A recent study has called into question some of the most alarming predictions about Antarctica’s Thwaites Glacier, nicknamed the “Glacier at the end of the world,” be responsible for the seismic impacts that this could have on the world’s oceans.
Research suggests that a catastrophic collapse of the glacierwhich could lead to rapid and dramatic sea level rise, is less likely to occur this century than previously thought.
THE Thwaites Glacier West Antarctica is a major concern for climate scientists due to its unstable nature and significant contribution to global sea level rise.
Currently, it accounts for about 4 percent of the annual rise in sea levels and contains enough ice to raise them more than two feet if it melts completely, according to the International collaboration on the Thwaites Glacier (ITGC).
NASA
But these results offer a glimmer of hope amid growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on Antarctica.
Published in Scientific advances and led by researchers at Dartmouth College, the study reassessed a process known as sea ice cliff instability (MICI).
MICI predicts that when ice shelves collapse, they expose towering ice cliffs that could collapse under their own weight, setting off a chain reaction of rapid glacier retreat.
Although MICI features prominently in worst-case climate models, it has never been observed in real-world conditions and has previously been simulated using older, low-resolution models.
Using updated computer simulations, the Dartmouth team found that IBD is unlikely to occur this century in Thwaites. Even if the entire glacier ice shelf collapsed today, the resulting ice cliffs would likely not be high enough to collapse and trigger the catastrophic chain reaction previously feared.
“We’re not saying Antarctica is safe,” said Professor Mathieu Morlighem, lead author of the study at Dartmouth College. said in a statement.
“Sea level rise remains a pressing problem, but we believe the most extreme predictions for this century are less likely.”
These results call into question the high-risk scenarios presented in reports from organizations like the The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). While the IPCC had included the MICI-driven collapse in its projections of extreme sea level rise, the new research suggests that Thwaites’ retreat will likely remain gradual throughout the 21st century.
Even without IBD, the melting of the Thwaites and nearby glaciers remains a major concern.
The bedrock beneath Thwaites slopes downward as it moves inland, making it difficult to slow its retreat once it begins to lose more ice than it gains due to falls of snow.
As global warming accelerates this process, the instability of the glacier could still have long-term consequences.
Since 2018, the ITGC, a collaboration between the United States and the United Kingdom, has closely monitored Thwaites, a glacier the size of Florida.
Just a few months ago, scientists were warning that the glacier could be heading toward imminent collapse.
“Thwaites is almost like the jugular of Antarctica,” said Kiya Riverman, a glaciologist at the University of Portland and involved with the ITGC. previously told Newsweek. “This is a point at which the damage has a considerable impact on us.”
She added: “We have already reached a tipping point with Thwaites.”
Although the risk of a dramatic collapse this century may be reduced, the long-term impacts of melting Antarctic ice remain a pressing concern.
Currently, sea level is rising of 0.13 inches per year, according to NASA. Much of this increase is due to melting ice in polar regions.
“The sooner we prioritize and attempt to understand these changes, the more we will prepare future generations to successfully mitigate their effects,” Riverman said.
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Reference
Morlighem, M., Goldberg, D., Barnes, JM, Bassis, JN, Benn, DI, Crawford, AJ, Gudmundsson, GH and Seroussi, H. (2024). The West Antarctic Ice Sheet may not be vulnerable to sea ice cliff instability during the 21st century. Scientific advances, 10(34), eado7794. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.ado7794