It has never been more important for an NFL team to land the No. 1 seed in their conference. The two number one teams are the only ones with a bye in the first round of the playoffs, while all other playoff teams must compete to advance to the following week.
An interesting situation is currently brewing at the NFC summit. Three teams – the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings – could finish the season with identical records. Currently, these three teams are 12-2 with three games remaining. If they all win the same number of games over the next three weeks, how will the NFL determine who gets the bye?
First, let’s review the league tiebreaker procedures.
How the NFL Breaks Ties
The NFL has several criteria in place to decide ties. It starts with the teams’ records in matches against each other and continues through various scenarios. If the tie is still not broken at the end of the penultimate category, the last stage is a draw.
Here are the steps to break a tie in the NFL between teams from different divisions (division ties are determined with the additional step of division record between steps 1 and 2):
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Head-to-head (best win-lose-tie percentage in club matches).
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Best win-lose-tie percentage in games played within the conference.
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Best win-lose-tie percentage in common games, minimum of four.
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Strength of victory in all games.
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Strength of schedule in all matches.
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Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
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Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
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Best net points in conference games.
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Best net points in all games.
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Best net touchdowns in all games.
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Draw
The NFC North factor
The Lions beat the Vikings 31-29 in their first meeting of the season on October 20, so they have the advantage heading into the teams’ second game in Week 18 on January 5. The Lions don’t have any, but both teams also play another divisional game: the Lions take on the Bears in Week 16 and the Vikings take on the Packers in Week 17. It could very likely come down to this final. game.
If the season ended today…
The tiebreaker would be between the Lions and Eagles. Because they haven’t played each other this season and aren’t in the same division, we move to conference record. As of December 17, the Eagles had lost twice in conference play (Week 2 to the Atlanta Falcons, Week 4 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), while the Lions had one conference loss (Week 2 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers). ), while their Week 15 loss was to the Buffalo Bills of the AFC North.
If the season ended now, these conference losses would determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC. And the Lions would hold the tiebreaker against the Eagles and Vikings, making them the No. 1 seed.
Looking ahead, if the Lions win, they will be the No. 1 seed. If the Eagles and Vikings win, the Vikings will likely hold the tiebreaker due to the strength of the victory, according to the Detroit Free Press.