Welcome to the online version of From the political officean evening newsletter that brings you the latest reporting and analysis from the NBC News Politics team from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today’s edition, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki explains how New Jersey could provide an early test for Donald Trump’s coalition. Additionally, national political reporter Sahil Kapur finds that senators from both parties are skeptical of Trump’s recent call for a Dreamers deal.
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A blue state could be a first test for the Trump coalition
By Steve Kornacki
One of Donald Trump’s biggest gains this year took place in one of the most optimistic states in the country: New Jersey. The new president lost the Garden State to Kamala Harris by 6 pointsa double-digit improvement over its 16-point margin of defeat against Joe Biden in 2020.
The key to Trump’s increased support has been considerable gains among Hispanic voters, part of a national trend this was even more pronounced in New Jersey, where just over one in five residents is Hispanic. He also made notable gains with Asian American voters and with Muslim and Arab American voters in a few pockets of the state, while strengthening his already strong position in Orthodox Jewish areas – again, these are consistent trends observed across the country.
A major question The question emerging from the 2024 election is whether Republicans can maintain this new demographic coalition — and build on it — without Trump himself on the ballot. This positions New Jersey’s next gubernatorial contest in 2025 as a potential early test.
The magnitude of some of the changes this year in New Jersey is staggering. In the six major cities or towns where Hispanics make up more than 70% of the population, the margin has moved at least 20 points in Trump’s direction compared to 2020. And it’s even more dramatic compared to 2016 .
Increased Hispanic support for Trump also made the state’s largest city, Newark, a less important vote bank for Democrats. Nearly half of the city’s 305,000 residents are black, but the Hispanic population is growing and now makes up nearly 40 percent of Newark’s population. Trump was crushed in the city again this year, losing 58 points to Kamala Harris, but that’s actually a significant improvement over the 85-point loss he suffered during his first campaign in 2016.
A similar story is playing out in the North Jersey town of Palisades Park, home to one of the highest concentrations of Korean Americans in the country. Trump lost Palisades Park, which is 63% Asian American, by just 5 points in November, compared to 22 points in 2020 and 32 points in 2016.
And then there’s Lakewood, home to one of the largest Orthodox Jewish communities outside of Israel. The township’s population has more than doubled from 60,000 in 2000 to nearly 140,000 according to last year’s census estimates, with no slowdown in sight. It has become a major source of support for the Republican Party statewide, one that Trump has taken to new heights. During his first campaign in 2016, Trump led Lakewood by 50 points. Last November, he increased that figure to 75 points.
In the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial race, Democrats are obviously hoping that the demographic gains made by Trump are specific to Trump. And they have at least some reason to be optimistic: In the race to open the Senate this year, Democrat Andy Kim outperformed Harris in all of these areas. In Passaic, for example, he beat his Republican opponent by 6 points, a net improvement of 13 points over Harris.
But Republicans can also take heart from the fact that even though Kim beat out Harris, her level of support in those communities still tended to be significantly lower than that of Democrats before Trump.
So all of these places will be worth watching closely as the gubernatorial race unfolds.
Senators skeptical of Trump’s call for bipartisan deal on Dreamers
By Sahil Kapur
When President-elect Donald Trump told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that he interested in making a deal With Democrats protecting Dreamers brought to the United States at a young age, some senators felt a tinge of deja vu.
“We need to do something for the Dreamers because these are people who were brought here very young. And many of them are now middle-aged people. They don’t even speak the language of their country,” Trump told moderator Kristen Welker. “I will work with Democrats on a plan.”
Asked about Trump’s remarks, top Senate Republicans did not close the door on a deal, but they sounded a note of skepticism about the prospects.
“We’ll see. The sweet spot on immigration reform has repeatedly eluded us. But obviously, if there’s a bipartisan desire to address this issue, then I’m certainly open to what we can do,” said new Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. “It would be better in the long run if we could find legislative solutions, but over the last few administrations everything has been done through executive action. Something will therefore be needed to break this impasse.
Trump used similar rhetoric during his first term, but his actions told a different story. As president in 2017, he sought to end the DACA program which protected undocumented immigrants who arrived in the United States as children from deportation. And in 2018, when Sens. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., and Angus King, I-Maine, struck a bipartisan deal to give Dreamers legal status while giving Trump money for his border wallthe Trump White House successfully fought to kill the agreement because it did not also limit family immigration.
Senate Judiciary Chairman Dick Durbin, D-Ill., who sponsored the original Dream Act in 2001, said he was “listening carefully” to Trump’s comments on the issue Sunday and welcomed the discussions .
“My ears perked up. After 23 years, I’m ready,” he said. “Anytime and anywhere, let’s sit down. »
“But there are reasons to be skeptical, even cynical,” Durbin added.
More reactions from the MTP interview: Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., who chaired the now-defunct House committee on Jan. 6, objected to Trump’s suggestion during his “Meet the Press” interview that former Panel members should be imprisoned. Read more →
🗞️ The best stories of the day
- ➡️McConnell Update: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, 82, is recovering from minor injuries after a fall after the weekly Senate Republican luncheon Tuesday, his office said. Read more →
- ⚾ On the plate: Trump will fight for Tulsi Gabbard, his pick to be the nation’s top intelligence official, who is facing increased scrutiny when he meets with senators this week. Read more →
- 🏃 Get operational: As Trump seeks to fill many key administration positions with outsiders, his pick for acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement chief, Caleb Vitello, has decades of experience at the agency . Read more →
- 🩺 Home visit: Democratic senators want answers from Mehmet Oz over his “previous advocacy for Medicare privatization” as he seeks to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. Read more →
- 📝 Final report: The bipartisan House task force investigating the assassination attempts against Trump has released its final report, including dozens of recommendations. Read more →
- 📔 It is classified: During his first term, Trump’s Justice Department secretly obtained the phone and text message records of 43 members of Congress and two congressmen during a leak investigation. Read more →
- 🚫 I will not back down: New York Attorney General Letitia James has rejected Trump’s request to withdraw from her office’s $486 million civil fraud judgment against him. Read more →
- ⚡ Youth movement: A growing group of younger, more energetic House Democrats are challenging seasoned veterans for powerful congressional posts, upending the party’s long-standing practice of respecting seniority. Read more →
- 🇨🇦 Hello neighbor: Trump posted a message on social media mocking Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as the “governor” of the “great state of Canada.” Read more →
That’s all that’s coming from the politburo for now. If you have any comments (like or dislike), please email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
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