Cnn
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While the White House warns a trade war in the name of American manufacturing, the most important and most important part of the American economy – the one with a trade surplus, not a gap – is threatened.
The American gap, caused by consumers and American companies important more goods than they exported, drew all the attention of the debate to the prices
But we sell many more services than we buy in other countries. This means that the service sector in the United States enjoys a trade surplus with almost all business partners around the world, including those in the Center for the Commercial Battle: China, the Member States of the European Union, Canada and Mexico.
America’s commercial surplus in services reached $ 293 billion in 2024, up 5% compared to 2023 and up 25% compared to 2022, according to data from the Commerce Department.
Companies in the service sector “are all industries that feed American economic growth. They are the secret sauce of the American economy, “said Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “We sell a lot of services in the rest of the world and these countries know it and they will use it against us only if the push comes to push. They can set up commercial barriers and apply new standards before coming to the country. ”
And that is why even if the prices have brought back certain manufacturing jobs, probably in years, these American factory jobs may not compensate for the loss of jobs in the service sector.
The service sector includes almost everything that does not come out of a factory, a farm, a mine or an oil well. It includes retailers, restaurants and hotels, as well as software, internet and telecommunications suppliers. There are truckers and airlines, movie studios and media companies. They are also schools and healthcare providers, lawyers and accountants.
Jobs in the service sector have long motivated the American economy, despite the image of a mid -20th century America as a country supported by manufacturers.
The service sector employed 57% of non -agricultural workers in the private sector in 1939, in the midst of the Great Depression, when the Labor Department began to follow US employment. Today, companies in the service sector represent 84% of these jobs.
Manufacturers represented up to 44% of private sector jobs during the Second World War, but this has been falling regularly since. Last year, less than 10% of private sector employees worked in manufacturing, according to data from the Labor Department. This is mainly due to automation and growth in the service sector. Trade is a distant third for the causes of its reduced importance.
It is normal that manufacturing jobs are shrinking as a percentage of jobs because a country becomes richer and more technologically advanced, according to Cardiff Garcia, editorial director of The Economic Innovation Group, an organization of Bipartite public policy.
“It’s just that an economy is evolving,” Garcia told CNN on Thursday. “If you want to use a large part of American workers in manufacturing, you must almost bring the economy back to the past.”
Even within the automotive industry, the center of a large part of the price dispute, jobs in the service sector exceed manufacturing jobs. About 1.3 million workers are employed by American automobile dealers, and only 1 million work in American automotive factories and parts manufacturers. And the number of dealer jobs can fall If the prices reduce the supply of cars and the price of cars increases, as should happen.
This is particularly true for car manufacturers who are now faced at prices on all cars intended for their American dealers, as Audi belonging to Volkswagen, which has no American factories.
“When the president says:” I don’t care that foreign cars are sold in the United States “, the challenge is that we have people in the United States employed by foreign car dealerships, you say in a way that their jobs are less worthy,” Jason Miller, Commerce teacher at Michigan State University.
If other countries retaliated in response to American prices, this could also aim for services to Americans abroad.
For example, China, the second largest market in the film’s box office, is considering restrictions on the American films exported to it.
In addition, the European Union could impose limits on American banks to function freely. It also weighs massive fines for American technological companies.
“Put too far, and (the EU) could tighten the screws – digital samples from Silicon Valley, regulatory pliers at Wall Street or US pharmaceutical exports,” said Tobias Gehrke, member of the senior policy of the European Council on foreign relations.
And the trade war, and the other Trump administration actions on immigration, could also reduce the number of university and university students who come here with student visas.
There are approximately 1.1 million international students, representing around 7% of students on all campuses, according to the Institute of International Education. Tuition fees, the room and the board of directors they pay is not only crucial for many schools, but it also reduces the country’s trade deficit. But the Trump administration revoked Hundreds of student visasAnd even some students who do not risk losing their visas are reluctant to frequent American schools in the current environment.
International tourist visits should also decrease, which potentially costs billions for hotels, restaurants and attractions such as themed parks.
Tourism Economics, a company following the hotel industry, plans to drop 9.4% of international visitors to the United States for 2025, led by a 20.2% drop in Canada visits. The company also estimates that international spending on visitors to the United States should decrease by 5%, which would mean a loss of $ 9 billion this year.
This is a striking contrast compared to the end of last year, when the tourism economy estimated an increase of almost 9% of international visitors, with a 16% increase in foreign travelers.
“Trump’s policies and statements have produced a change in negative feeling to the United States among international travelers,” a press release from Tourism Economics said.
Wednesday, Delta Air Lines said that she was expecting less trips by the Americans to the second half of this year; The airline will reduce the seat additions which it had planned for 2025 and will cut its payroll through attrition. CEO Ed Bastian said he was now seeing such a probable recession.
And there will also be fewer jobs or thinner pay checks by moving goods. American Trucking employs 1.5 million and warehouses and storage 1.8 million, according to the Labor Department.
About 40% of the cargo moving through the port of Los Angeles, the largest in the country, comes from or goes to China, said Gene Seroka, executive director of the port. It projects a 10% drop in cargo to the second half of this year due to prices.
“We are not going to see mass layoffs. But the amount of work will be much less than it has been traditionally,” he said.
The greatest danger for service jobs, however, comes from the possibility of a pricing recession, the Americans short of money spend less and the companies that fail or retreat.
“Because we are a service saving, services gain weight,” said Zandi. “Health care, education, financial services. Each industry is nailed to a recession. ”