The alleged leader of liberal leaders Mark Carney faces a major test on Monday in Montreal, when he and his rivals compete in person for the first time in a debate in French.
Carney is new in federal policy and its performance will be under the microscope. He will have to prove to the liberals that he can think standing in French – and as he has the most to lose, he should spend most of his time in defense.
“Especially after his inaugural speech in Edmonton, some people criticized his French, saying that it was not so good. He speaks French, there is no doubt, but I think it will be a test for him, “said Daniel Béland, professor of political science and director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada.
“People will listen to very carefully, especially people in Quebec or French speakers, not only what he says, but to what extent he says.”
Béland said Carney’s performance on Monday should indicate how it could occur in a French debate against the conservative leader Pierre Hairyvre and the leader of the Bloc Québécois Yves-François Blanchet, both solid debaters.
The rival candidate Chrystia Freeland, an experienced debtor who seems to have been late in the race, will try to stage a return.
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“It is potentially an opportunity for her to put gas and energy back in her campaign, and perhaps for members of the Liberal Party to remember why they have loved it so many years,” said Declared the Liberal strategist Carlene Variyan of Summa strategies.
Carney is currently leading in the mentions, polls and fundraising, and it is the subject of frequent attacks on hairy and its caucus – but that does not mean that it has the leadership sewn.
“Everything can happen because it’s a campaign,” said Variyan. “I would not be ready to exclude anything, in particular because of the unpredictable and erratic nature of the decisions which come from the south of the border and (American president) Donald Trump.”
The former head of the Government Chamber Karina Gould and the former MP of Montreal Frank Baylis will also take the scene to go to the liberal base.
Variyan said that she was looking at Gould because she could have the most to gain a solid debate performance.
“It was a force in this race that I do not think that many political observers might have predicted at first,” she said.
“What would be very interesting now would be to see if the race for the second becomes really competitive between Gould and Freeland. For me, this is the big story of this leadership campaign – which is Karina Gould and what she will do at the end. »»
A debate in English is scheduled for Tuesday in Montreal.
Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Toronto, said that if the debates alone are not often important to determine the result of leadership breeds, they can sometimes offer moments of political makeup.
Although the performance of Kamala Harris’s pointed debate against Trump did not help him with US polls last year, Jack Layton’s performance in the federal French debate in 2011 contributed to the NPD to the official status of the ‘ opposition, said Wiseman.
The other Joker, he said, is the state of the candidates’ exit machines, which is difficult to assess before the end of the vote.
“We may always have surprises, and it is because of the method that the liberals use to select the leader,” said Wiseman.
Each district is worth 100 points in the race – which means constituencies where the liberals generally make superb places to vote. Freeland has spent time in rural areas that roam dairy producers and in rural regions of Alberta and elsewhere by rallying the Ukrainians.
“She plays very intelligent to do so,” said Wiseman, pointing to the 2004 conservative leadership race won by Stephen Harper. “Belinda Stronach arrived second, ahead of Tony Clement. How did she come to second? She swept all these constituencies from Quebec. »»
Wednesday, immediately after the debates, the vote in advance opens for the members of the party. The winner will be appointed on March 9.
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