Deloitte’s latest economic prospects come to the pain of price Bringing together the pace in the coming months, because the short -term boost of the frontal loading activity of companies fades.
The company says that the uncertainty of trade policies and business efforts to obtain orders before prices affect a sharp drop in investment and increase in unemployment.
Deloitte Canada’s chief economist Dawn Desjardins says that a modest slowdown is ahead of Canada, while loss of free trade access in the United States would create a more permanent success, reducing the real Canadian GDP by around three% by 2030.
The company highlights the little clarity that goes ahead, which makes forecasts in the longer term difficult, but in the short term, it sees Canada’s GDP decreasing by 1.1% in the second quarter, then 0.9% additional in the third quarter.
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He says that Canada should always have a positive growth of 1.2% for 2025 as a whole given the increased activity at the start of the year.
The first approach to activity can be seen in particular in areas such as investments in machines and equipment, where Deloitte provides a leap of 30% from one year to the other in the first quarter, but a decrease of 37% in the second.
Investment in global activities should see a drop of 11.5% in the second quarter, as areas such as construction also fell back.
The lower investments and the prudence of companies will also signify employment cuts.
Deloitte sees unemployment culminating at 7.5% in the third quarter before starting to go back to less than seven percent next year.
With uncertainty on American tariff policies is the way in which the liberal government led by Mark-Carney in Canada will react, although Deloitte says that support should focus on infrastructure expenses to prepare for the change in trade models.
It is not yet clear to what extent the policies will work, but Desjardins says that there is the potential that growth could be stronger than expected by focusing on productivity and diversification of trade.
“If we can capitalize on this momentum, Canada’s economy may well find this shock stronger and more resilient,” she said.
& Copy 2025 the Canadian press