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Roula Khalaf, editor-in-chief of the FT, selects her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.
The writer is editorial director and columnist at Le Monde
Marine Le Pen wore black during the no-confidence vote against the French government last Wednesday, as if she were dressed for the funeral of a system she claims to respect but works tirelessly to undermine. Meanwhile, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing party La France Insoumise, watched from the visitors’ gallery of the National Assembly as the deputies’ vote began. Satisfied that his troops had obeyed his instructions, he left before the final count was made.
This is how the far right and the far left joined forces to bring down the centrist government of Michel Barnier after a little over three months, plunging France into the unknown. This is a new stage in the crisis opened by the early legislative elections last summer, which failed to achieve a majority. The crisis is now so deep that President Emmanuel Macron had to insist Thursday evening, in a harsh televised speech, that he would not resign.
Is this the twilight of the Fifth Republic? Founded by General de Gaulle with a tailor-made constitution in 1958, it was designed to bring stability after decades of chaotic parliamentary rule, by striking a balance between Parliament, on the one hand, and a head of state endowed with extensive powers, on the other. The system became more presidential after a referendum in 1962 led to the head of state being elected by popular vote rather than by an electoral college. Unfortunately, this carefully crafted arrangement no longer appears to be working.
Jean-Louis Bourlanges, an experienced centrist politician and keen observer of political history who left Parliament last summer, believes that we are entering a new phase of this institutional balance. For a long time, the presidential and parliamentary majorities were aligned, allowing an orderly alternation between left and right. The cohabitation era began in the late 1980s, when elections produced opposing majorities for president and parliament. Presidents François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac managed this arrangement with some success, governing with prime ministers from opposing parties.
Cohabitation worked because it was driven by the major parties – Chirac’s center-right Union for a Popular Movement and Mitterrand’s Socialists – who shared the same vision of the political system. But both parties collapsed as Macron bulldozed his way onto the political scene and won his first term as president in 2017. Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National thrived amid the ruins of the dominant party system. Mélenchon chose the radical path.
Macron defeated Le Pen to win a second term in April 2022, but saw his majority shrink and a large number of RN deputies enter parliament after the legislative elections that followed. Bourlanges believes that this is when Macron should have given more latitude to Parliament and the Prime Minister, thus rebalancing relations between the Elysée and the legislative power.
At the same time, the demographic and cultural fabric of French society has changed. Issues that were barely perceived at the birth of the Fifth Republic – such as immigration, globalization and European integration – have changed the political landscape. And across Europe, new movements have challenged the liberal democratic consensus.
The result was the tripartite parliament that emerged from this summer’s elections, with three roughly equal blocs – left, center and far right – and no majority. These blocs, two of which challenge the pillars of the existing settlement, hate each other and seem incapable of cooperating except to bring down the government. All of this points to a dysfunctional system.
This is why forcing Macron to resign would probably not solve anything. Since the constitution does not allow new legislative elections to be held before July next year, a new president would still not have a parliamentary majority to govern. Here is another flaw in the system: despite the loud proclamations that the early elections would have seen power shift from the Elysée Palace to the Palais Bourbon where the National Assembly sits, too many prominent political leaders – left, right and the center – are actually led by their desire to compete in the next presidential election in 2027. This is already very crowded territory.
However, few experts believe that the time has come to bury the Fifth Republic. The Constitution, they argue, provides flexibility. As for Macron, he is betting that the formidable spirit of unity and cooperation that allowed Notre-Dame to rise from its ashes could still inspire politicians – and make Le Pen’s choice of mourning attire seem premature .