SMU or Alabama?
This is the College Football Playoffs The committee’s big dilemma before Sunday’s final ranking. The Mustangs fought back against Clemson to tie the game with less than 30 seconds remaining. before losing 34-31 against the Tigers on a 56-yard field goal with no time remaining.
The loss drops SMU to 11-2 and the Mustangs will assuredly fall from 8th place in the standings. But will they be eliminated from the playoffs?
Alabama edged out Miami for the final spot in the provisional playoff field on Tuesday despite going 9-3 to Miami’s 10-2 record. The Hurricanes lost two of their last three games and finished the regular season with a loss at Syracuse.
It’s easy to see how Alabama could leapfrog a two-loss SMU in the same conference given what happened less than a week ago. But we are not sure that the committee wants to open this Pandora’s box. Committee Chairman Warde Manuel left open the possibility of SMU falling below Alabama on Tuesday night, but also made clear that it was far from a guarantee.
“Whether they give up if they lose, I’m not sure,” Manuel said. “What we’re going to do is evaluate them in their performance, again, watching the game, having a high regard for the teams that are playing. There are 18 teams playing this weekend and we We’ll all be watching and evaluating the results of these games, and we’ll see how they move, if they move at all. As I mentioned in the ESPN interview, two years ago, TCU lost and stayed n. °3 that year, so these things can happen. People can lose and maybe stay where they are. They can evolve like we did in other years and go down sharply or just a little.
We don’t think Clemson’s win was convincing enough to eliminate SMU from the playoffs entirely. Here’s our final prediction for what the playoff field will look like when it’s announced Sunday at noon ET on ESPN.
First round exclusions
1. Oregon (13-0, Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia (11-2, SEC champion)
3. Boise State (12-1, Mountain West champion)
4. Arizona State (11-2, Big 12 champion)
These four teams seem pretty simple. Boise State started the weekend five places ahead of Arizona State and beat UNLV by 14 in MWC title game. Arizona State dominates Iowa State in the Big 12 title game and was two spots ahead of Clemson in Tuesday’s rankings. Clemson didn’t do enough to earn a first-round bye and Boise State should stay ahead of Arizona State.
First round matches
No. 12 SMU (11-2, overall) at No. 5 Texas (11-2, overall)
No. 11 Clemson (10-3, ACC champion) at No. 6 Penn State (11-2, overall)
No. 10 Indiana (11-1, overall) at No. 7 Notre Dame (11-1, overall)
No. 9 Tennessee (10-2, overall) at No. 8 Ohio State (10-2, overall)
This is where things get really, really interesting. We have SMU with the final playoff spot against Alabama and the Mustangs one spot below Clemson due to Saturday night’s head-to-head loss. It would be strange if the committee had both Clemson and SMU on the field and the Mustangs were ahead of the Tigers.
However, we don’t know if the head-to-head results will apply elsewhere among the first round matches. Texas and Penn State are set to host first-round games after their conference title game losses on Saturday. And we think the committee will keep them ahead of Notre Dame because both of those losses came by one score. Texas was No. 2 in Tuesday’s rankings ahead of No. 3 Penn State and No. 4 Notre Dame.
With the exclusion of the top four conference champions, that would drop those three teams to Nos. 5-7 in the playoffs and leave Ohio State at No. 8. Yes, the Buckeyes beat Penn State in the regular season. But can the committee drop Penn State below Ohio State without doing the same to Texas?
Placing Notre Dame at No. 7 behind Texas and Penn State also allows the committee to avoid a rematch or matchup between teams from the same conference in a first-round matchup. Indiana appears locked in at No. 10 and could face the Fighting Irish instead of Penn State or return to Ohio State.