The elected president of Poland Karol Nawrocki occupies a largely ceremonial role, but his impact on the country’s policy in the next five years can be deep.
The supporters of Nawrocki, the national opposition of conservative law and justice), feel revitalized after having lost power 18 months ago against the pro-EU coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
They see his Success in Sunday’s vote – by a margin of 50.9% – 49.1% compared to the liberal mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski – as the first step towards a return to power.
The president of Poland has a limited influence on foreign and defense policy, but can propose and oppose his veto. The Tusk government does not have a majority of parliamentary enough to overthrow a presidential veto.
The outgoing conservative president, Andrzej Duda, used his blocking powers and the threat of using them to prevent the Prime Minister from holding many of his key campaign promises.
They include Polish women the right to legal abortion until the 12th week of pregnancy, the legalization of civil partnerships, including homosexual relations, the acceleration of earthly ground developments and the abolition of the political influence of the judiciary.
Nawrocki, a socially conservative historian, should be an even more difficult opponent for Tusk than Duda. Some believe that the resulting paralysis could lead to the government to hold early elections before the expected deadline for the fall of 2027.
“In all probability, this will mean the first elections because it will veto any law that the government adopts,” Konstanty Gebert, journalist of the weekly magazine, Kultura Liberalna told the BBC.
“Constitutionally, the first elections are difficult to do if the government does not want it, but if it goes from defeat to defeat and cannot govern, they could decide that they are the slightest evil,” he said.
The Tusk government has a parliamentary majority, so it can remain in office until the fall of 2027 unless the coalition breaks.
This union includes the Conservative People’s Party, centrists and leftists, which is a key reason why Tusk failed to conclude an agreement on issues such as abortion and civil partnerships.
Alternatively, the government could decide that the first elections are in its best interest.
Nawrocki is a Polish proud patriotic, a conservative Catholic who opposes illegal migration, extending legal rights to people in homosexual relations and liberalizes the strict law on the abortion of the country.
He believes that Tusk’s vision to cement Poland in the dominant current of the EU based on good relations with Brussels, Berlin and Paris against Polish national interests. These interests are better served, he says, defending Germany when their opinions diverge and not giving up more powers in Brussels. Nawrocki opposes the EU climate proposals, such as The Green Deal, because he says that the limitation of greenhouse gas emissions will harm small Polish farmers.
Nawrocki supports continuous military and humanitarian assistance to neighboring Ukraine. Poland is home to the international center for supplies in Kyiv. But he does not think that Ukraine joined NATO or the EU while the Russian aggression continues improves the security of Poland.
He is a supporter of American president Donald Trump and criticized the approach that the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky Sadly famous Oval Office Dressing. The US Secretary for Homeland Security Kristi Noem flew to Poland a few days before the elections to approve Nawrocki, a passionate amateur boxer, calling him a “strong” leader like Trump.
The result of the elections was close, similar to that won by Duda against Trzaskowski five years ago, a sign that the country’s political polarization did not release.
In a speech of premature victory, pronounced after an exit survey gave him a thin victory like a vote on Sunday evening, Trzaskowski promised to be president for all the posts.
Speaking at the same time, Nawrocki made no promise of such. Instead, he told his supporters that his campaign had managed to unite the “patriotic camp” in Poland. None of the candidates inspired the confidence they would make constructive efforts to reach out to the other side.
Prolonged conflicts between the two political groups that dominated Polish policy for two decades can fuel increased support for the anti-establishments, such as the far-right confederation or the hard left.
The young libertarian candidate of the Slawomir Mentzen Confederation continued the group’s recent gains, third in the first round of the presidential election. Could this increase his support and could he be convinced to join a future government led by IP?
Another chief of the Krzysztof Bosak Confederation denied this last possibility on Monday, saying that the two parties would not approach because they are fighting for the same voters.