Cnn
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The presidential inheritances are built on legislation, and not decrees – a lesson in the first mandate of Donald Trump which now presents an urgent test for his second.
For years, Trump relied on pure force to put pressure on the Republicans to do what he wanted. For the most part, it worked: the party has fallen for a long time, with skeptics in the desert. However, even with a guy now aligned almost entirely behind him, Trump still notes that there are limits to the power of his bitch of intimidation, even with the fate of almost all his domestic program in the balance.
The president went to Capitol Hill Tuesday morning in the hope of convincing the Republicans of the assets to line up behind his “great beautiful” budget bill, but many skeptics are not convinced after a one -hour meeting that Trump described as a “pep gathering”.
In fact, the rifts between the moderate and ultra -conservative party factions of the party seem only to deepen, without a clear path towards success for a bill which could manage to define the inheritance of Trump.
“I do not think that he convinced enough people for the bill to be adequate the way,” said Maryland representative Andy Harris, president of the House Freedom Caucus. Harris’ ultra -conservative group has put pressure on deeper expense reductions, in particular for Medicaid, such as a means of countering expansion by the bill for the federal deficit.
The managers of the White House believe that the adoption of the bill is vital if Trump must keep its promises of the border security tightening campaign, extend its tax reductions at the first mandate and eliminate taxes on advice, overtime and social security. Advisers and legislators think they have a narrow window to succeed before the mid-term elections next year.
With the economy locked in a state of uncertainty due to Trump’s trade war, the package represents what the managers of the White House believe that it is their best chance of lighting growth and improving the opinions of Americans on the country’s financial state. Moody’s recent decision to demote the American credit rating Only increases the urgency of legislation.
Trump’s message before Tuesday camera session was not particularly subtle. The Republicans who oppose his bill “would not be a much longer republican,” he said when he arrived at the Capitol. “They would be knocked out so quickly.” He even called the representative Thomas Massie, who promised to oppose the bill, several times before and during the Republican meeting.
But even the threat of a main challenge was not enough to influence resistance.
“It’s mathematics, that’s what it is,” said Massie. “If this vote was based on the president or sympathy of the president, I could vote yes. But that is not the case. Not for me. There are real consequences.”
Four months after his term, Trump signed Hundreds of executive actions And has repeatedly tested the limits of its presidential authority. But he signed a handful of bills – and only two of them guaranteed major signature ceremonies to the White House. One of them, a measure he signed on Monday, reprimanding the revenge porn, has passed with crushing Bipartisan support.
The bill he tried to sell Tuesday on Capitol Hill is a very different animal, with a much less certain future. Republicans must transmit it on party lines, and they cannot afford to lose more than two votes on the floor of the room, assuming no absence. Currently, President Mike Johnson does not have the necessary support.
And negotiate in both directions of risks alienating more on the other side – while the conservatives are looking for deeper cuts, the moderates are concerned about the policy of stripping the health coverage of vulnerable Americans. Others still want a greater deduction for state and local taxes, which Trump once argued before specifying Tuesday that he did not want the so-called salt provisions to hold his precious bill.
“Stop talking about salt,” a republican told Trump at the meeting. “Do not ask.”
For a president wishing to make a more permanent mark than the decrees, which a successor can quickly overthrow, the battle on his budget has become his most difficult test to date – exhibiting deep divisions in the government controlled by the GOP.
These are not necessarily divisions that the president is looking forward to repairing. From his point of view, the bill already contains everything he has promised as a candidate. The debate that followed among the Republicans on deficits or explosive cups in Medicaid is a by-product of his campaign promises, but it is not himself something that the president had sworn to resolve.
And while Trump declared himself the biggest “fiscal falcon” of everyone before Tuesday’s meeting, it also seems suspicious of becoming the face of the deep cuts of government or food aid programs. He told the Republicans on Tuesday not to “F ** K” with Medicaid as part of the bargaining to obtain the invoice on the finish line.
For Trump, the brand is King. By wrapping all of its national program into a single element of legislation under the title “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, the president put almost all his eggs in a single basket. And failure is not an entertainment option by the White House.
Despite all Trump’s trips lately, including a trip to the Middle East last week when he received opulent welcome and announced agreements in three Gulf capitals, his swing in Pennsylvania avenue on Tuesday could be his most important trip of all.
“There are people who want two things that I don’t like or that they will not get,” said Trump, sending a message to his republican colleagues to be held on the bill would be neither authorized nor forgiven.
One of the greatest legislative achievements of his first time was the law on tax reductions and jobs, which Trump signed on December 22, 2017. He came as a Christmas present that put a bow on a first year in difficult mandate
And he included an expiration date that is soon due.
While Summer Dawns, Trump is at a time critical of his presidency. Since entering into office, he has aware that the clock turns. Even if the Republicans of the Chamber manage to overcome objections and adopt the bill, senators should make significant modifications to erase it in their room. This would mean another getaway through the Fractious House – and potentially weeks of additional negotiations.
“He knows that this year will shape his presidency,” Trump’s main advisor said to CNN, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations with the president. “It’s the best chance to keep your promises.”