Political prospects
During the coming month, several major central banks are about to announce monetary policy decisions, many of which are faced with a delicate balancing – managing persistent inflationary pressures while sailing in the uncertainties of American tariff policies.
The American Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan should largely maintain stable interest rates. In the meantime, the Reserve bank of India (RBI) and the European Central Bank (ECB) can consider rate drops to stimulate growth in stable inflation.
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The American federal reserve should hold stable rates because it weighs the potential economic benefits of prices against inflationary risks. The Bank of England, having softened the rates in May to respond to growth problems and softening inflation, can stabilize now, but could resume relaxation by August. The Bank of Japan should stop in June to assess the uncertainties linked to the prices, but could start the rate increases later as inflation pressure is built.
Commercial truce
After exchanging steep reciprocal prices, the United States and China agreed with a 90-day break in their pricing war, including reduced prices during this period. The truce, suffering from high -level talks in Switzerland, marks a significant de -escalation after the American prices on Chinese imports culminated at 145% and that China prices on American products reached 125%.
Currently, American prices on Chinese products average around 30%, while China prices on American products are 10%. Before the agreement, China experienced a sharp drop in exports to the United States in April, in parallel with a significant increase in expeditions to the countries of the Anase, suggesting efforts to bypass American prices.
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Although the terms of any final agreement remain uncertain, this temporary truce has attenuated global tensions, the ranges reducing the probability of an American recession.
Post-Brexit Pact
Five years after officially leaving the European Union, the United Kingdom and the EU revealed their first major post-Brexit agreement, signaling strategic reset in their complex relationship.
Unveiled at a London summit led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the agreement covers trade, defense, energy, migration and mobility of young people, aimed at improving cooperation and facilitated tensions. The commercial relationship between the United Kingdom and the EU has undergone significant changes from Brexit. While the EU remains a key trading partner, representing around 41% of British exports and 51% of imports in 2024, the United Kingdom diversified its commercial portfolio, the EU countries now receiving 59% of its exports.
Nevertheless, British exports to the EU and non-UE markets have greatly decreased from Brexit, stressing the urgency of concluding trade agreements with the EU and other partners such as India.
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However, from Brexit, exports from the United Kingdom to the EU and non-EU have decreased sharply, pressing the need to conclude trade agreements with the EU and other countries such as India.
Liaison rout
The global bond market is faced with a high sale, driven by a wave of tax concerns and a loss of confidence in long -term public debt.
Moody’s demotion of American credit prospects and renewed fears about the deficiency of deficits – specialized by the tax plans of Donald Trump – has triggered a broad revaluation of risks. Investors are not only emerging from American treasury bills, but also long -term bonds in major economies like Japan and Germany.
Yields on US 30-year-old bonds have increased beyond 5% recently, while Japanese and German yields have also jumped. Structural changes, such as the reduction in demand from Japanese insurers and the more loose fiscal policy in Europe, aggravates the pressure.
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Investors now promote shorter bonds, considering them as safe in uncertain times. Meanwhile, emerging markets such as India and China challenge the trend, sliding yields, thanks to interior stability and stricter capital controls.
Listing
The Chinese battery giant Catl made its striking debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising $ 4.6 billion in the largest world list this year. The shares jumped more than 16% compared to its registration price of $ 263 HK on the first day, highlighting a high demand for investors for the best manufacturer of battery in the world in electric vehicle, which provides major car manufacturers such as Tesla, BMW and Volkswagen.
Containing a share of almost 38% of the world market for EV batteries, CATL plans to use the product to accelerate its expansion in Europe. However, already listed in Shenzhen, Catl has prevented itself in the climbing of American-Chinese tensions. The Pentagon has appointed CATL as a Chinese office linked to the military, and American legislators put pressure on the banks of Wall Street to avoid registration, which led CATL to completely exclude onshore investors.
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This decision marks an era when Chinese giants like Alibaba prospered Wall Street when they started. The Catl Hong Kong list reflects an evolving financial landscape, the continent’s companies turning more and more towards Hong Kong for capital in the midst of the American regulatory examination.