Likewise, it is possible to calculate the impact of emissions during a limited number of years. For example, Callahan and Mankin note that the internal research of oil companies suggested that climate change would be a problem around 1980 and calculated the impact of the emissions that occurred after people knew they were a problem. Thus, the approach is extremely flexible.
From there, researchers could use empirical information that connects high temperatures to economic damage. “Recent work evaluated by peers has used econometrics to deduce causal relationships between climatic risks and results such as loss of income, reduction in agricultural yields, increased human mortality and depressed economic growth,” write Callahan and Mankin. These measures can be used to estimate the cost of things such as floods, harvest losses and other economic damage. Alternatively, researchers could analyze the impact on individual climatic events where financial costs have been calculated separately.
Massive damage
To implement their method, researchers carry out many individual models, collectively providing the most likely costs and the probable range around them. First, they translate the emissions of each company by the impact on average average surface temperature. This is translated as an impact on extreme temperatures, producing an estimate of what the days would look like with the five most extreme temperatures. This, in turn, is translated by economic damage associated with extreme heat.
Callahan and Malkin use chevron as an example. By 2020, Chevron’s emissions were responsible for 0.025 ° C of warming that year. If you carry out a similar analysis for the ears between 1991 and 2020, the researchers come from a range of damage which amounts to a hollow of about $ 800 billion up to $ 3.6 billions of dollars. Most of the damage affected the nations in the tropics.
Continuing through the five companies that have led to most carbon emissions, they calculate that Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, Chevron and Exxon Mobile have all produced damages of approximately 2 billions of dollars. BP lifts the rear, with “just” 1.45 billion of dollars of damage. For the full list of 111 carbon majors, Callahan and Mankin grant the total of damages to approximately 28 billions of dollars.