SAm to the assessment of Altman of The new Ai Chinese chatbot Long said – “impressive, especially around what they are able to deliver for the price”. The director general of the Openai remembers adding that his company would soon launch “better models”, but his praise for the R1 version of Deepseek would seem to clarify a question for Luddite AI: the Chinese product is so good that good Experts say? Answer: If Altman The said, yes, this is probably the case.
Other mysteries remain, of course. Has Deepseek really developed the thing on the comic budget budget of $ 6 million? Or does the model work on Nvidia Chips, just using less of them and the old variety? If so, could it be good news for Nvidia in the long term that the game has new entrants? But does a piece of expenditure by others for the calculation power for the AI’s arms race already represents waxed money?
Do not expect rapid responses to any of the above elements. For the moment, we cannot probably say that, in terms of grant, the main meaning of the In depth Development is that investors have not seen it coming. But it is the nature of technological revolutions – they tend not to work in an easy way to predict. Everyone can feel that something is going on that will change the world, but knowing where to place your investment bets is another matter.
Many establish parallels with the Dotcom bubble of the late 1990s for understandable reasons. The level of market concentration in a handful of stocks is even more extreme than it was then; Nvidia alone, even after The loss of value of almost $ 600 billion on MondayA little more is a little more than all the companies in the FTSE 100 index in the United Kingdom. And the whole show is imbued with the same belief in front of the first furniture – in other words, that the first managers will collect all the financial prices.
But, as shown a quarter of a century ago, real life does not work so simply. Terry Smith fund manager last year assembled an surprisingly long list of technological pace-players who found themselves as rans too: Intel in chips; AOL in the Internet Service Provision; Nokia in mobile phones; Yahoo in search engines; Myspace in social media; And Research in Motion, The Blackberry People, in smartphones. It would be “a break with tradition,” he argued, if the market had discovered an ability to identify the winners at the start.
There is also the possibility, as Smith has suggested that “the adoption of AI can lead to a situation where everyone has it, so no one has more”. The new Deepseek would seem to nod this idea. If “impressive” and cheap Chinese versions are available on an open source basis, the party entry cost could dive. The competition would flourish, in particular among companies developing applications for AI, undergoing the prospect of super normal yields.
A right capitalist would have shot the brothers Wright when they went to Kitty Hawk’s sky in 1903. Warren Buffett pointed out about the long habit of getting us and losing money for their investors. It would be absurd to predict that AI will turn into a similar history of too much capital chasing too little yields of a new technology transforming society. To start, nvidia made before taxation of $ 58.8 billion During the first nine months of its current exercise, which is more impressive than anything that is obtained by the list of possible losers in Smith.
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But the broader economy of the AI revolution remains guessed and, after the arrow, they are slightly more clouds than they were last week. This is normal for the course.