What Forensic Psychology and Evolutionary Biology Tell Us About How to Defeat The Traitors

Hoods up, torches lit, knives sharpened: viewers across the UK are ready for another delicious finale of The traitors tonight’s game show where the contestants attempt to expose the ruthless (not strictly real) murderers who walk among them.

For psychologists – professional and armchair – The traitors is a goldmine of sneaky human behavior to sort through and analyze. And it’s not just psychology. Game theory, human evolution, and criminology are just a few of the scientific fields that offer clues to the series’ Machiavellian dynamics.

We asked betrayal experts (academicly…) to find out what it really takes to win. The traitors. Warning: spoilers ahead if you’re not aware of the show.

Beware of conformity bias

“Having a strong characteristic seems to be something that others perceive as influential and potentially threatening,” explains the forensic psychologist. Clea Wrightwhich hosts a podcast about The traitors with colleagues at the University of Chester, UK. She singles out candidates like Yin (too smart), Elen (too emotional) and Armani (too confident).

Their falls are probably linked to conformity biasthe trait in humans that makes most of us conform to social norms. Individuals who do not conform may be hated or distrusted.

This is not the place for altruism

Emilie Emmetevolutionary anthropologist at University College London, says players should keep in mind that “in the evolutionary literature, altruism doesn’t really exist.”

“Remember, this is not a cooperative game,” she said. “It’s a game of deception, a game of survival. You have to be there at the end to win. This is a mistake some players make because they trust their loved ones too much.

Emmott says we evolved to help ourselves before others, so any altruistic behavior seen in the series has a selfish benefit. And such apparent altruism is not a bad tactic, whether one is loyal or treacherous.

“In the context of gaming, being cooperative is a sign of trustworthiness. A good example might be not openly reaching for the shield (which protects you from the next kill) during the series tasks.

But this is where Machiavellian intelligence comes in: because everyone knows the rules of the game, a good player will not take altruistic behavior literally. “In this game, it’s not an honest signal because there might be ulterior motives for your cooperation,” says Emmott.

So watch out for the nice guys. A analysis of thousands of messages between the players of Diplomacya game that shares similarities with The traitorsfound that excessively polite players were more likely to betray others.

Beware of prejudice within the group

“We know from social psychology that when people form social groups, they have what is called a in-group biasand this can be really accelerated in The traitors“, says Wright. “(The contestants) display preferential behavior towards people who are in the group with them.” This is why everything went wrong for Minah after she recruited Charlotte as a traitor.

For Minah, who always recruited traitorous women, her group was the so-called sisterhood that she had created. “She really identified it as a sisterhood, she used the word a lot,” Wright says. “The problem is that Charlotte already had a strong group identity among the faithful. So when she was recruited, somewhat against her will, she had no allegiance to the new group.

And what happened? Charlotte immediately double-crossed Minah, and Minah was voted out the next night.

Wright says the same biases within the group can lead to a herd mentality when players vote and an illogical trust in those involved in the game.

What makes a good liar?

Nervous or incoherent responses to questions are usually viewed with suspicion, even if someone is telling the truth. That’s because these behaviors are linked to stereotypes about what people think about liars. A better reward is people who always say the same thing, says Emma Barrettpsychologist and criminologist at the University of Manchester, United Kingdom.

“One thing to watch out for is someone who always tells the same story in exactly the same way and doesn’t really elaborate when they tell it,” she says. A story may seem plausible, but when we repeat it, we usually add details as we remember them. “People sometimes confuse consistency with honesty. But that’s not how recall works in authentic memories.

Think like a scientist

“The mark of a good detective is a high tolerance for ambiguity. They won’t come to a conclusion quickly,” says Barrett. It’s like thinking like a scientist: “You might have a plausible hypothesis about something.” Next, you will question the assumptions you are making and the gaps in your understanding. You must actively seek out evidence that disproves the hypothesis you are generating.

The faithful are not very good at this The traitorsbut another tactic they might use is to encourage a suspected traitor to talk more than he or she would like. It’s about giving them enough rope to hang themselves, Barrett says.

“If you are loyal, a good strategy for detecting a traitor is to subtly encourage them to talk,” she says. “For example, if you were a police officer and you wanted to know if someone had given you a false address, you might ask yourself: ‘Oh, how do you get there, what is the nearest train station?’ » »

When in doubt, try game theory?

A poorly informed majority will always lose to a fully informed minority. It is on this basis that the Russian psychologist Dimitry Davidoff created Mafia – the board game on which The traitors was founded – in the 1980s. Since then, Mafia has been used as the basis for many experiments and game theory models.

The good news is that Davidoff wasn’t entirely right. He believed that the probability of the faithful unmasking the wicked is no better than chance. But many of the studies those who model the game find that the odds of victory are roughly equal – and even lean in favor of the faithful in live matches, perhaps due to the weight of the lies the traitors must tell.

In other words, forget cold math. If you really want to win The traitorsyou just have to be sneakier than everyone else.