Republican legislators say there is a good chance that the trade war of President Trump Boomerang on the politically Republicans in 2026, because the rise in prices and the growth of reduction could compensate for other GOP achievements.
The Republican Senators point to the elections of 1932 and 1982 as historical examples of the moment when the trade wars and the inflation of the resulting price deals with their party during the urn, and they fear that history will repeat itself.
Many Republican legislators consider prices as an increase in taxes on American consumers, and some note that the Congress of the last two times has promulgated tax increases across Trump’s recent rates, the president’s party has been erased in the next elections.
“In the national elections, you can return to 1982 when I think that it was around 26 seats in the congress that were lost (by the Republicans),” said senator Thom Tillis (RN.C.), which will be a democratic target superior to the mid-term elections next year.
In 1982, the first mid-term election of the president of the time, the GOP of the Chamber lost 26 seats in the midst of high interest rates and the sour vision of the voters of the economy. The Senate’s GOP has lost a seat in this cycle.
The same year, the Congress adopted the law on equity and tax responsibility, which increased the excise and taxes on companies and improved tax compliance – increasing federal income by almost 1% depending on the non -partisan tax foundation.
“Without a doubt, if we have the same discussions on the prices in February of next year, all the indicators would be” a bad track “,” said Tillis.
He said the Trump administration needed to win the favorable commercial transactions it promised in February next year or that Republicans could pay a high political price.
“They have about 10 months to wrap an arc around that and say,” You see, I told you “or you will start to see political winds,” said Tillis.
The other election looming in the memory of the legislators is the 1994 competition when the Republicans picked up 54 seats in the Chamber and eight seats in the Senate after the president of the time, Clinton, increased taxes by signing the 1993 law on the reconciliation of the omnibus budget.
The tax foundation estimated in a Friday report that Trump prices will increase the annual government income as a share of the gross domestic product by 0.56%, the largest increase since Clinton signed the 1993 increase in taxes.
The Republican senators expressed their relief when Trump announced that he would abandon the steep reciprocal prices which he announced on most countries for a period of 90 days, but they say that political danger has not succeeded, noting that Trump slapped a 145% tariff on China and China retaliated with a 125% tariff on American imports.
While the stock markets criticized after Trump announced his 90 -day break on most of the most steep tariff increases, they fell back Thursday in the middle of persistent anxiety about the United States Directorate. Friday, the markets resumed some of these losses.
Legislators have noted that the sale on bond markets is particularly painful due to its involvement for the broader economy. Yields on treasures 10 years and 30 years has skyrocketed this week, reaching 4.59% and 4.88%, exerting upward pressure on costs for businesses and consumers.
The 30 -year yield – the basis of many mortgage rates – has seen its largest weekly increase since 1982, according to Yahoo Finance.
A republican assistant from the Senate who asked for anonymity said Trump was likely to grop his best problem in the 2024 elections, the economy, which was the absolute priority of voters last year.
A Gallup survey published in October showed Trump with a 9 -point lead on his opponent, then Vice President Kamala Harris on the treatment of the economy.
An economist / Yougov survey published last week revealed that the Trump’s employment approval rating dropped 5 percentage points compared to last week in the middle of the turmoil caused by his pricing ads.
Prices were a particular concern in agricultural states.
“It is not good for my farmers,” said Senator Mike Rounds (Rs.D.) last week of turmoil in the stock, basic products and bond markets.
Rounds, who is ready to be re -elected next year, said: “We have a lot of people who count on the possibility of selling our products around the world.”
China, which is Trump’s largest tariff target and responded with its own prices on American products, imported $ 1.4 billion in southern Dakota in 2022, last year for which data was available. This represented 28% of the goods produced in the state of Mount Rushmore.
Some Republicans warn that the increase in prices is just as dangerous as the increase in taxes, an anathema in today’s GOP.
“Prices are a consumer tax, and I’m not a fan of setting up tax on American consumers,” said Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas) in an interview with Fox Business Larry Kudlow.
Senator Rand Paul (R-KY.) Warning republlant orders that they could face landslide defeats next year if they do not change trade in trade, which, according to him, could trigger a serious economic recession.
Paul stressed that the authors of the Smoot -Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 – Sens. Reed SMOOT (Rutah) and Willis Hawley (R-ORE.)-Both were defeated during the 1932 elections.
He said he thought that the prices promulgated in 1930 aggravated the great depression and injured the republican party brand for decades afterwards.
“We have entered the desert for a very long time,” he said. “Depression was multifactorial, but most historians wrote that this Smoot-Hawley rate actually worsened things and the longer depression.
“I don’t think politics is good,” he said. “The economy of prices is bad; Politics, if necessary, is worse. “
The Senate Democrat, Chuck Schumer (NY) said that Trump’s prices push the country in a recession, and he affirms that this already affects the feeling in the States of the Battlefield of the Senate.
“We see it moving the political needle across the country because people have less than less confidence in Donald Trump’s treatment of economic policies of this country, clear and simple. We see it in almost all states, and figures continue to worsen for him,” said Schumer at a recent press conference.
Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine), another high-level democratic target in mid-term elections of 2026, also spoke out against Trump’s prices on allies, in particular the 25% rate on Canada.
She told the hill that she opposed the heavy rate on Canadian imports due to the economic impact on her country of origin.
“I never thought that putting prices on friendly countries that are our allies is the way to follow,” she said.
She remembered Trump’s best sales advisor Peter Navarro, the negative impact of prices on the Maine lobster industry during Trump’s first term.
“I remember (in) the first administration speak with Peter Navarro of the impact on the lobster industry. There are times when prices are appropriate. I think China is an example. Canadian prices make no sense, “she said. “This is the position I have had for a very long time.”