Justin Trudeau often seemed most comfortable playing the role of the underdog and exceeding expectations.
Throughout his career, he was considered a lightweight, first by members of his own party, then by a conservative regime that mocked his eligibility to lead the country, and by his critics of the opposition since then.
His greatest electoral success – taking the Liberals from third place to a majority government in 2015 – is emblematic. His detractors said he was “just not ready,” made cracks at his hair or gaudy socks, and watched in disbelief as Canadians disagreed.
After that election, there was a sense that Trudeau and his closest aides had mastered the Canadian zeitgeist, that he was a leader who was not isolated from the public but happy to mingle with the crowd.
This victory led to some landmark policies of the Trudeau era, including carbon pricing, the legalization of marijuana and medical assistance in dying, increased aid for families with children, and radical reform of the health system. national security of Canada. But it also sowed the seeds of scandals to come: the SNC-Lavalin affair, the repeated ethics violations, the revelations that he repeatedly wore blackface, the allegations that he overlooked concerns about foreign interference and his government’s management of the economy.
During the 2019 and 2021 elections, conservative politicians and pundits were optimistic about their chances of unseating Trudeau. Like Stephen Harper before him, many opposition supporters simply could not understand the prime minister’s call.
In both elections, Trudeau overcame significant challenges – in the first case, he overcame multiple scandals and in the second, he scored a victory after trailing during the first weeks of the campaign – to bring back the Liberals in Ottawa with minority mandates.
But being chronically underestimated and still winning seems to have side effects.
At times during his tenure, Trudeau appeared arrogant, brash and stubborn. Sometimes he seemed so sure of the fundamental rightness of his positions and felt no need to convince anyone.
Trudeau could be flippant, dismissive and slow to respond to people’s very real concerns if he didn’t share them. The empathy that Trudeau can exude during the election campaign was not always manifested when he governed.
As Canadians’ priorities changed, Trudeau didn’t seem to take note, or reacted only belatedly – think of the “affordability” measures announced in late 2024 after Canadians struggled for months. In recent years, he and his small circle of trusted advisers have seemed increasingly isolated, not only from the Liberal caucus but also from the public.
The 2015 election was decided in part on big things: climate change, tackling systemic inequality, and making big investments while running deficits.
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Of course, these things are still important in 2024. But polls show that Canadians are now more concerned about affording housing and food. It’s harder to convince people to focus on the bigger picture; hundreds of thousands of people struggle to keep the lights on.
This partly explains the increasingly panicked groans from the Liberal caucus over the past two years. Backbenchers – many of whom owed their electoral victories in large part to Trudeau – were getting a sympathetic ear at their door. The priorities of Trudeau and his inner circle of advisors did not align with voters’ concerns, such as the cost of living.
When Canadians were hit by soaring inflation, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre stressed the risks for months. Trudeau and his team still managed to appear caught off guard. Although housing was a recurring theme for the Trudeau Liberals, people did not believe the government’s plans were working: real estate prices continued to rise, with demand outstripping supply.
This disconnect has been reflected in public polls, which have placed the Liberals consistently and sometimes significantly behind the Conservatives since Poilievre took power in 2022.
Trudeau said he was eager to run against Poilievre, and as questions about his political future grew louder, he stubbornly insisted he would lead the Liberals into the next election. The underdog was ready for a fight.
But in the end, it wasn’t a fight with the Conservatives that brought down Trudeau. In the best tradition of the Liberal Party of Canada, it was his own party that abandoned him.
Hope and (increasingly) hard work
There is always a gap between a politician’s ambition and the results he obtains. But at times during the Trudeau era – particularly towards the end – this gap seemed particularly pronounced.
Yet while Trudeau’s legacy will be debated for years to come, there is no denying that his governments accomplished great things. Carbon pricing, once a political third road in Canada, was seen as a transformative environmental policy – even if its future is uncertain under a Conservative government.
Child care deals with provinces could significantly reduce costs for new parents, who also receive larger child care checks under the Liberals’ Canada Child Benefit. Various tax changes – some carried out, others aborted – have changed the narrative about taxing the wealthy in an era of growing income inequality.
Other major changes have brought significant challenges. The Liberals dramatically increased their immigration targets, welcoming more newcomers each year, until backlash over lack of housing and access to health care – which some blamed on immigrants instead as to provincial governments – forcing them to reconsider their ambitions.
Trudeau’s early embrace of deficits – contrary to the balanced budget orthodoxy of Stephen Harper’s Conservatives – was seen as a turning point in the 2015 election and fueled the Liberals’ spending programs. But the prime minister’s apparent indifference to fiscal prudence ended up costing him two finance ministers, Bill Morneau and, more recently and disastrously for Trudeau, Chrystia Freeland. It also aroused the constant anger of the business world and the more “centrist” liberals who emerged during the era of Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin.
And even though Trudeau has constantly told his ministers that reconciliation with Indigenous peoples must be at the heart of their work, the government estimates that there are still 31 long-term drinking water advisories on 29 reserves — nine years after the Liberals promised to end it.
But any discussion of Trudeau’s legacy will have to take into account how the Liberals navigated two simultaneous crises: the COVID-19 pandemic and U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to the Canadian economy.
A full assessment of how Canada has handled the outbreak should include measures taken by provinces and local governments to slow the spread of the virus. But the federal government’s two flagship policies – the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS) – have helped millions of people keep their jobs and keep their lights on during the worst days of the confinement period.
Trudeau was extremely visible to Canadians during this time, regularly giving press conferences from the steps of Rideau Cottage.
After Trump’s first election in 2016, Trudeau’s office launched a “Team Canada” approach – calling on the federal cabinet, provincial premiers and business leaders from across the political spectrum to try to save the relations with the country’s largest trading partner.
Although there were bumps along the way – like having to fight back after the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum products – the Trudeau government ultimately managed to renegotiate a new trilateral free trade agreement with the United States and Mexico.
COVID-19 is still here and Trump is back in the White House. Trudeau’s role in resolving these two issues will be intrinsically linked to any reflection on his tenure as prime minister.
What’s next for the liberals
Electorally, Trudeau must be among some of the most successful prime ministers in recent history, having won three consecutive elections and governing for almost a decade. Since 1979, only two other prime ministers — Chrétien and Harper — have won three consecutive elections.
Politically, Trudeau’s performance is murkier. He and a small team of advisers effectively remade the Liberal Party, cutting ties with the old guard, changing membership rules and revolutionizing the way the party runs its campaigns.
But there has also been criticism that under his leadership the party has become a cult of personality with an extremely small group of powerful figures calling the shots. At one point, Trudeau talked about empowering ministers and reducing the PMO’s grip on decision-making. Even liberal supporters will tell you that the opposite has happened.
What happens next will be difficult for the Liberals.
According to a national poll, the next leader could be considered a substitute. Horserace polls consistently suggest that the Liberals will be defeated by Poilievre’s resurgent Conservative Party in the next federal election, whenever it takes place.
The Liberals will never know for sure whether this would have changed if Trudeau had resigned earlier and given another leader more time to build a reputation and a new electoral machine. But it’s a safe bet that this hypothesis will be discussed in Ottawa for some time.