With wins over the New York Islanders and Nashville Predators, confidence was high heading into Game 3 at home, but the Washington Capitals are a much better team than these two.
Montreal lost, but they showed they could compete with anyone. The Capitals scored three goals in the third to come back to win 4-2. Washington has won nine straight on the road.
Wild horses
The supposed best lineup of an NHL line is a forechecker, a passer, and a scorer. Each row must also have a game driver. A row must be at least a certain size. However, when you look at Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Alex Newhook, they don’t follow the formula very well.
The line has no known forward verifier. It doesn’t really have a size either. Suzuki passes and shoots well. Caufield is a scorer. We’re all still trying to figure out what Newhook really is.
They’re breaking line composition rules, yet they’re the best trio head coach Martin St. Louis has put together this season. Suzuki and Caufield were tempted with several shots and their shot share was 35 percent. They were separated, but Suzuki was only 50 percent successful with anyone.
Suddenly these three have it all figured out so far. In the first two home games, the line had an 80 expected goals share. Overall, they have the best numbers on the team with a 60 share.
In the first period, they got the Canadians off to a good start with two goals. Newhook got the Canadian on the board with his sixth, then Caufield followed with his 17th.
Lane Hutson collected an assist on the first goal to score for his sixth consecutive game. That ties the Canadiens’ rookie record for defensemen, tying Chris Chelios. It’s a special company. Hutson is a special player.
Hutson is unlikely to beat the rookie against Matvei Michkov or Macklin Celebrini, but it’s possible if he continues this trend. Currently, Michkov and Celebrini are the favorites.
Hutson is as exciting as anyone. He was swinging behind the net, mesmerizing the Capitals. He made a three-zone saucer pass. He seems more and more comfortable defensively. He records the team’s highest or second-highest ice time in every game. This is all spectacular. That’s mind-blowing for a 62nd overall pick in a rookie season.
The quality of shooting that the Canadians produced while seeking victory was exceptional. Montreal had three escapes, but could not count against Logan Thompson. Jayden Struble, Josh Anderson and Nick Suzuki all had a breakaway from the blue line, but couldn’t score. Brendan Gallagher was also alone at 10 feet.
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It was a loss, but the gains for the team are obvious.
Wild goats
It was an exciting game where the Canadiens played some of their best hockey. In the second period, they made four consecutive appearances with enormous pressure and managed to keep the lines rolling. However, one small problem to address besides the obvious that they don’t have the experience to know how to turn leads into wins.
Juraj Slafkovsky needs to be more precise with his shooting. In the last two games, he has had six exceptional looks. Five of the looks were from within 20 feet and one was from 30 feet, but Slafkovsky barely made the goaltender work.
On five attempts, Slafkovsky completely missed the net. In one attempt, he hit Logan Thompson under the arm near the ridge. Slafkovsky simply doesn’t have enough control over the direction of his shot, or he’s trying to be too precise.
The obvious advantage here is that Slavkovsky has six quality looks in two games. It’s a huge amount. This is an indicator that it is very difficult for Slafkovsky to create a ton of ice for himself.
Usually the quality of what he was able to create for himself would mean a goal or two for a player. If you’re looking for why Slafkovsky only has two goals this season, you need to look no further than he is spraying his shots.
Wilde Cards
The Montreal Canadiens’ biggest weakness right now is the same as last season. In 2023-24, the Canadiens were 31st out of 32 in second-line goals scored. Only the San Jose Sharks were worse than Montreal overall.
This season, the Sharks have come alive on the second line. They suddenly find themselves in the first third of the league thanks to the good work of management and the arrival of Macklin Celebrini and Tyler Toffoli to propel the first line.
On the top line, it’s notable that Nick Suzuki has the toughest matchups in the league, but somehow he’s a plus player this year in plus-minus. The first line is not at all the question of Canadians. They score goals. They face the best in the league.
However, Montreal is absolutely terrible in scoring on the second line while the Canadiens are ranked 32nd out of 32 teams. Entering the game against the Capitals on Saturday, Montreal had five goals on two from Patrik Laine, two from Juraj Slafkovsky and one from Kirby Dach.
It might be unfair to say that Laine’s total shouldn’t count, but he’s actually the leading scorer on the line. If we insert Alex Newhook on the second line, the total increases to eight. Unfortunately, eight remains the second worst performing trio in the league. Anaheim and Nashville have nine goals.
For comparison, Tampa Bay leads the league with 29 goals scored on its second line. They are followed by Toronto with 28 goals, Vegas and Dallas with 27 goals, New Jersey with 26 and Florida with 25.
It’s already an astonishing goal difference this season. Prorated, that would represent a gap of 80 goals. Last season, the gap between the Canadiens and the best total in the league was 60 goals. Winning in hockey is absolutely impossible with 25 goals on the second line. They are much worse than last year.
Kirby Dach is the league’s worst minus-21 this season. He has a goal. The play driver of a line is generally the center who is responsible for moving the puck up the ice after defending the high slot well to gain possession. Dach must move to the third line to succeed this season.
Laine and Slafkovsky need a puck shooter. They are not play drivers. If Montreal is to succeed this season, it would appear that a second-line center is needed to make it all come together.
Another school of thought is to simply let this season die on the vine and acquire that top center through the draft. However, management didn’t acquire Laine to settle for that philosophy. They were hoping Dach would return from a major knee reconstruction to lead a line, but they didn’t get that miracle.
The prediction here is that the Canadiens will be watching the events in December, and if they come back from four points to get even closer to a playoff spot and have a .500 record this season, they will press the trigger a January trade that won’t hurt their long-term future.
They need a top-six center. Acquiring one does not send Dach to the minors, nor does it abandon him. It just gives him more time with less pressure and easier matchups to get back into shape. At the same time, everyone benefits from a much better player in that central zone with Laine and Slafkovsky.
If the Canadiens remain at the bottom of the standings in the new year, they should expect another uncompensated free agent sale at the trade deadline to acquire a high draft pick. Their play next month will decide that.