It’s not a whole gray sky. For the moment, the dark clouds are mainly on retail. (Photo by Justin Sullivan / Getty Images)
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The optimism of small businesses seems weak, but concerns are the most pronounced in retailers.
April 2025 Small businesses optimism index came to 95.8, below the average of 51 years of 98. The index, published monthly by the National Federation of Independent Affairs (NFIB), fell in all sectors followed in the report: construction, manufacturing, retail and services. The latest survey reflects the responses collected during the first two weeks of April and captures the expectations of small businesses for hiring, investment, sales and the wider economy. The overall reading of optimism fell 1.6 percentage points compared to Mars.
The owners of retail companies were the least optimistic, with an index reading of 93.7, according to a additional report Posted by NFIB on May 27. It is 6.4 points below January and the only sector to come below the average long -term average. The retailers also reported the weakest hiring plans, the most inventory complaints and the most widespread disturbances in the supply chain. Many, if not all of these concerns are linked to President Trump’s prices on Chinese products, which were announced on April 2.
Only 10% of retail owners plan to hire, against 13% in all small businesses. According to seventy percent of retailers, the problems of the supply chain affect their business. Fourteen percent say that their stocks are too low, the lowest in all the sector. Even with these opposite winds, a net of 7% expects real sales to increase, which is better than the global prospects of small businesses.
Construction, on the other hand, remains the most confident sector. Its index reading was 100.9, down 3.9 points compared to January, but still the highest of all industries. More than half of the construction companies declare unsuccessful job offers and 20% plan to hire over the next three months. Work remains the main concern of the industry. Almost a third of the owners of the construction said that finding qualified workers was their most urgent problem. This shortage is probably aggravated by the repression of immigration from the Trump administration. Approximately one in three construction workers is a immigrantAnd almost half of the painters and installers of dry partitions were born abroad.
Manufacturing and services have also decreased but remained above the overall long-term average. Manufacturing optimism fell from any industry, lowering 6.8 points. This came despite the Trump administration’s thrust to land production and strengthen the interior supply chains. Despite this, the manufacturers have declared trends in the strongest profits and the best expectations for future sales. In the service sector, job plans have actually increased slightly and the expectations of the economy were the highest second in all groups.
Despite the broader drop in optimism, 69% of all small business owners have evaluated their business health as excellent or good. It was true in each industry. Finance (74%) paved the way. Transport arrived last (only 60%).
The prices can weigh on confidence, but apart from retail, most small businesses still see a way to follow. Although the overall index is down, three of the four major sectors remain more optimistic than the historic trend.
That said, the difficulties of retail are not a Siérole show. When including direct and indirect employment, such as the workers in the supply chain, retail trade employs around 55 million Americans and contributes to 2.2 billions of dollars to the country’s gross domestic product, according to the National Retail Federation. Even if the prices hit the retail retailers for the moment, the training effects could spread quickly. A slowdown in retail hiring, investment and consumer spending could lead to a broader economic moment in the coming months.
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