French deputies debate Wednesday at the National Assembly in Paris. A majority of lawmakers voted to oust Prime Minister Michel Barnier, forcing him to resign.
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LONDON — French President Emmanuel Macron has pledged to extend his current term until 2027 and appoint a new government in the coming days, amid a growing political crisis that threatens to engulf his leadership.
Speaking on Thursday at his official residence at the Elysée in Paris, Macron thanked outgoing Prime Minister Michel Barnier for his “dedication”, after a majority of deputies in the National Assembly voted to impeach Barnier Wednesday, forcing him to resign. Macron accused opposition parties of choosing “chaos,” saying they “don’t want to build, they want to dismantle.”
Political instability in France — and simultaneously in Germany, where the the government coalition collapsed a month ago — could have broad implications for European security as well as transatlantic relations, analysts told NPR, just weeks before President-elect Donald Trump enters the White House. With a war still raging on Europe’s doorstep, interim governments will now control two of the continent’s most powerful economies.
President Macron appointed Barnier as head of government only three months ago, after snap elections this summer left no party with a majority in a deeply divided parliament.
On Wednesday, lawmakers from opposing extreme parties gathered for a vote of no confidence against Barnier over his proposed 2025 national budget. Today, with the government overthrown and the absence of an approved budget, Macron knows that he must act quickly, according to Mathieu Gallard, pollster at Ipsos.
“Regarding the adoption of the budget, everything is at a standstill, nothing can move in Parliament before having a new government,” believes Gallard. “It’s definitely uncharted territory, since we’ve never been in this kind of situation.”
The main challenge comes from the fact that none of the political groups in the French Parliament have a clear majority and none of them are willing to negotiate or compromise with each other, says Gallard, while the electoral system means that There is very little incentive for this to change, even if Macron calls new national elections in 10 months, or as soon as the constitution allows after the last elections.
A protester against French President Emmanuel Macron holds a sign reading “Macron, you stink, get out,” during a rally in Marseille, France, on Thursday, as part of a day of action and strike in the sector audience.
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“Before the election of Emmanuel Macron, we had two opposing blocs in French politics, the left and the right, and it was quite simple.” explains Gallard, who teaches public opinion at Sciences Po, the highest political science university in Paris. “Now we have three blocs, a left-wing bloc, a center-right bloc and a radical-right bloc, and that makes the situation much more complicated.”
Meanwhile, in neighboring Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has lost the support of his previous political coalition partners, particularly on economic and fiscal policy. Now he’s limping toward a confidence vote later this month and federal elections in February.
All of this is something that European leaders will soon have to take seriously, says Tanja Börzel, professor of political science at the Freie Universität, or Free University, in Berlin. Even if she does not believe that the European Union “is facing an existential threat, she nevertheless considers it to constitute a major challenge”.
And the timing of these two political crises is particularly unfortunate, given that polarization and societal distrust of government are growing on both sides of the Atlantic, Börzel says. “These two countries have always, very often, taken the initiative to help Europe speak with one voice. I think this is what is more necessary than ever with the arrival of Trump as president of the United States.”
As Trump’s second term in the White House dawns, the main concern of many EU members – even before this latest instability – was centered on the continent’s security.
“For the EU today, the No. 1 emergency is the war in Ukraine,” said Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, acting president of the US German Marshall Fund, speaking in a video call during a visit to Washington, D.C. “While we know, (there is) a certain amount of anxiety about how the Trump administration is going to handle the war in Ukraine with a potential deal that could circumvent the Europeans.”
There is an ongoing debate in many European countries, known colloquially as the “guns versus butter” battle. He contrasted the need to increase defense spending – driven not only by the conflict in Ukraine but also by Trump’s frustrated attitude towards member states’ obligations to NATO – and national needs in the context of an ongoing cost of living crisis.
And it is the budgetary struggles in France and Germany that recently contributed to the overthrow of their respective leaders.
“At the end of the day, the EU is not united on Ukraine, and it is always European fragmentations that fuel European weaknesses,” says de Hoop Scheffer, who previously worked for NATO and at French Ministry of Defense. “The crisis of Franco-German leadership really doesn’t help,” she says.
And with Europe’s two largest economies already struggling, the new year could herald a new era for both the European Union and the United States.