Ten years ago, Jean-François Lisée predicted that The Quebec independence movement would be reborn.
“It could rise again if the circumstances are right,” he said in 2015. “What might trigger it, I can’t say.”
Three years later, as leader of the sovereignist Parti Québécois, Lisée lost his riding and saw his party reduced to 10 seats when the new Coalition Avenir Québec, led by François Legault, came to power for the first time.
The 2018 election was widely seen as proof that separatism was no longer a defining issue in Quebec politics, and pollsters speculated that the PQ’s days were numbered. The province’s new leader was a former sovereignist at the head of a conservative-leaning nationalist party that had promised not to hold a referendum, and Quebecers rewarded him with a decisive majority.
“There are several Quebecers who are putting aside a debate that has divided us for 50 years,” Legault declared after his victory.
Today, on the eve of the 30th anniversary of the second referendum on Quebec independence — the first took place in 1980 — it seems that the tide could turn again. Legault is deeply unpopular after six years in power, and the Parti Québécois, with a young and charismatic leader, has led in the polls for more than a year.
However, it remains to be seen whether the party, which promises to hold a third referendum by 2030, can breathe new life into the province’s aging independence movement.
If elections were held today, polls suggest the Parti Québécois would easily win a majority. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, a 47-year-old Oxford graduate, has injected youthful energy into a party on the brink of extinction.
Émile Simard, head of the PQ’s youth wing, believes that the party’s popularity will revive Quebec’s appetite for independence. He grew up in a sovereignist family in the Saguenay—Lac-Saint-Jean region and took out his membership card at the age of 16.
Now aged 22, he says that reasons for independence have changed somewhat since the 1995 referendum, when the No campaign won. He notably mentioned climate change.
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“It doesn’t make sense that as Quebecers, we contribute several billion dollars each year through our taxes, and then we invest massively in Alberta’s fossil fuels,” he said. .
But polls suggest the PQ’s ascendancy has yet to increase support for independence, which has hovered around 35 percent for years.
“One of the major weaknesses of the independence movement in Quebec is the fact that it does not resonate with the younger generation,” said David Heurtel, political analyst and former Quebec Liberal minister.
“Independence in Quebec, in the 60s, 70s, 80s and even in 95, was the thing of the young, connected generation,” he declared. “You don’t see that today.”
Simard was not born until years after the 1995 referendum. In fact, he pointed out, no Quebecer under the age of 47 has ever voted for independence. He thinks young people say they support the status quo because they have never seriously considered an alternative.
“For them, this remains a hypothetical debate,” he said.
Simard said a referendum campaign would force young people to think more deeply about the issue. “For me it is obvious that we must give ourselves the opportunity to make a decision on this issue,” he said.
Even if young Quebecers are not particularly sovereignists, they are not particularly federalists either, said Charles Breton, director general of the Center of Excellence on the Canadian Federation at the Institute for Research on Public Policy.
“They just don’t know it, and part of that is because it’s not an issue we’ve talked about,” he said.
Breton fears that if a new independence movement takes hold, many Canadians might react with a shrug. In 1995, approximately 100,000 people gathered in Montreal for the unity rally to urge Quebecers to vote “No.”
But this time, Breton asked: “Who would lead the ‘no’ team in Quebec and who would be the voice in the rest of Canada to try to keep Quebec?”
The prospect of a conservative federal government weighs heavily on any discussion of Quebec independence. Heurtel said a change in Ottawa could hurt the PQ’s prospects, since Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre favors a more hands-off approach toward the provinces.
“Poilièvre will not be the same type of enemy that nationalists and sovereignists can exploit, while (Prime Minister Justin) Trudeau is a much better target,” he said.
But Simard said a Conservative government in Ottawa coupled with a Trump administration south of the border could drive home the message that Quebec is better off on its own.
“Is this the kind of Canada that interests us, a Canada where values like the environment… are put aside? he said.
Breton said it was difficult to imagine Poilievre, who remains unpopular in Quebec, as the point man for unity in a third referendum campaign. Trudeau is better suited to the job, he said.
He’s not the only one who thinks so. Eddie Goldenberg, chief of staff to former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, wrote an editorial in October calling on Trudeau to resign as prime minister and prepare “to play a leading role in defending Canada during a possible referendum on the independence of Quebec.
As things stand, the sovereignist Bloc Québécois could well form the official opposition for the first time since 1993 in this year’s federal election, which risks decimating the Liberals. Adding a PQ victory in 2026 could give the independence movement more influence than it has had in decades.
However, it is possible that the PQ could face a challenge from the provincial Liberals, who will launch a leadership race this month. Pablo Rodriguez, a former minister in the Trudeau government, is considered a favorite.
Heurtel said the PQ is in part just a “parking lot for the opposition” to the government, and that could change with a new Quebec Liberal leader. He also noted that many federal Liberal employees may soon be looking for jobs and could help “rebuild and reorganize” the provincial party.
For now, Breton said, independence is still “not the main thing people care about.” But it appears that the next Quebec election could once again be fought over the same old issue that was put aside in 2018.
“I am confident that a referendum is coming and that the population is ready,” Simard said. “I think it is time to write the end of this chapter in Quebec.”