The GOP’s Post-Election Challenge: Turning Trump Voters into Full-Fledged Republicans: From the Politburo

The dynamics of individual candidates and campaigns can certainly partly explain this phenomenon. In Arizona, for example, the widespread unpopularity of Republican Kari Lake clearly gave an extra boost to Democrat Ruben Gallego, who actually received more votes than his party’s top ticket, Vice President Kamala Harris.

But overall, the general trend is striking, especially in light of recent history. In the previous two presidential elections combined, only one state produced a result split between the White House and Senate. It was Maine in 2020, when voters re-elected Republican Sen. Susan Collins while supporting Democrat Joe Biden for president.

There are likely several factors at work here, but two stand out as potential long-term problems for the Republican Party.

The first involves voters who were motivated to vote for Trump, but then skipped every other race on the ballot. There is evidence of this. My colleague Scott Bland found that in Nevada’s Washoe County, the state’s second largest, 6.6 percent of Trump voters left the Senate race empty or opted for a third-party candidate (or used the state’s single option “none of the above”). ). Meanwhile, 4.9% of Harris voters did the same.

That’s only a small portion of the GOP’s decline in Nevada, but it’s a result that’s consistent with one item in our NBC News poll from this year. We found that Trump fared better among infrequent voters (showing a 15-point advantage among those who had not voted in 2020) who expressed lower levels of interest in the election and were disproportionately young, non-white and male. It is plausible that a significant number of these people ended up becoming “Trump-only” voters, raising the question of whether the Republican Party will be able to convert them into full-fledged Republican voters in the future, when Trump does not. will not be on the ballot.

The other factor the Republican Party will have to address is Democratic defectors — traditionally Democratic voters who essentially made an exception for Trump.

That appears to have been at work in Wisconsin, where Trump won by about 30,000 votes even as Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin was re-elected by roughly the same margin. The move from Trump to his party’s Senate candidate (Eric Hovde) was more pronounced in rural and working-class countiesmany of which were Democratic territory until Trump’s emergence. Here, Trump further expanded his support, which was key to his statewide victory, but those gains did not carry over to the ballot.

Republicans will have to find a way to make this happen in the future – without Trump.

Trump’s choice for defense secretary is in jeopardy in the Senate

By Courtney Kube, Frank Thorp V, Ryan Nobles and Garrett Haake

President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Defense Department, Pete Hegseth, is in jeopardy as Senate Republicans grow increasingly concerned about reports of his tenure. suspected alcohol consumption And treatment of women.

As many as six Senate Republicans, perhaps more, are currently uncomfortable supporting Hegseth’s nomination to lead the Pentagon as new revelations about the former Fox News anchor’s past continue to emerge. ‘be made public, three Republican sources with direct knowledge of his nomination process told NBC News. . Given the slim Republican majority in the Senate in the next Congress, Hegseth can only afford to lose three Republican votes, assuming all Democrats vote against him.

Sen. Joni Ernst, Republican of Iowa, who serves on the Armed Services Committee, would not commit to supporting Hegseth’s nomination and said she plans to question him about reports of his allegations of alcohol abuse, mistreatment of women and financial mismanagement.

“We’re just going to have a really frank, in-depth conversation,” Ernst said of Hegseth’s nomination process.

Hegseth, a National Guard veteran, was accused of sexually assaulting a woman in California in 2017, according to a police report was made public after Trump announced he would nominate the former Fox host as secretary of defense. Hegseth has not been charged and has denied the woman’s allegations, saying the encounter was consensual, although he paid an undisclosed amount as part of a settlement with her.

Separately, NBC News reported Tuesday that Hegseth’s drinking was a concern to his colleagues at Fox News, according to 10 current and former Fox employees. Two of them said Hegseth smelled of alcohol before going on air more than a dozen times. Hegseth did not respond when asked to comment on the allegations Tuesday evening at the Capitol.

The initial allegations against Hegseth last month do not appear to endanger his planned appointment. After his first round of meetings on Capitol Hill last month, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., chairman of the Armed Services Committee, said he expected Hegesth to be confirmed. But on Tuesday, after a series of other reports about Hegseth’s past but before NBC News reported allegations about drinking on Fox News, Wicker was more cautious.

“I think some members have questions and we’re going to look for an answer,” Wicker said.

Read more →

🚨 In the meantime … In Hillsborough County, Florida, Sheriff Chad Chronister, Trump’s pick to become the next DEA administrator, stepped down Tuesday. Read more →

That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. If you have any comments (like or dislike), please email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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