- Western companies perhaps envisage a return to Russia after the war, but Moscow does not seem passionate.
- Foreign companies have left Russia due to sanctions against its invasion of Ukraine, affecting the economy.
- Russian officials say that the country favors national businesses about the return of Western businesses.
Part of the Western companies This left Russia during his war in Ukraine can be tempted to return to the end of the war – but Moscow wants them to know that he is not in a hurry to receive them.
“We are not expecting no one with open arms. There will be a price to pay for past decisions,” the Minister of Russian and commerce, to journalists, said on Thursday, according to the news agency the state.
Three years after the start of the war in Ukraine, nearly 475 foreign companies have completely left the Russian market, according to the Leave Russia database of the kyiv School of Economics. Those who have made a full output include McDonald’s,, StarbucksIKEA, the British energy giant shell and the manufacturer of Japanese tires Bridgestone.
Alikhanov said Russia prioritizes domestic marks Instead of waiting for foreign brands to return.
His comments came while US President Donald Trump reported a desire for the United States to reconcile with Moscow, triggering discussions on the return of certain missing companies.
“It is a reasonable hypothesis that some companies will seek to return to Russia following a full regulation to end the war,” Andrew Staples, director of Geopol Asia, a commercial strategy and a council told Business Insid. in geopolitical risks.
Denis Manturov, the first Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, echoed the country put by the country on national companies and those of the Eurasian economic union – a group of five post -Soviet states – according to TASS.
“We will erase those who are interested in ourselves for our market,” said Mantrov on Thursday.
Foreign companies probably do not rush into Russia either
International companies cannot resume, wrote Edward Verona, a former business manager based in Moscow in the 1990s and 2000s.
“Taking another chance on Russia may seem attractive for some. Atlantic Council Eurasia Centerwrote Thursday.
But good deals may not be sufficient to attract Western businesses still concerned with the security of non-Russian personnel and the rule of law, he said.
“American companies may feel less limited to the return than European companies given the geographic and political distance,” said Staples.
Even if sanctions were to be lifted, he said, it is difficult to imagine countries closer to the conflict-such as Poland, the Baltic States, Scandinavia, Germany, France and the United Kingdom – get involved again.
Staples said that consumer goods companies and companies operating in less sensitive sectors were more likely to return to the market than those in strategic sectors such as energy, technology, bank, finance, aerospace and defense.
Companies that seek to protect their reputation and have left Russia for moral reasons will also not return in the foreseeable future, wrote Verona, who is a former head of the American-Russia Affairs Council.
Russian War Economy
Even if companies are attracted by the prospect of returning to the Russian market, the fundamental question is whether it is worth it.
“Perhaps even more important, from the point of view of companies, the prospects for the economy are not large,” said Staples, citing challenges including high inflation and a tight monetary policy.
The Russian economy has largely held three years of Western sanctions – at least on paper – because its leaders have focused on the manufacture of defense, increase military expenditure represents 8% of its GDP in 2025.
THE The ruble collapsed At a lower two years of 113.72 against the dollar in early January, Europe’s gradual decoupling with Russian energy has paved the way for another tranche of American sanctions. This last measure, one of the last movements of the Biden administration, prevents the third largest bank in Russia from managing many payments related to energy.
However, a new wave of optimism has since supported the ruble at a six -month summit, at 88.67 against the dollar on Thursday.
The ruble has strengthened by around 14% since Trump took office on January 20.
At the same time, some of the companies in Russia – even those outside the army – are doing well. Yandex, an internet company that operates one of the largest research engines in Russia, poster Record annual income of $ 11.22 billion Thursday, increasing by 37% over one year.
Yandex’s net profit fell 78% compared to 2023, to 129 million dollars, as interest and operating costs increased. Russia has hiked interest rate At 21% last year to try to cool the increase in increase.
Yandex separated from his Dutch property domiciled in July after a two -year negotiations which ended with local buyers acquire his assets based on Russia.
But other sectors, such as its agricultural, automotive and basic products industries, have shown signs of struggle.
Especially, Europe has found new energy sources to supplant Russia, formerly its greatest energy supplier. Energy represents about a fifth of Russia’s GDP.
Require China It is slow in the middle of his economic slowdown, and Trump pushes other countries to buy more American energy – more competition for Russia exports.
“Given this economic assessment and the political risk and continuous reputation of being in Russia, is this an attractive place for foreign companies? I would not expect” precipitation to return to Russia “,” declared Staples.
Trade risks in Putin Russia
Even if the figures work, there are political risks associated with the operation in Russia where President Vladimir Putin – which is in office for a fifth term – has a all -terrain rule.
Verona de l’Eurasia Center wrote that Russia was far from the same country from west to west that it was under the direction of Boris Yetsine from 1991 to 1999.
“It was not even Russia in the early 2000s, before Vladimir Putin fully consolidated his grip on power and completed the transition from emerging democracy to the authoritarian regime,” wrote Verona. “After twenty-five years of reign of Putin, the Kremlin now dominates all aspects of Russian life, including the commercial climate of the country.”