However, the new report from STEER, a Stanford organization funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), focused on assessing the technological and economic impact of emerging energy technologies.
The study’s lead author, Adrian Yao, worked for eight years as the founder and CTO of Li-ion battery startup EnPower. Yao identifies 2022, the first time Li-ion battery prices have increasedas an instigator for battery manufacturers to explore sodium-ion manufacturing.
After price spikes amid the pandemic, Li-ion prices have returned to their downward trend and sodium-ion may be in a weaker position to overtake its market share.
Yao said of the situation: “We recognized that if, when and how sodium-ion batteries could reduce the price of lithium-ion was largely speculative, especially as the price of lithium-ion continues to decrease. »
According to BloombergNEF, Global average Li-ion battery prices fell 20% in 2024falling below US$100/kWh for electric vehicles (EVs). This is the largest annual decline since 2017.
STEER’s study and DOE’s 2022 energy storage supply chain analysis both highlight that there are dangers in relying on Li-ion just because it is more affordable technology. There are also potential security risks. The study simulates what would happen if, for example, there was a graphite supply shock.
Graphite serves as an anode in Li-ion batteries. Most graphite is mined in China, and the United States currently has no natural graphite production sites. China also began restricting exports of graphite and other technologies related to battery and lithium processing to the United States in 2024..
The use of sodium-ion could be more advantageous in these situations, despite current technological advances. challenges related to energy density, lifespan and performance.
There are alternatives to mined graphite, such as synthetic graphite, of which the United States still produces very little. Other materials, like silicon, which can contain 10 times more lithium ions by mass than graphite, are still in their early stages, as noted. by Callum McGuinn, partner at European intellectual property (IP) firm Mewburn Ellis for Energy-storage.news (Premium access article).
The STEER study also notes that if lithium prices continue to decline over time, sodium-ion has a narrower set of technological pathways to become price advantageous.
Yao added of the study: “A key thing we learned from industry practitioners is that while battery cell prices are important, technologies are only successful at the systems level – e.g. , an electric vehicle or a grid-scale battery energy storage system.
“That’s why we are now broadening our focus to provide more holistic perspectives, including understanding the cost of security and other systems considerations.”
Companies like American BESS sodium-ion startup Peak Energy are working to introduce sodium-ion into large-scale projects and also believe it can be profitable on a smaller scale.
Talk with Energy-storage.news, Peak Energy President and Chief Compliance Officer Cameron Dales said (Premium Access Article): “From a scale perspective, we believe the economics can support a profitable business even at a gigawatt hour or less at the cell assembly level. »
“This relies on the continued growth of the entire materials supply chain. This is not a process that a single company can take to the point where it becomes profitable for LFP.
Increasing energy density will be the “fastest and safest” path to competitive advantage
In its study, STEER compared the price trends of Na-ion and Li-ion in more than 6,000 scenarios. Through these scenarios, STEER concluded that Na-ion’s biggest challenge is increasing energy densities to decrease material intensity.
As stated in the study: “The quickest and safest way for Na-ion to be cost effective is to reduce material intensity by increasing material energy densities and at cells. »
“This is quantitatively supported by the parameter sensitivity analysis presented in Figure 6, where some of the main driving factors of the forecast prices of Na-ion cells in 2030 and 2040 are the higher voltage cuts accessible, the specific capacities of the cathodes and anodes and electrode thicknesses. .”
The full study by Adrian Yao, Sally M. Benson and William C. Chueh is available here (PDF).