Great Britain is confronted with “a new era of threat” with drones, artificial intelligence and other technologies modifying the nature of the war more fundamentally than, at any other moment in history, the government’s strategic journal of the defense of the government should conclude on Monday.
The 130 -page document written by three advisers to the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, will warn of the “immediate and urgent” danger posed by Russia and should try to learn from the war in Ukraine.
But he will also focus on China, not described as an enemy but as a “sophisticated and persistent challenge”, which has sometimes been willing to cooperate with Moscow, and two smaller “regional disruptors” – Iran and North Korea.
He will weigh a table of the most increased military and security threat since the end of the Cold War, although it is unable to say that the intensity of Cyber and Moscow Sabotage activities means that the United Kingdom has already derived in a war with Russia.
The analysis, carried out by a team led by the former NATO secretary general, George Robertson, should not define new commitments for defense expenses. Instead, he will reiterate a commitment made by Starmer in February to increase the defense budget at 2.5% of GDP by 2027 and 3% in the following parliament.
But it is likely to be used to help justify a significant expansion of medium -term defense expenses which should be agreed at the NATO summit later in June which could represent more than 50 billion pounds sterling in real terms.
The members of the Western Alliance discuss a proposal to increase basic defense expenses to 3.5% of GDP by 2032, with an additional 1.5% for Cyber and Infrastructure initiatives, in response to Donald Trump pressure.
This week, Mark Rutte, NATO secretary general, said that he expected the June summit in The Hague would see allies of agreement on “a high defense expenditure objective” of 5% in total, including a figure “considerably in the north of 3%” for pure defense expenses.
The exam should also refer to the question of the size of the British army, in the midst of the reports that the Ministry of Defense And the treasure fought to include the opportunity to include a commitment to increase the number of 73,000 objectives.
The figures this week show that the army size fell below the target at the lowest level since the Napoleonic era and earlier, with the number of soldiers formed full time at 70,860 on April 1, down 2.3% compared to the previous year.
A military source said that defense secretary John Healey, a persistent critic of the army size of the army in opposition, had made a commitment to increase the army by a few thousand, but the Ministry of Defense said that he had not recognized speculation.
A commitment to increase army figures by 5,000, if the recruitment can be achieved, would cost around 2.5 billion pounds sterling per year of additional salary, accommodation, kit and other resources. But in the event of success, this would help the military to respond to what is likely to grow commitments abroad in the years to come.
Great Britain and France have agreed to direct a multinational “comfort force” of up to 30,000 to help maintain peace in Ukraine and keep its air ports and sea ports if Russia is part of a lasting ceasefire, although so far, Vladimir Putin has not wanted to do so, despite Trump’s calls.
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Peter Ricketts, a former national security advisor, said that even if it would be logical that the mod spending more for drones, cyber capacities and artificial intelligence, “another Ukraine lesson is that the number of mass, in terms of labor and equipment” – and that the resources of 3.5% of GDP would ultimately be necessary.
An additional 1.5 billion pounds must be allocated by the MOD to improve military accommodation, including urgent upgrades for the 1000 worst houses, while it will be planned to create a voluntary housekeeper to protect airports and other sensitive sites from drones or other unexpected attacks by hostile states and terrorists.
The other members of the examination committee were the retired general Sir Richard Barron and Fiona Hill, a former adviser in Russia by Donald Trump, who previously declared that the Second Structural World War has already started because international behavior standards had been eroded by Russia in Ukraine and fighting in the Middle East.
Lord Robertson, president of the panel, previously described Russia, China, North Korea and Iran as a “Mortal quartet” who worked more and more together. Iran has become a drone supplier in Russia while China provides components for weapons – and North Korea has sent troops to fight Ukraine.
Starmer should unveil the outline review during an event on Monday before Healey threw the full document in front of Parliament.