Do not panic.
Faced with the reform of the United Kingdom winning the Runcorn and Helsby Partial election (just), the mayor of the Grand Lincolnshire and a likely avalanche of council seats, panic will be a popular option for work and conservatives, but a bad. Instead, it’s time to think, hard.
The reform of the vote is essentially unleashed, a howl of protest against the state of everything. He deserves an answer, but in copy Andrea Jenkyns of the Grand Lincolnshire – who would put Migrants in tents Because hotels are too good for them – isn’t it. Traditional politicians make it impressively echoing things that they do not simply think of reform voters that the reform was absolutely right, while guaranteeing conservative extinction in southern orders and pushing the Greens or Libs whose tactical votes vote the needs of work.
Politics at a time of fragmentation is essentially the race for the construction of a winning block, a stable combination of left or right parties, in front of the other guy. For work, this implies doing certain things that progressives hate (credible action on immigration, the endless flag) but to stick to its arms on Net Zero, to rebuild public services, to tackle poverty and despair.
If it’s 2013 again – the last time Nigel Farage triumphed in local elections – In 2015, David Cameron was re -elected. Farage is battable, but not by throwing the baby with the bath water.
The former political secretary of Tony Blair and a current political strategist for BCW
Bipartite policy is back. The results of the elections declared so far this morning show that the future of British policy is a fight between two main parties – work and reform. Opinion polls were right: Nigel Farage is the head of law in Great Britain. The humiliation has been supported for the Conservative Party puts Kemi Badenoch’s leadership on support for life and means that the reform will dictate the terms of any agreement between the two parts of the law. In politics, you can never chat with the momentum – and Farage certainly has it.
With a sagging support, the workforce held the mayors DoncasterNorth Tyneside and western England, pushing the reform in second place – demonstrating that the Rolls -Royce electoral machine of the Labor Party is always the best in the class and that progressive green sensations can be revealed for work when it is important.
What should be taken from the results? The fact that the electoral competition now concerns the change – it was the work slogan last year and is also the implicit message in the name of Farage’s Party. But change for what? The reform is clear-being a pro-workman and pro-nationalization, a kind of work-book. It is a Labor fight can win if he remembers who the party is for.
Communications and High Co-Animator Straturer, under the Podcast Radar
There are still many votes to count. And, even once they are, the number of seats disputed this week is too small to tell us something final on the political future of the United Kingdom. Until now, the participation rate has been low and the reform rise has mainly harmed the Conservatives. But the results, especially in Runcorn and Lincolnshire, are always a headache for work.
They should be a sign that their current strategy does not work. There will undoubtedly be in the party looking to Mark Carney’s recent victory In Canada and say that the solution is a change of leader. Turn off Keir Starmer for Wes Streting and all our problems will be over.
They miss the biggest problem. What Nigel Farage and Reform have is the momentum and, more importantly, a coherent story on what is wrong with Great Britain and what must happen to repair it. Until the Labor Party has a competing history that connects to the public at an emotional level, it will continue to wade. Farage launched its local electoral campaign in a rally on a JCB and speaking of Nids-de-Poule. He ended his speech with a five -year plan to obtain a reform to the government. The workforce must also be daring to define a vision and as effective in communicating he.
Environmental militant and former green deputy
We celebrate our earnings in counties such as Gloucestershire, Devon and Worcestershire, where we have taken seats both work and conservatives. And in the fields now dominated by the reform, such as Staffordshire and Durham, we are made to show a robust opposition and based on principles.
We are now in an unprecedented era of five parties in the United Kingdom, but we are stuck with the first after the post – an electoral system built for a bygone era of bipartite domination. The result is a fundamentally broken relationship between the way people vote and which holds power – and, as the results of the partial function in Runcorn and the Greater Lincolnshire Mayoralty I have just shown it, the main beneficiaries are the populist reform, capitalizing on the anger of the public and the armaments against the minorities and against our institutions. Whatever the final results today, one thing is certain: if we are serious about the restoration of self -confidence, we must start by replacing our archaic voting system with a fairer alternative.
There are special lessons for work. Trying to overcome the reform does not work. Instead of planting to the right, the government urgently needs to rethink its approach. He could start by responding to the real concerns of workers by taxing wealth so that we can rebuild our public services which have a Remove the support of sick and disabled people.
As green, we understand why people have lost confidence in the old tired evenings. While they collapse in popularity, we know that we are going to take votes of both, as we did during the general elections, where even in the bipartite system, we have managed to work strategically to unravel – often being the only credible alternative to the rise of the reform. And unlike the reform, we have a delivery history, having been part of the administration in power of more than 40 councils, including the municipal council of Bristol, where We took control Last year. We have increased our number of consecutive seven years advisers, and we are sure that it will be an eighth. We know that voters want change, and the Greens have this daring and positive vision which contrasts with the reform whose policy generates fear and division.
It is often said that any policy is local. We have rarely noted such volatility during the local council elections, because voters are increasingly motivated by national concerns such as the cost of living.
The Liberals-Democrats produced major gains of council seats, in particular in the southwest of England, relying on the 72 deputies elected last July. At the time of writing the present Elected advisers So far, making the second largest number of net gains.
With the spectacular victory of Runcorn and Helsby of the reform, it would seem that voting for the party is the new spoiled ballot, a vote of protest of the former conservative and workist voters. The success of the reform is important in terms of political orientation, if that means that work will imitate its policies to win back voters. The conservatives already adopt reform policies while telling people not to vote for them. The government should take note of how it works.
Deputy Conservativehome publisher
There are bad nights and there are very bad nights, and for the conservatives last night, it was the last.
The reform took place directly at the top of the expectations of the pollsters, winning the overall control of the councils of the Staffordshire and the Lincolnshire of the Tories, as well as important victories against work, the most obviously in Runcorn and Helsby.
Most of the Conservatives had “evaluated” poor performance. Although the party did the local elections after leaving his duties (under William Hague, he picked up hundreds of advisers in 1998), the circumstances this time were very different.
Rather than collapsing slowly during a whole parliament, just like the great government, the last conservative government fell from an extraordinary speed. This meant that these elections were led last time at the top of Boris Johnson’s popularity – and it was never going to be a flattering criterion.
Kemi Badenoch and his team were also, from the start, arguing that these elections were simply too early to count as a real test of the new leader.
But it is one thing to make you rationalizations in the abstract, and another not to panic when the real results arrive. And conservative deputies have become used to panic.
Former president of Yougov
Nigel Farage should take advantage of the triumphs of the reform while he can. It can be as good as possible. In May 2015, his former party, UKIP, took control of Thanet District Council. Before last night, it was the only time his games won the power to execute anything. What pointers do they offer the coming months?
The majority of 10 places from UKIP in Thanet should have given him four years of power to show what his new policy of politics could achieve. Alas, it turned out that it was very little. Six months later, five of his advisers defected, following internal rows at a local airport. A bypass election subsequently restored its majority, but only until another advisor gets rid of, saying that UKIP had not brought “significant change”. The following year, 12 UKIP advisers took off to form an independent group. The days in charge of UKIP Thanet were completed. In 2019, he presented only three candidates. They all lost.
Thanet was not the only place where Ukip fought. In 2017, seven of his 12 advisers to Great Yarmouth defeated the conservatives – although to be fair, some defections elsewhere went in the other direction, including two conservative deputies, Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless.
Maybe everything will be different this time. After today, the reform will have much more likely To show what it does with power. An era of milk, honey and joyful unit – or arsenic, ash and destructive divisions? We will see.