In some ways, 2023 was the worst year ever for United Launch Alliance.
Born from the merger of BoeingIt is (NYSE:BA) And Lockheed-MartinIt is (NYSE:LMT) Competing rocket companies in late 2006, United Launch Alliance (ULA) quickly moved to dominate the rocket industry. space launch in the United Stateslaunching a record 16 launches in 2009. But just a year later, SpaceX arrived on the scene with its Falcon 9 transforming rocket.
In 2015, Falcon 9 was competing with ULA for lucrative U.S. national security missions, and when the Falcon 9 version became reusable, reducing its cost per launch, SpaceX quickly stole ULA’s role as prime launcher. -American rockets. Worse, while ULA was in the process of phasing out its Atlas V and Delta IV rockets in favor of a replacement rocket called “Vulcan,” ULA’s launch rate was destined to drop even further.
Fast forward to 2023, and Boeing’s joint venture with Lockheed has only launched three times.
It’s hard to keep a good rocket company on the sidelines, though, and by 2024, ULA was already laying the groundwork for its comeback. Four years late, delayed by problems at Blue Origin preparing the engine, by its own development problems and by COVID, ULA’s Vulcan Centaur rocket has finally made its first launch in early 2024. It took several months to prepare for its second launch, which took place in October, and was supposed to qualify the rocket to execute national security missions like Falcon 9, and like Atlas V and Delta IV before it.
But there was a problem.
Although the Vulcan rocket in itself successfully launched and orbited its payload, one of the solid rocket boosters attached The Vulcan rocket experienced an anomaly when its booster nozzle fell mid-flight. And certainly, the company that built this booster was not called Boeing or Lockheed. It was actually Northrop Grumman(NYSE:CNP). Still, the Northrop booster is an important part of the entire Vulcan launch system, and it did not perform as expected.
As I noted in October, the Federal Aviation Administration didn’t seem too upset by the anomaly, stating that “no investigation is warranted at this time.” But for many other space observers, rocket parts falling from a mid-flight Boeing rocket raised troubling associations with other Boeing accidents in recent memory.
Yes, I’m talking about the door plug that came off the Boeing plane.
And it seems the FAA has doubts. Two months after Vulcan’s second launch, the FAA has still not officially approved Vulcan for another flight. The Air Force also has not certified Vulcan to perform national security missions.
But it could happen soon.
By interviewing ULA CEO Tory Bruno earlier this month, Breaking Defense was able to determine that ULA was expecting official certification for Vulcan “this month, next month (or within) “. Importantly, Bruno noted that the FAA would not require ULA to conduct additional testing or conduct additional test flights of Vulcan before granting certification, suggesting that, at least from the point of view of From the CEO’s perspective, certification is basically in the bag.
And not too soon.
In 2025, Boeing hopes to be authorized to launch two US national security missions on Vulcan – but it needs certification before it can do so. In total, ULA plans to launch 20 times this coming year, breaking ULA’s previous record for most launches in a year.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nor will production capacity prevent ULA from achieving this pace. ULA has 16 Vulcan rockets in inventory, Bruno says, and Blue Origin is building engines fast enough to maintain a launch rate of 26 Vulcan launches every year.
ULA targets 20 to 30 launches per year, and it expects about half of those launches to go to the government and half to the commercial sector. Bruno notes that this is a “healthier” ratio than when he joined ULA in 2014, when he says “less than a quarter” of ULA’s launches were commercial. This could make ULA unstoppable, even with competition from SpaceX.
But is 50% a realistic number? I checked. In 2013, exactly 0% of ULA’s launches were commercial. In 2014, only one in 14 launches — 7% — were commercial, suggesting that Bruno’s 50% commercial target may be a little ambitious.
That being said, the company do have an agreement to launch 47 rockets for Amazon.com(NASDAQ:AMZN)putting Kuiper Internet satellites into orbit. This contract alone would represent three to four years of Bruno’s commercial launch goal of 50% of 30 per year.
It should guarantee the ULA at least three good years, once military certification is obtained. It remains to be seen whether ULA will be able to maintain this pace after the end of the Amazon contract. Not all companies face as much time pressure as Amazon, with a mid-2026 deadline for launching half of its satellites imposed by the FCC for fear of risking losing its license. Not all companies will pay more for Vulcan launches while SpaceX’s Falcon 9 will cost less.
But Amazon’s business should at least last long enough to give ULA a good start.
And 2025 is When everything will begin.
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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Rich Smith has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool posts and recommends Amazon. The Motley Fool recommends Lockheed Martin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
