President Mike Johnson will face a major challenge in the new Congress: the narrowest House majority in nearly 100 years.
That is, if he can keep the hammer.
Republicans will soon control the House, Senate and White House. But slim margins could jeopardize President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda. And Johnson has little margin for error when the House votes Friday to elect the president of the new Congress.
Republicans won 220 seats in the House in the November elections, while the Democrats won 215, the Most Closely Divided House majority since the start of the Great Depression almost a century ago.
And the margin should decrease further quickly.
When the House reconvenes, the partisan split is expected to be 219-215 from former Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida. said he would not return to Congress.
From there, the majority is on track to fall to 217-215, with two Republican lawmakers expected to join the Trump administration.
At this point, House Republicans could not afford a single defection to pass legislation along partisan lines until vacancies are filled.
With Republicans in control of Washington, intense pressure will be placed on Republican Party leaders to quickly implement Trump’s agenda.
But the extraordinarily narrow margin gives any rank-and-file lawmaker the opportunity to exert outsized influence by imposing demands on the speaker.
Johnson has already had to deal with it – often in the form of pressure from his right flank, a dynamic which will now intensify.
Passage of a bill in the House requires a majority of all members present and voting. The magic number is 218 if all members show up to vote and all 435 seats are filled, but this can change due to vacations or absences. A tie in the House is a failure.