Donald Trump said that there was “no more room” for an agreement with Canada and Mexico this week, launching a trade war against the allies closest to his nation which he presented as an effort to protect the soul of America.
Then he went back. It was not his first feint and his retirement. It will probably not be the last.
One day after having imposed steep prices on the neighbors of his country, the American president announced a month -long stay for car manufacturers. The next day, the prices were also suspended Almost all goods from Canada and Mexico.
Prices on Chinataken at a rate of 10% in February and doubled at 20% Tuesday, remains in place. Trump and his collaborators now follow a new wave of prices in early April as “the big”, with a market of markets – including the European Union – and the industries at their sight.
Each brutal and erratic shock on Washington’s policy has repercussions in the world, with companies in the United States and far beyond trying to follow developments from one day to the next-and to understand what they mean.
The architects of Trumpomy insist that it will open the way to a larger and more prosperous future. But companies find it difficult to distinguish the economic landscape now, not to mention what could happen next.
“When you have such a high level of uncertainty and you have a set of policies that seem to have an impact on each part of the economy … This leads essentially frozen companies,” said Sameera Fazili, former deputy director of the National Economic Council (NEC) under Joe Biden. “They are unable to make investments. They are unable to make plans. They are unable to make job decisions.
“Because they do not know where these policies will go. These policies will have such an impact on their results. »»
During the four months following his electoral victory last November, Trump threatened to impose prices Canada and Mexico in January; threatened to impose prices in Canada and Mexico in February; threatened to impose prices in Canada and Mexico in March; Prices briefly imposed in Canada and Mexico in March; Revived these prices on most goods; And threatened to impose prices in Canada and Mexico in April.
For companies trying to navigate North America – from car manufacturers to juice manufacturers – the world has changed and reassembled, at a dizzying pace in a few days. “I don’t know how they sail,” said Fazili. “You cannot manage a business with cliffs of a month around you all the time.”
“It’s not a moment to celebrate,” said Matthew Holmes, head of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, after Thursday’s last delay. “The economy is not a toy to play with. Constant threats and economic uncertainty have wreaked havoc.
“We see it in delayed commercial investments, the trembling confidence of consumers, the flows of capital in neutral and a volatile stock market. The means of subsistence of people are at stake. ”
As an activist, Trump’s great political competence is his ability to use rhetoric – often impetuous, raw and even false – to fold the perception of reality.
The rhetoric of the president can leave the listeners the impression that prices will revitalize the industrial hearts of America and will fill the chests of the federal government of billions of dollars in other countries, with only a minor impact on American consumers.
“The countries and companies that have denounced us are not particularly satisfied with what I do,” Trump told journalists at the oval office on Thursday. Of course, prices could cause “a little short -term interruption” in the US economyhe conceded, but “I don’t think it’s going to be tall”.
But the reality of the prices is more delicate. The prices are generally paid by importers, to start – in this case, American companies buying goods abroad – not exporters, who sell the products or countries where they are based. Many of these American companies Quickly fast this week that they transmit these higher costs to their customers.
While Trump used the threat of prices to encourage companies abroad to move their factories in the United States, such longer-term investments are more difficult to plan for managers when they do not know which functions will be in place next week.
Seven weeks after his second term, because many Americans struggle with the cost of living after years of higher inflation, Trump continues to blame Joe Biden. “We inherited the last administration an economic disaster and an inflation nightmare,” he said during his spouse in the congress on Tuesday evening.
The American economy is not in a state of disaster, having shown remarkable resilience in the years following the end of the pandemic. The biggest problem was inflation, which reached its highest level in a generation three years ago, but which has since dropped considerably from this peak.
Presidents “generally advance quickly or do not criticize their predecessors by name,” said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “Here is another standard that Trump exploded. Trump has no limit and his base allows it to get away with anything. So expect it to continue. »»
But if prices are increasingly increasing Trump’s decisions – as many economists and business leaders have warned it – it will become more difficult to blame Biden for the challenges of daily affordability.
On the campaign of the campaign last year, Trump repeatedly committed to “quickly” reduce the prices of the “first day” of his second administration. “A vote for Trump means that your grocery products will be cheaper”, it declared On the eve of the November elections.
It was only after having won that he recognized how difficult it would be. “It is difficult to bring things down once they have mounted”, he Said time A few weeks his victory. “You know, it’s very difficult.”
It is one thing to write higher prices and invoices like “a little short -term interruption” when they are a risk. If they become reality, such rhetoric is less likely to wash.
“Once you are responsible, you are in charge,” said Fazili. “And if there is a problem in the economy, people seek you to repair it.”