.
During the War of 1812, President Thomas Jefferson said Philadelphia newspaper editor Thomas Duane that “the acquisition of Canada this year, up to the environs of Quebec, will only be a simple question of marching.” (Spoiler alert: It wasn’t.) Among other things, the Notes from the National Park Service in an article about this comment, many in the United States “wrongly assumed that the Canadian population would welcome the arrival of American forces.”
Later, in the 1800s, some degree of pro-annexation sentiment developed within each of the major American political parties, according to historian John W. Quistunited by a common thread that the annexation of Canada would “take place peacefully and be welcomed by Canadians.”
Public opinion polls in Canada illustrate a distinct political culture, very different from that of the United States.
A September poll by the Environics Institute showed Canadians preferred Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump. by a ratio of 3 to 1 before the election, even though Trump is doing better than Joe Biden by the same extent four years ago, particularly among younger Canadians. (The poll showed that a plurality of Canadian conservatives preferred him this time, which was not the case in 2020.)
Canadians have generally held favorable views of the United States over the past quarter century, according to Pew Research Center surveys — but they have never been lower than when Trump was president, falling to 35% favorable in 2020 before rebounding after Biden’s election. The Environics Institute survey shows a similar trend.
Meanwhile, in Greenland: The King of Denmark changed the royal coat of arms for the first time in over 500 years to better highlight Greenland, Notes by Astha Rajvanshi. And Donald Trump Jr. arrived in Greenland on Tuesday accompanied by at least two new White House officials.
The regions of the country that have seen the biggest political changes in the Trump era
By Steve Kornacki
The Trump era has produced dramatic changes in the Republican and Democratic coalitions. One way to visualize the magnitude of these changes is to zoom in on the American political map.
Using the 2024 and 2012 elections — the last ones not to feature Donald Trump as the GOP presidential nominee — as bookends, we can measure partisan movement in all 3,143 counties across the country throughout the Trump era .
Nationally, the country moved 5.5 points in favor of the Republican Party over those 12 years – from Barack Obama’s popular vote margin of 3.8 points in 2012 to Trump’s victory by 1.5 points in 2024. But it is at the county level that some figures are incorrect. the graphics.
Here are the 25 counties that have moved closest to the Republican Party during the Trump era.
The political transformation is astounding in these places. Starr County, for example, which sits on the Mexican border in South Texas, had the longest unbroken streak of Democratic votes in presidential elections of any county in the United States – until Trump l ‘interrupted last year. Or Elliott County, Kentucky, which is in the eastern coal region of the state: Trump won it by 62, 51 and 44 points during his three campaigns. But before that, Elliott had gone Democratic in every election since its inception in 1869.
Both Starr and Elliott embody one of two demographic characteristics common to all 25 Republican-leaning counties.
In Starr, 96% of residents are Hispanic – the second highest concentration in the United States. Nine other counties on the list also have majority Hispanic populations, with concentrations ranging from 51% to 95%.
Elliott, meanwhile, is 96% white. But the vast majority of the white population (89%) does not have a four-year college degree. And the county also has a much lower median household income than the state of Kentucky. This basic profile also matches 14 other counties on the list – heavily white and blue collar.
On the other end of the spectrum are the 25 areas that have shifted most decidedly toward Democrats during the Trump era.
In these Democratic-leaning areas, other demographic characteristics loom large. Seven of the counties are in Utah and have significant Mormon populations. Similarly, two-thirds of the population of Madison County, Idaho is Mormon. As a group, Mormons are politically conservative and have made Utah one of the most reliably red states in the country. But among Republican-aligned groups, they are particularly cold toward Trump, who has endured his term in office. worst statewide result in 2016 primaries in Utah and again faced significant resistance during last year’s primaries.
Democrats also made gains during the Trump era in two Georgia counties — Henry and Rockdale — that are experiencing rapid population growth, fueled by an influx of middle-class African Americans.
The remaining 16 counties on the list stand out for two reasons. One of them is their wealth. Eleven of them have median household incomes in the six figures. Teton County, Wyoming (where the Jackson Hole Complex is located), Boone County, Indiana, Forsyth County, Georgia, Los Alamos County, New Mexico, and Johnson County, Kansas all rank first in their states for median household income. Falls Church, Virginia (which is not technically a county but functions as a county within the state), ranks second statewide. Broomfield County, Colorado, and Collin County, Texas, ranked third in their states.
These 16 localities also have a significant population of white residents with four-year college degrees. In each, the concentration of white adult residents with at least a bachelor’s degree exceeds the national average. In Falls Church, for example, 82 percent of white adults have some college education – the third highest total out of 3,143 counties (or county equivalents) nationwide.
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- ⚖️ In the courts: The federal judge who oversaw the classified documents case against Trump issued an order temporarily blocking the release of special counsel Jack Smith’s report on his investigation. Meanwhile, two agencies involved in the case facial turnover in key roles. Read more →
- ⚖️ Before the courts, continued: A New York appeals court judge denied Trump’s request for an emergency order suspending his scheduled sentencing Friday on criminal charges in the financial silence case. Read more →
- 📱In the metaverse: Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced that the parent company of Facebook and Instagram would end its fact-checking program with trusted partners and replace it with a community system similar to X’s Community Ratings. Read more →
- 📱In the Metaverse, continued: Dana White, UFC CEO and longtime Trump friend, joins Meta’s board of directors. Read more →
- ⛔️ Reduce the circle: The number of people with direct access to Trump will be more limited when he takes office, in order to tighten lines of communication with him. Read more →
- 📝First order of business: The House passed a tough border measure, named after a 22-year-old Georgia nursing school student whose killing last year by an immigrant in the country illegally became a hotspot of the presidential campaign. Forty-eight Democrats joined all Republicans in voting for the new Congress’s first bill. Read more →
- 🗳️ Endless election: The Republican-controlled North Carolina Supreme Court blocked state officials from certifying the Democratic nominee as the winner in a closely fought race for the state’s high court. Read more →
That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. Today’s newsletter was written by Adam Wollner, Scott Bland and Bridget Bowman.
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