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As a journalist in Russia in the 1990s, I covered how a handful of oligarchs were behaving like bandits in the post-Soviet anarchy of the time. Following a pact reached at Davos, they intervened massively to help secure the re-election of President Boris Yeltsin in 1996. This led to what became known as the semibankirshchina – or rule of the seven bankers – until some oligarchs fell out among themselves and, more terminally, with Yeltsin’s successor, Vladimir Putin.
As they sometimes say, history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. And there are discordant echoes in the emergence of an oligarchy in the United States today, which revolves around some of the Magnificent Seven technology companies. “Today, an oligarchy is taking shape in America, of extreme wealth, power and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy,” Joe Biden warned this week in his speech. farewell speech as president. It is up to politicians, lawyers and the American people to tackle this “technology-industrial complex,” he said.
Led by Elon Musk, who spent more than 250 million dollars helping to re-elect Donald Trump, tech bosses flocked to Mar-a-Lago to trade favors with the new president and donate to his inauguration fund. What could we learn from the strategy manual and the experience of their Russian predecessors?
As cold businessmen, oligarchs expect, above all, a return on investment. In Russia, they benefited massively from the infamous loans-for-shares program, a rigged privatization process that allowed them to take control of some of the country’s most valuable oil and metals companies, including Yukos, Sibneft and Norilsk Nickel, at bargain prices.
Nothing comparable will happen in the United States. But Musk has already enjoyed a stunning return on his political investment. In the days following Trump’s re-election, the stock price of Musk’s automaker Tesla surged, adding more than $300 billion to its stock market value. There was also reports that Musk could gain ownership of TikTok’s US operations if the Chinese parent company is forced to divest this month.
Musk’s fellow tech titans also expect easing regulations — particularly around antitrust and crypto rules — and more support for their companies. Meta’s liberal former CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who pivoted as quickly as gymnast Simone Biles by removing fact-checking on Facebook, is now urging Trump to defend the US tech industry against interference from regulators at home. stranger.
Given their lack of institutional power, oligarchs attempt to influence politics by deploying weapons of mass information. Thus, in Russia, Vladimir Gusinsky headed the NTV channel and the Sevodnya newspaper, while Boris Berezovsky controlled the ORT channel and the Kommersant newspaper. In the United States, Musk has made X his personal political platform, while Zuckerberg runs Facebook and Amazon co-founder Jeff Bezos owns the Washington Post.
Russian oligarchs have gone even further by trying to take over the government by joining the government themselves. After Yeltsin’s re-election, Vladimir Potanin briefly served as first deputy prime minister. Berezovsky was appointed deputy head of the Security Council. As co-leader of Trump’s newly imagined project Ministry of Government EffectivenessMusk is not a regular government employee. But Doge is looking to recruit recruits to federal agencies in Washington to recommend ways to cut costs. Given Musk’s sprawling business operations, the potential conflicts of interest are glaring.
Perhaps the biggest lesson from Russia’s oligarchic era is that oligarchs often have a hard time understanding politics. In Russia, Mikhail Khodorkovsky went too far, upset Putin, and spent the next ten years in prison. Now Putin only tolerates his own internally trained oligarchs who do orders from the Kremlin.
As the narcissist in chief, Trump will not want to be overshadowed by others. But the biggest danger for America’s oligarchs could be a backlash from its restive Maga base. After clashing with Musk over immigration policy, Steve Bannonthe agitating former Trump adviser, denounced the world’s richest man as a “really bad guy” and vowed to bring him down.
Of course, America today differs from Russia in the 1990s in many ways. Moreover, stock market investors seem to believe that an injection of capitalist austerity into government will stimulate the economy rather than disfigure it. But America’s oligarchs may well discover that whatever their differences with their Russian counterparts, the dynamics of power and politics are universal. Those who ride a political tiger – and stumble – end up being mauled by it.