Over the past three decades, Hicks has seen the Pentagon transform – politically, strategically and technological. She entered the government in the 1990s at the end of the Cold War, when optimism and belief in global cooperation have always dominated the United States foreign policy. But this optimism was dressed up. After September 11, attention moved to the fight against terrorism and non -state actors. Then came the resurgence of Russia and the increased insurance of China. Hicks took two previous breaks in government work – the first to finish a doctorate at MIT and the second to join the Think Tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where she focused on the defense strategy. “As I returned in 2021,” she says, “there was an actor – the RPC (People’s Republic of China) – who had the capacity and the desire to really challenge the international system as it is created.”
In this conversation MIT review of MIT technologyHicks is thinking about how the Pentagon adapts – or not adapting – to a new era of geopolitical competition. It discusses the technological rise of China, the future of AI in war and its signature initiative, a replicator, an initiative of the Pentagon to quickly align thousands of autonomous low -cost systems such as drones.
You have described China as a “talented rapid disciple.“” Do you always believe that, especially given recent developments in AI and other technologies?
Yes I do it. China is the biggest rhythm challenge we face, which means that it gives the pace for most areas of capacity for what we need to be able to defeat them. For example, surface maritime capacity, missile capacity, stealth hunter capacity. They decided to achieve a certain capacity, they tend to get there and they tend to get there even faster.
That said, they have a substantial quantity of corruption, and they were not engaged in a real conflict or a combat operation in the way Western soldiers have trained or were involved, and it is a huge X factor in their effectiveness.
China has made major technological progress, and the old story of its being a follower is broken – not only in commercial technology, but more broadly. Do you think the United States still has a strategic advantage?
I would never want to underestimate their capacities – or any capacity of nation – to innovate in an organic way when they put their minds there. But I always think it’s a useful comparison to look at the American model. Because we are a free spirit system, free people and free markets, we have the potential to generate much more culturally and organically innovation than a model of static. This is our advantage – if we can realize it.
China is ahead of manufacturing, especially with regard to drones and other unmanned systems. What is the size of an American defense problem and can the United States catch up?