National Security of Canada would benefit from participation in the American president Donald Trump “Golden Dome” anti -missile defense plan, according to political experts.
But it will probably take years – if not decades – to fully implement.
“Of course, you want an alliance system where you work together,” said Rob Huebert, professor of political science at the University of Calgary and acting director at the Center for Military Security and Strategic Studies.
“We are a bit of power next to the largest power in the world, and that is part of reality.”
The Prime Minister’s office confirmed on Tuesday That the federal government is intended with the United States of a new economic and security partnership “naturally include the strengthening of NORAD and related initiatives such as the Golden Dome”.
“We are aware that we have a capacity, if we choose thus, to complete the Gilded dome With investments and partnership, and that’s something we look at and something that has been discussed at a high level, “said Prime Minister Mark Carney told journalists on Wednesday.
Trump said that when he was announced to his concept for the estimated system of 175 billion US dollars that “Canada called us and that they want to be part of it,” adding that the country will have to “pay their fair share”.
Carney would not say Wednesday how much money Canada would be willing to spend on the project, that he called one option among many of his government plans to strengthen national defense.
How would a golden dome work?
Despite tensions on trade and defense expenses under the Trump administration, experts say it is natural for Canada to play a role in a new continental anti -missile defense system, given the evolutionary threat environment – in particular in the Arctic.
Golden Dome is envisaged to include soil and space -based capacities, including hundreds of satellites.
These could detect and stop the missiles at the four main stages of a potential attack: detect and destroy them before a launch, intercept them in their first flight stage, stop them halfway in the air or stop them in the last minutes as they go down to a target.
The components deployed to solely make the system much more advanced than Iron Dome, the name used collectively for the multilayer anti -missile defense system of Israel which was developed with American support.
The iron dome system itself specializes in the decrease in short-range rockets. It works next to two other systems: the arrow, which operates outside the atmosphere and intercepts long -range missiles, and David’s Sling, which is intended to intercept the medium -range missiles.
Israel says its anti -missile defense system is more than 90%effective.
Get daily national news
Get the best news of the day, the titles of political, economic and current affairs, delivered in your reception box once a day.
Last year, when Iran attacked Israel with hundreds of ballistic and cruise drones and missiles, the Israeli army said that 99% of these projectiles had been intercepted.
Richard Shimooka, a principal researcher from the Macdonald-Laurier Institute who is studying the defense policy, said the Golden Dome system must have a default rate by a hundred efficient, given the deadliest missiles he will be responsible for intercepting.
“These are orders of magnitude superior to all that Iron Dome seeks to achieve,” he told Global News.
“Israel is a small contiguous country – most of the missiles that strike Israel can travel less than 100 kilometers.”
Shimooka continued: “(for the Golden Dome), we are talking about missiles which, at least, had to reach around 4,000 kilometers, which use suborbital trajectories … They will probably be nuclear missiles, so you cannot simply say ‘` oups” if you miss one, because it means that a city gets up. “
The idea of a space defense system dates back to the “Star Wars” project of former American president Ronald Reagan, who was abandoned in the 1980s due to insufficient technology.
When could it become operational?
Trump said on Tuesday that it expects the system to be “fully operational before the end of my mandate”, which ends in 2029, according to chronology experts, is not realistic.
“I would be surprised if you will see this happening at the end of the next president’s term,” said Shimooka, not only quoting budgetary constraints and pushed cuts by the Republicans in the Congress, but also the complexity of the proposed system.
What is more likely, according to Shimooka and others, is an initial phase of the plan could be in the early stages of years later, the complete system is not operational before the next decade as soon as possible.
How would Canada benefit?
Canada and the United States are already working together via the North American Aerospace Defense Command, or Norad, which can detect and cut down certain missile threats such as cruising missiles.
However, Canada is not part of the American ballistic anti -missile defense system under the Northern Command, which currently has the power to reduce these missiles.
“We are not in the room for some of the discussions that are critical enough for the North American defense,” said Shimooka.
Former Prime Minister Paul Martin announced in 2005 that Canada would not join the American system, which was developed mainly to counter the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Program (ICBM).
During the decades that have followed, experts say that the threat environment has evolved to the point where defense deterrence is necessary.
“The Russians and the Chinese are at our door,” said the retired major-general. Scott Clancy, the former operations director of Norad.
“They use their bombers to approach our airspace, they use their submarines to approach our waters, they leave miles from our coasts and could attack us without warning at a given time.”
The Pentagon has warned for years that the new missiles developed by China and Russia are so advanced that updated countermeasures are necessary.
In 2023, experts told the House of Commons and the Senate Defense Committees that Canada should turn to multi-layer air and anti-missile systems that can intercept the growing variety of threats, drones and missiles launched by submarine with arms deployed in space, hypersonic missiles and ICBM.
“If you can counter these things, it decreases the reality of the strike that happens first by detering it,” said Clancy.
Contrary to what Canada has argued in 2005, it added: “You have to reach a real defensive capacity to achieve deterrence”.
What could Canada contribute?
In March, Carney announced a radar purchase of $ 6 billion in Australia and an expansion of military operations in the Arctic.
The exaggerated radar system is expected to provide early warning radar coverage for Canada and the United States in the Arctic and is part of Norad’s modernization plan of $ 40 billion previously announced.
The update of last year’s defense policy has embarked on an investment in air defense and integrated anti -missile.
These capacities will almost certainly contribute to a golden dome system, experts said.
Trump said he wanted all the new systems deployed in space to be built in the United States
Shimooka said Canada would probably not want to contribute to this effort, given the costs and complexity involved, but could play a role in its operation.
Canadian investment in the Golden Dome could help Canada reach NATO’s goal to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense, which Carney aims to reach by 2030.
“It has the sense of geo-strategically, it makes sense financially, it makes sense for us as a secure and stable ally in the Western world,” said Clancy.
– With Global Touria Izri and Associated Press files