Wednesday, the Bosnia and Herzegovina State Court transmitted a Pintance of a one -year prison To the Bosnian Serbian chief Milorad Dodik and forbidden him to hold a political bureau for six years. The court declared Dodik guilty of having taken stocks in July 2023 with the aim of obstructing the implementation of the decisions of the High Representative in Bosnia, the best international peace envoy in the Pays des Balkans.
The office of the High Representative (OHR) oversees the implementation of the civil aspects of the Dayton Peace Accords, which were signed in 1995 and ended the war in Bosnia. This office has been directed for almost three decades by a succession of European officials. The current chief of the OHR is Christian Schmidt, a former politician from Germany. Dodik has disagreed with Schmidt since the latter’s arrival in Bosnia in 2021.
For national and international observers, the court’s decision is an interesting turn and announces the uncertainty to come. The arrival of the Dodik as president of Republika Srpska in 2006 inaugurated a period of constant and continuous crises for Bosnia. For a better part of the last two decades, he has worked to take responsibility and responsible impatienton which he currently presides over the institutions at the state of the country.
Compared to his assessment of the progress of Bosnia’s progress, not respecting the decisions of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia, refusing the genocide and launching repeated insults to the Bosnians, the confrontation of Dodik with the OHR may have seemed to have seemed a political offense of lower magnitude. However, sentence, and in particular the ban on his political life for six years, could very well predict the beginning of the political fall of Dodik – or a renewed attempt to push Bosnia to the edge.
In response to the condemnation, the Republika Srpska assembly adopted a document on Wednesday at the end of Wednesday, rejecting the court’s decision and the authority of Schmidt. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, engulfed in his own problems at home in the middle of increasing demonstrations, stole the same day for Banja Luka to meet Dodik. Dodik’s lawyer said he would appeal the decision. Meanwhile, the Republika Srpska Assembly adopted a bill to prevent judicial and police institutions at the level of the State to exercise sovereignty in this part of Bosnia.
What awaits us is more uncertainty. Political stability in Bosnia in the weeks and coming months could hang in balance while the country awaits the call to take place.
As things are now held, Dodik is powerful in Republika Srpska. He controls his party – the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) – and maintains the instruments of power both in Republika Srpska and at the level of the State through his people named in many institutions. Its ability to generate a deeper crisis is real.
On the other hand, he also exceeded his political reception. Dodik has been a must for Bosnian Serbian policy for almost two decades. His domination in politics and the media means that a whole generation currently registered in undergraduate studies has known no other political leader. For many Bosnian citizens, it has become synonymous with bizarre crises, conflicts and rhetoric.
While media reports indicate support for Dodik de Vucic, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Croatian President Zoran Milanovic, the political future of Dodik depends on the way in which Bosnia’s public institutions react as well as the depth of his own support base. In other words, its future depends on what is happening in the field in Bosnia.
For years, Dodik had been able to generate and degenerate crises to extract concessions in exchange for the decline. And then he continued to repeat the pattern. This has led some politicians to Sarajevo and many foreign officials to give in to Dodik for years for stability. As a result, Dodik has accumulated power and resources and has shown constantly increasing arrogance.
A firm position of the institutions of the state of Bosnia to implement decisions and resist Dodik has been expected for a long time. This is new for Dodik and maybe a key test of the distance he is ready to go and the support he really commands.
In the coming weeks and months, three factors are likely to shape the deployment situation and, by extension, of the political future of Dodik: the Bosnian State Court, the Dodik power base and the support of Vucic – or its absence.
If the Appeal Chamber rejects Dodik’s call and reaffirms the sentence – and in particular the political ban – the Bosnian chief will be vulnerable, which will mark another dead end with the Bosnian institutions at the level of the state. The ability and the will of public institutions to enforce such a court decision will be crucial.
However, if the court cancels the decision – in particular due to the potential external pressure that the situation in Bosnia is uncontrollable – Dodik would claim victory and would feel embarrassment.
Second, a weakened dodik will assess his support within his party and among his levers of power. Increasing cracks in its basis of power would be a sign that court decisions undermine its support. However, the legislation adopted by the Bosnian entity of Republika Srpska with the exception of the national police and the judiciary of his territory signals the Bosnian chief still has faithful supporters and a considerable capture on the main institutions of Republika Srpska. Dodik could use this legislation to increase the bet and serve as a negotiation chip. He has already done this before.
Thirdly, as things are currently being held, Vucic’s concern with his own interior manifestations in Serbia means that it can be less disposed and has fewer resources to divert towards tensions in Bosnia.
In addition, as for other long -standing political leaders, the signs of Dodik’s political weakness can encourage the political ambitions of its protégés or close partners to replace it. It would not be surprising that jockeying within its party will happen again.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.