Canadians love American alcohol, spending hundreds of millions for their favorite drinks each year. But a tariff war between the two countries could put in a bad Canadian mood.
US President Donald Trump could strike Canada with price As of next week, increasing the risks that Ottawa would impose reprisal prices in the United States In the midst of the growing fears of a trade war.
“If the president chooses to carry out prices in Canada, Canada will respond and everything is on the table,” said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at a press conference in Montebello, Quebec.
Trudeau reported that Canada’s counter-vaulses could cover the value of the prices offered by Trump 25% on all Canadian goods.
“I support the principle of dollar correspondence prices for dollar. This is something that we are going to absolutely look at if that is how they advance, “he told journalists.
One of these potential targets based on previous reprisals? American alcohol.
In 2023, alcohol exports in the United States to Canada amounted to $ 262 million ($ 377 million Eziric dollars) per year, with American whiskey representing US $ 76 million ($ 110 million C) of that.
Jack Cunningham, assistant professor at Trinity College at the University of Toronto, told Global News that Kentucky Bourbon and Tennessee whiskey would be “perfectly fine targets” for Ottawa’s reprisal rates.
“Listen, I like the Kentucky Bourbon as much as anyone, but going without, it is a fairly modest drawback in the great scheme of things, especially when you look at it in the context of the serious damage that the tariff war would inflict both Savings, ”said Cunningham.
Nicholas Li, economist at the Toronto Metropolitan University, said the prices are not required to divert Canadian consumers from American alcohol.
The evidence, he said, appeared in the previous Trump pricing battle with the European Union.
“Only six years ago, Trump began a trade war with the EU, and one of the policies they adopted in the EU was like a 50% price on a lot of American products, especially Whiskey, “he said.
“The value of American whiskey exports to the EU has dropped by more than 20%.”
Sylvanus AFSORGBOR, professor in the Department of Food, Agriculture and Resources Economy of the University of Guelph, said that consumer behavior changes would depend on a concept called the elasticity of the demand – The change in demand for a product if its prices change.
“Whether the price increases or not, some people may always want to consume the same product because they have developed a taste for this. They may always want to buy even with a higher price, “he said.
He said the pricing threat is a reminder for Canada to turn to other business partners.
“We must think of diversification, because it seems that we depend very well on the United States”
Li said that elasticity will differentiate depending on the type of drink that sees an increase in prices.
“The elasticity of this demand is lower for beer. So, overall, if you increase beer taxes, it has a lower effect on beer consumption than if you increase, for example, taxes on spirits. »»
Get daily national news
Get the best news of the day, the titles of political, economic and current affairs, delivered in your reception box once a day.
He said big drinkers are more likely to replace the alcohol marks they drink, while occasional drinkers can tolerate higher cost options.
He said that a more important factor in determining consumer behavior allocates the space of shelves – something that is already a leading threat to Ontario.
“I sent a direction to the LCBO only if these prices clean each little alcohol of the shelves. Let’s start to promote more Ontario manufacturing wines and vodkas, minds. This is what we have to do, “Ontario Prime Minister Doug Ford said on Monday.
Ford encouraged other provinces to consider the same thing.
Li declared that the monopoly of the government of Ontario on alcohol sales in Ontario “gives them an enormous ability to dictate the behavior of consumers through things such as promotions, placement of shelves and, of course, Brands decision to store or not. “
What are the alternatives?
Davin de Kergommeaux is the author of Canadian whiskey: the essential portable expertA guide on Canadian whiskey. He said that lovers of Canadian whiskey do not need to worry about a lack of options if the American whiskey is outside the shelves or more expensive.
“I do not think that we should twist our hands because we have whiskey here which is just as pleasant in all categories – an entry level, average whiskey (quality) and premium whiskeys really of first order “He said.
“I think it’s just a question to go to the alcohol store and ask the clerk to help you if you can’t find it yourself.”
Kergommeaux said that if many Canadians have a taste for American whiskey, Canadian whiskey was historically popular in the south of the border. During two major events in American history – the American civil war and the era of prohibition – when American alcohol stocks were dry, the Americans looked north for a good whiskey.
“He has never lost this popularity. It is even more popular than American whiskey in the United States, “he said.
Joshua Richolt is the director of drinks at the NH collection New York Madison Avenue Hotel and was raised in Alberta.
“Canadian whiskey is already fundamentally the same spirit as American whiskey, because both are based on corn. Bourbon is more often distilled at lower evidence, however, and many more fellows, oils and other flavored agents are more strongly present accordingly, “he said.
However, experts say that there are also alternatives for bourbon.
Stephanie Lusk, chief and influencer of social media, said: “Another type of whiskey we have here in Canada is called rye whiskey and is made with Canadian wheat. It’s really great because there are so many different options and flavors and it is also closer to us. »»
Kergommeaux said the crisis could bring the opportunity for Canadian distillaries, while giving consumers a chance to “rediscover” Canadian whiskey.
What about wine and beer?
In 2024, Canada imported wine worth $ 51.4 million in the United States
Most American wines come from California, but Lusk says that there are domestic wine growth regions that Canadians could seek if they want to find more domestic options – in particular Niagara falls in Ontario in Ontario , and British Columbia.
Richolt said that Canadian craft beer already replaces American beer on many markets.
“I live in New York and I go home several times each year in Alberta. Beer is a local tradition and better served. There is nothing better than discovering smaller craft brasseries and their individual specialties, “he said.
“The most popular cocktail whiskey cocktail is sour whiskey. You can do it with any Canadian whiskey, “said Kergomageaux.
Lusk recommends using rye whiskey and giving it more of a Canadian touch.
“One of the beautiful things about Canadian whiskeys is that they really complete maple syrup,” she said.
Whiskey souers are generally made with whiskey, lemon juice, egg whites and simple syrup.
“You can replace simple syrup with maple syrup and bourbon with Canadian whiskey. And now you have a sour Canadian rye, “she said.
Richolt said most traditional recipes were not originally based on Bourbon.
“The rye, which was more common, can often be substituted and often in the best cocktail bars in the world. Many of the best rye producers in the world are in Canada, simply ask Whistlepig, High West and many other American brands that use Canadian rye, “he said.
Lusk noted that there are also non -alcoholic options.
“There are whiskeys, wines, beers. The simple fact of having something in your hand during a party or during an event, often gives you the impression of being part and that you forget that you do not even drink alcohol at all ”, she said.
Lusk also recommends looking for recipes for cocktails.
“They still have a little sugar, however,” she said.