Another exciting championship week in college football has passed, which means it’s time for one last College Football Playoff projection before the very first 12-team bracket is released on Sunday. Let’s start at the top.
Oregon has been the No. 1 team in the College Football Playoff rankings since the very beginning, and the Ducks will enter the CFP in that exact spot. The Ducks will be the top seed after beating Penn State 45-37 for the Big Ten championship on Saturday. Oregon is the only undefeated team in college football, so it’s an easy decision for the committee. The Ducks will play their quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl.
No. 5 Georgia beat second-ranked Texas 22-19 in overtime for the SEC championship in Atlanta in an epic battle that saw the Bulldogs change quarterbacks after starter Carson Beck was injured just before halftime. Beck returned to score the final play of the game after his replacement, Gunner Stockton, was injured during the overtime period.
The Bulldogs are projected to be seeded second and take home the No. 2 spot in the CFP. They will play their first game at the Sugar Bowl.
Texas should not suffer too much after this defeat, however. I expect the Longhorns to stay ahead of Notre Dame for fifth place in the standings and secure the fifth seed. Typically, teams that lose competitive conference championship games to lower-ranked teams don’t suffer too much when the final rankings are released, but the Longhorns lost as the top-ranked team. Georgia will surpass them, of course, but there’s no real reason for Texas to lag behind the other teams below them.
Penn State is projected to be ranked No. 4 and set up a first-round game as a No. 6 seed after the loss to Oregon. The Nittany Lions only lost a spot because Georgia moved ahead of them.
Notre Dame will still be the first of the inactive teams this weekend. CFP committee chairman Warde Manual said this week that teams not playing would be ranked in the same order among themselves as last week in the final rankings released on Sunday. He also noted that these teams could see their rankings change as the teams that played move up the rankings. This is how the committee has always operated, but this is the first time a committee chair has said it out loud.
Quarter-finals
|
January 1 |
Rose bowl |
(1) Oregon vs. (8/9) Winner |
|
January 1 |
Sugar |
(2) Georgia against (7/10) Winner |
|
January 1 |
Bowl of peaches |
(4) Arizona State vs. (5/12) Winner |
|
December 31 |
Fiesta Bowl |
(3) Boise State vs. (6/11) Winner |
First round
|
December 20 or 21 |
Darrell K Royal Memorial Stadium |
(5) Texas vs. (12) Clemson | (4) State of Arizona |
|
December 20 or 21 |
Ohio Stadium |
(8) Ohio State vs. (9) Tennessee | (1) Oregon |
|
December 20 or 21 |
Beaver Stadium |
(6) Penn State vs. (11) Alabama | (3) Boise State |
|
December 20 or 21 |
Notre Dame Stadium |
(7) Notre Dame vs. (10) Indiana | (2) Georgia |
Much to the dismay of ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips, No. 8 SMU is expected to drop out of the CFP field after a heartbreaking 34-31 last-second loss to Clemson in the ACC championship game. The Tigers may or may not leapfrog SMU in the rankings, but I predict they will. But that doesn’t really matter; Either way, the Mustangs are moving down below Alabama, and that’s all it takes to keep them out.
Clemson’s win is a boon for Arizona State, which will now get the fourth bye and top seed as the fourth-highest ranked conference champion. The Tigers now assume that fifth automatic qualifying spot and will be the 12th seed in the CFP. I predict the Sun Devils to finish in the top 12, but all that matters is that they finish ahead of Clemson.
The third conference champion to get a bye is Boise State. The Broncos capped a 12-1 season with a 21-7 victory over No. 20 UNLV in the Mountain West championship game, which gave Boise State a home-and-home sweep over the Rebels. I predict the Broncos will overtake Indiana for 8th place in the rankings after Ohio State and Tennessee due to the quality of their wins. Boise State had both ranked victories against UNLV as well as two other wins against teams with at least eight wins.
When the Broncos played Oregon, the best team in that field, the game ended with Boise State down three points. None of these qualities apply to Indiana, although the Hoosiers still have the second-best average margin of victory in the country, just 0.03 points per game behind Ohio State. Note that Boise State overtaking Indiana doesn’t change either team’s CFP seed from last week because the Broncos get a bye.
The rest of the playoff field is filled with the Hoosiers and Alabama at the 10th and 11th seeds.
Can’t see your team? Check Jerry Palm’s Full Bowl Screenings.