Prepare yourself for several years even more Record heat This pushes the earth to more deadly, ardent and uncomfortable extremes, two of the main meteorological agencies in the world.
There is an 80% chance that Le Monde Batra another annual temperature record in the next five years, and it is even more likely that the world will once again exceed the international temperature threshold 10 years ago, according to a five -year forecast published Wednesday by the World Meteorological Organization and the British Meteorological Bureau.
“Higher global average temperatures may seem abstract, but this translates into real life by a higher chance of extreme time: stronger hurricanes, stronger precipitation, droughts,” said Natalie Mahowald of Cornell University, Natalie Mahowald, which was not one of the calculations but said they had meaning. “Higher global average temperatures result in more lost lives.”
With each tenth of degree, the world warms up from climate change caused by humans “We will undergo higher and more extreme frequency events (in particular heat waves but also droughts, floods, fires and hurricanes / typhoons of human strengthening)”, sent an email to Johan Rockstrom, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate German. He was not part of the research.
And for the first time, there is a chance – although lightly – that before the end of the decade, the annual temperature of the world will pass in front of the target of Paris Climate Agreement to limit warming to 1.5 C (2.7 F) and has reached a 2 C (3.6 F) more alarming since the mid -1800s, said the two agencies.
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There is an 86% chance that one of the next five years will spend 1.5 degrees and 70% like the five years as a whole on average than this world stage, according to them.
The projections come from more than 200 forecasts using computer simulations managed by 10 world centers of scientists.
Ten years ago, the same teams thought that there was a chance from a similar distance – approximately one percent – that one of the coming years would exceed this critical threshold of 1.5 degrees, then it happened last year. This year, a Celsius two degrees above the pre-industrial year enters the equation in the same way, which the United Kingdom has met the head of long-term predictions Adam Scaife and the scientist Leon Hermanson called “shocking”.
“It’s not something that someone wants to see, but that’s what science tells us,” said Hermanson. Two degrees of warming are the secondary threshold, that considered to be less likely to break, established by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
Technically, even if 2024 was 1.5 C warm than pre -industrial times, the threshold of the Paris climate agreement is for a period of 20 years, it was therefore not exceeded. Taking into account in the past 10 years and providing for the next 10 years, the world is probably approximately 1.4 C (2.5 F) warmer since the mid -1800s, said the world director of the meteorological organization Climate Services Chris Hewitt.
“With the next five years planned for more than 1.5 C warm than pre -industrial levels on average, this will put more people than ever at risk of serious waves of heat, causing more deaths and serious health impacts unless people are better protected from the effects of heat. University of Exeter.
The ice in the Arctic – which will continue to warm up 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world – will melt and the seas will increase faster, said Hewitt.
What tends to occur is that global temperatures increase such as driving on an escalator, with temporary and natural weather cycles of El Nino acting like jumps up or down on this escalator, scientists said. But in recent times, after each jump of an El Nino, which adds warming in the globe, the planet does not back down much, if at all.
“Record temperatures immediately become the new normal,” said Stanford University Climate Rob Jackson.
& Copy 2025 the Canadian press